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Microsoft’s Results Weaken IBM’s Memory-Shortage Explanation

IBM attributed part of its weak quarter to customers redirecting budgets toward servers, storage and memory amid supply constraints and expected price increases.

Microsoft faced the same component pressures—and much greater exposure to AI infrastructure costs—yet reported:

18% revenue growth
43% Azure growth
18% operating-income growth
$59.3 billion in Microsoft Cloud revenue
$41 billion of quarterly capital investment

IBM, by comparison, reported:

1% total revenue growth
5% software growth
7% infrastructure decline
• A reduced 4%–5% constant-currency growth outlook

This does not prove IBM customers experienced no budget pressure. It does suggest that memory shortages alone are an incomplete explanation.

Microsoft is absorbing higher infrastructure costs because customers are prioritizing its cloud and AI platforms. IBM appears to be losing spending because customers are prioritizing those platforms instead of IBM’s mainframes and traditional software.

That points less to a temporary supply-chain issue and more to a competitive-positioning problem.

[Microsoft results]
(https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast) [IBM investor letter]
(https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-07-14-Arvind-Krishnas-Letter-to-IBM-Investors) | [Yahoo Finance analysis]
(https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/microsofts-41-billion-ai-bet-just-cleared-a-major-test-chart-of-the-day-100000116.html)


The Shareholder Gawds Have Been Appeased

ST. LOUIS, July 28, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Centene Corporation (NYSE: CNC) (the Company) announced today its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. In summary, the 2026 second quarter results were as follows:

Total revenues (in millions) $53,579
Premium and service revenues (in millions)
$44,375
Health benefits ratio 89.6 %
SG&A expense ratio 7.0 %
Adjusted SG&A expense ratio (1) 6.9 %
GAAP diluted earnings per share $2.19
Adjusted diluted earnings per share (1) $2.51
Total cash flow provided by operations (in millions) $3,590


Update Tuesday was good color, Cuts

Citi logged about $800 million in severance expenses in the first half of the year and may set aside more for the second half, executives said Tuesday.
The New York-based lender had about 219,000 employees as of the second quarter, down about 5% from the year-earlier quarter (230,000 employees), and about 2% from the first quarter (224,000), according to a second-quarter earnings presentation.
“We may look at accelerating some of the structural efficiency actions and, in that case, take more severance in the second half,” Citi CFO Gonzalo Luchetti said during a conference call with analysts, declining to provide more detail. “If we see opportunities, we may do a bit more than we originally envisioned.”


Reminder of IBM's debt (to worsen later this month)

IBM's debt grew 5.2 billion dollars in the 3 months leading up to the last report:

https://finbox.com/NYSE:IBM/explorer/total_debt/

R.A. stands for redundant assets, maybe Arvind can sell IBM's trademark and goodwill to raise money.

"IBM goodwill and intangible assets for the quarter ending March 31, 2026 were $89.333B, a 13.86% increase year-over-year."

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/IBM/ibm/goodwill-intangible-assets-total


Sinking ship?

Cost of HSI is more than the revenue it generates. 3% HSI customers occupies more than 50% of network capacity.
Hence more layoffs to reduce overall costs.
Stock price stays high bcoz the volume is low average daily is less than 1/10th volume of Verizon or AT&T.
Markets are getting tricked but will this continue?


NkE Market Cap Shrinks to 1/5 its Value in 5 Years

Nike Inc
NYSE: NKE
42.38 USD -117.37 (-73.47%) past 5 years
Jul 1, 1:11 PM EST

The USD in real terms is 24.3% less valuable in that same 5 year period, which means NKE market cap has collapsed to less than 1/5 its value 5 years ago.

"Believe in Something, Even if it Means Sacrificing Errr-Thang!"


BNY - to serve mankind

In 2023, BNYM had 53,400 FT employees. In the annual report for 2025, there were 48,100 FT employees. Today there are 47,200 and dropping. That’s $1B in cash cuts being counted as profit!!! BNY is hiding poor negative cash flow without truly running and growing the business!!!!! BNY has reduced headcount 12% in 3 years and AI has had nothing to do with it. It’s easy to say your BMI is lower if you cut off a leg. It however doesn’t mean you are able and healthy. Of the 6200 FTE’s who have been consumed by Robin’s ‘cannibits’ , you can be assured that a very high percentage of these were so called bottom performers…..
Yes, RV’s strategy is the ‘serve mankind cookbook’ from the ‘Twilight Zone’.


DXC - a company in decline

Here’s the full picture. The data is sobering.


## DXC Technology: Market Analysis

### Stock Price — 5-Year Collapse

The trajectory is consistent destruction of value: from a 2018 average of ~$80 (peak $93), the stock fell 35% that year, another 28% in 2019, another 30% in 2020. A brief recovery of 25% in 2021 was the last positive year.

From there: -17.7% in 2022, -13.7% in 2023. Into 2024 it was trading around $22–23. The 52-week high was $16.45 in July 2025 — already half of where it was in 2023. The 52-week low hit $7.90 in May 2026. YTD return as of mid-2026: -43.89%.

From $93 peak to ~$8–9 today. That is roughly a 90% destruction of equity value over 8 years.

The consensus from 8 analysts is “Hold.” Average price target: $11.43. BMO Capital lowered its target to $10 from $17, keeping Market Perform. Nobody is bullish. “Hold” at $8–9 is essentially “we don’t know how much further this falls.”


### Revenue — Uninterrupted Decline

Annual revenue of approximately $13.7 billion in FY2024, a decline of over two billion dollars from FY2022.

FY2025 came in at $12.87 billion, down 5.82%. Revenue in the last twelve months (to December 2025) is $12.68 billion, down 3.09% year-over-year.

The most recent quarter: Q4 FY2026 total revenue of $3.13 billion, down 1.2% year-over-year on a reported basis — but down 6.6% on an organic basis. The nominal improvement in reported numbers is forex noise, not operational recovery.

The full organic picture over FY2025: Q1: -4.4%, Q2: -5.6%, Q3: -4.2%, Q4: -4.2%. Full year organic decline: -4.6%. The GIS segment is worse: GIS organic revenue growth across FY2025 was Q1: -9.3%, Q2: -9.6%, Q3: -7.8%, Q4: -6.0% — full year -8.2%.

This is not a one-quarter blip. It is a structural, multi-year revenue haemorrhage.


### “No New Business” — The Book-to-Bill Problem

This is the core issue you’ve