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When Markets Cooperate but Results Don’t

Phillips 66 owns a refining system that should be capable of delivering durable, peer-leading returns. The assets are advantaged, the footprint is diverse, and the workforce is experienced. Yet over the past several years, refining has remained a primary source of earnings volatility and inconsistent performance, rather than a stabilizing value engine.

That outcome ultimately sits with leadership.

Under Rich Harbison, Phillips 66 refining has not consistently translated operational capability into shareholder value. While individual sites often perform well, the system as a whole has struggled to demonstrate sustained margin capture or downside protection relative to best-in-class peers such as Valero.

This is not simply an operational issue—it is a commercial and leadership failure.

Phillips 66 frequently points to favorable market cracks and commercial optionality as evidence that refining should perform well. But market cracks do not create value on their own. Value is created when trading, optimization, and asset operations work together to capture those signals consistently and manage volatility when conditions turn.

That responsibility extends beyond refining leadership to the commercial organization.

Under Brian Mandell and Mark Hughes, Phillips 66 has expanded its commercial and trading footprint and repeatedly described it as a differentiator. The implication is clear: stronger trading capability should enhance margin capture and smooth earnings.

The results do not support that claim.

Despite periods of attractive market cracks, Phillips 66 has failed to consistently convert market structure into superior refining returns. Upside capture has been uneven. Downside exposure has been abrupt. Trading appears unable to reliably translate market opportunity into durable value at the enterprise level.

When trading cannot deliver the value implied by the market environment, it ceases to be a hedge or differentiator and becomes just another source of noise layered onto an already volatile business.

This raises uncomfortable questions about focus and accountability.

Valero’s advantage is not just asset quality—it is clarity. Its leadership team is singularly focused on refining and commercial execution. There are no competing internal priorities, no portfolio narratives to balance, and no ambiguity about what success looks like. That focus shows up in more consistent margin capture and more reliable shareholder outcomes.

Phillips 66, by contrast, splits leadership attention across refining, marketing, a growing trading organization, midstream, and chemicals. In that environment, refining leadership must be forceful and commercial leadership must be exceptional. Instead, the system appears fragmented, with no one clearly accountable for turning market opportunity into sustained returns.

This is not a workforce problem. Refineries run. Traders trade. Commercial teams work hard. The issue is coordination, discipline, and leadership effectiveness at the top.

When refining volatility continues to dominate results, when market cracks fail to translate into value, and when trading is invoked more often as an explanation than as a solution, accountability becomes unavoidable.

Phillips 66 has the assets.
It has the markets.
What it lacks is leadership leverage.

Until refining and commercial leadership are held accountable for profitability, volatility management, and peer-relative capture—not just activity and presence—refining will remain a source of frustration rather than a foundation for shareholder value.

The assets deserve better integration.
Shareholders deserve better outcomes.


upside down

speaking only from my own expereince, i find myself conflicted about how easy it feels to change roles at amazon once you are inside the inner circle.
on one hand, that fluidity creates opprotunity and can feel empowering, but it also leaves me wondering whether rigor and claritiy are getting lost at senior levels...
i rarely see an l8 write a single one pager that clearly articulats direction or strategy, and instead watch strategy turn into a collage of documents owned by l6s and l7s defending their own space.

i may be missing context or blind to constraints, but it makes me question what strong leadreship really looks like here and whether i fully understand the system i am part of...


Replace Farley with Barra to be successful

Mary is making things happen over at GM, actually announcing subscription REVENUE numbers. $2 BILLION current, $$5 BILLION future commitments.

From Business Insider:

Mary Barra, GM's CEO, boasted major gains in the company’s subscription base.

General Motors said its in-vehicle tech services generated nearly $2 billion last year.
GM sells three main subscription products: safety features, in-car internet access, and hands-free driver assistance.

GM told Business Insider it plans to add features through updates over time, reducing the need for new car parts.

General Motors has been pulling a Tim Cook and boosting its software and subscription business.

During the automaker's Tuesday earnings call, CEO Mary Barra highlighted the rapid growth of GM's in-vehicle software and subscription business.

In the past nine months, GM's software generated $2 billion, and customers have already signed up for about $5 billion in future subscriptions.

The company said it now has 11 million subscribers for its OnStar safety system, up 34% from a year earlier. Another half a million customers are also paying for Super Cruise, its hands-free driver-assistance system.

Now, that's still just a fraction of its total revenue, which was $45.29 billion in the last quarter alone. But the margins on those services are also higher than on cars sales.

GM says its software business keeps roughly 70 cents of every dollar it brings in. That's a rare level of profitability in the auto industry, as many car sales generate just four to 10 cents per sales dollar.

"We are also executing plans to grow software and services like OnStar and Super Cruise to generate even greater revenue during and after each vehicle sale," Barra said on the call. "We think there's a growth opportunity there with very attractive margins."

"Software and services are becoming increasingly important to how customers experience GM vehicles and how we deliver value beyond the initial purchase," a spokesperson told Business Insider.

The company also said it will keep adding features and services to vehicles over time, rather than relying on hardware upgrades.

"As vehicles become more software-defined, we can introduce new digital experiences through updates and optional services rather than hardware changes," the spokesperson added.

The subscriptions push comes as automakers look for new ways to make money after cars leave the dealership lot — especially as Detroit automakers roll out new electric vehicles.


Feb 4. Earnings Call

Another earnings call is just around the corner. How do you think Leahy and Miralles spin Q4, CY 25 and the lowest stock price in 5 years?

I'm sure we will hear they cracked the code with the new GTM strategy and "all-weather team".

From my perspective, the single, most important question that needs to be asked is, "Given all the acquisitions, all the layoffs and the all the restructuring, why should we believe this leadership team is the team to return CDW to profitable revenue growth?"


Are they really d-mb or not getting the real information from their as* kissers or good liars?

I cannot believe the words coming out from these so called leaders mouth. I guess as long as they can travel the world and enjoy in company’s cost - they don’t care. It will be another company that goes to ground.


Thanks Bob — Our Chief Employee Experience Minimization Officer

You and your team have effectively minimized my role overnight—reducing my title without reducing my job scope, responsibilities, but a title without clarity.

This change has materially damaged my external career prospects by assigning me a generic, market-irrelevant title that obscures both my seniority and expertise. The removal of visible seniority in title is not a cosmetic issue; it directly impacts credibility, mobility, and future opportunity.

The so-called career compass, intended to provide clarity on roles and responsibilities, delivers neither. Instead, it functions as a mechanism for devaluation stripping definition while simultaneously narrowing both current and future prospects.

I am not alone in this assessment. I have heard from multiple employees who are similarly unhappy and confused by these changes, particularly the disconnect between stated intent and actual impact on employee experience.


As a frontier employee coming in...

Holy he'll how has this place kept together? No one knows anything, no direction, no purpose, all leaders are clueless and at the same time thinking they will do the same as last year. Silos out the a**. It has only been a week and I am looking for the exit. This is going to be a 5 year minimum turnaround and it will be a bloodbath and stress factory for anyone who stays. God bless you verizon folks, it can be so much better elsewhere.


It’s not fair to blame upper management for a lack of vision

It has been indicated, here, that upper management is responsible for a lack of growth caused by a lack of vision and innovation. Further, this lack of growth coupled with inflation causes reductions in the workforce (i.e., packages, attrition, and layoffs).

Blaming upper management for this situation is disingenuous. Any person at the company could have innovated on their own and brought about a different outcome. Management facilitated this possibility by providing Innovation Day for creatives to demonstrate their genius. The lack of effect implies little about management and speaks more to the dire lack of contributor capabilities.

It could have been a different world.


Cuts and more cuts

Everyone is being told they have to make do with less, and the next 12-18 months are going to be very challenging, rough, bumpy, tenuous. Masked words to likely mean layoffs, possible merit and/or AIP freezes or worse. Does anyone else find it interesting that the new interim CEO and these events all line up? Isn’t he a finance guy? Are we experiencing exactly what they hired him to do?


Sick of all the Dan hate!

Seriously, the dude has only been in charge for 3 months and the peanut gallery is already taking pot shots at him - from the way he sips coffee to way he presents himself at Davos. Like seriously, the only thing that should matter is what the shareholders think? Not some joe blow from Tampa who is living in his mom's basement. Unlike the previous guy, Dan is at least willing to shake up the status quo in order to make VZ into a lean, mean machine.

What do folks seriously want him to do? Continue with the same old formula where we continue to get our a**es handed down to us by TMUS quarter after quarter or compete by changing the firm radically?


Why is this company so tone deaf?

Stock is down nearly 20% today and the message from the top is about mission and culture and embracing AI. Only one sentence about Medicare rate notice. If anyone watched the Capitol Hill hearing from last week, both parties are gunning for us. Yet leadership is going on about re-energizing our culture (whatever that means). So tone deaf.


Sara Wechter Chief Human Resources Officer must go!

As a senior woman at this bank, I am appalled at the handling of the bully and harasser Andy Sieg. The HR team here is the absolutely worse. In fact, Sara told us at a meeting of senior women that she knows nothing about HR and is just "fake it till you make it".
Jane, do us all a favor and go hire someone who understands the important role HR can play when led by someone with integrity and an ounce of employee advocacy.


Eleanor D's org chart is insane

Literally, 400-500 people report into her/her directs. Some of her direct D's have 40-50 people by themselves. What exactly is she delivering for Citi? DCRM? That's a joke - the data concerns are not resolved by her team. Her data concern team, led by her MD Donna G, are glorified p;roject managers setting up meetings for others to resolve the problems. Why do they need so many people? Reference data? That by itself is a joke at Citi considering that security master central itself has so many issues with data accuracy. At smaller firms, her team alone would make up 50% of the org. This is highway robbery.


Intel CFO

I don't get it, how is Dave Zinsner still CFO at Intel? This guy miss managed Intel Finances for the last 4+ years and yet he is still there! I don't get it. His latest comment is about miss reading (or underestimated) Server demand is just mind blowing.

This guy should of been kicked out back in December 2024, yet he is still here. Is the board filled with a bunch of circus clowns or something!.


Platform X ghost

I see that ex boss of platform X is still in the company after catastrophic failure of her product. At the same time, 200 of hard working people from PX build team were fired. The captain should go down with the ship, but this rat escaped first and now attending conferences across the globe to sell thin air.


every. single. year.

pepsico lays off every year. every. dang. year. at some point they’ll have to cut the overlaid matrix orgs — especially any group with “global” in the name. but this probably isn’t that year. there are still plenty of white-collar u.s. jobs that can be cut and re-assigned to india and mexico.

pepsico is dangerously close to a real brain drain in the american market. most analysts and lower-level management are now abroad — and, frankly, wholly inept — which means there’s no street-level understanding of the u.s. market. you could definately blame christy jacoby and brent crombie for that mess, whether they’ll ever recieve accountability or not.


TFB Sound off

Here we are end of January and still no clear direction of what’s ahead of us. RoE’s / Dirty Data, “stay tuned”
After GF all hands call last week… I’m feeling we are about to see a HUGE jump in quota this year.

I will say that I was thankful leadership recognized the cluster F of a rollout this was and making us whole for January was the T-Mobile I remember.


Advice for Dan after watching him at Davos

Dan, respectfully, you represent all of us and I was a little embarrassed by your appearance on the HBR panel at Davos. For next time, here are 3 pieces of advice:
1.) Shave.
2.) Sit up. Don't slouch. Posture's a huge non-verbal.
3.) If wearing a black top, thoroughly brush it off before go-live.
What was on display did not seem to represent the focus and determination of Verizon employees to restore this company to greatness. Thanks.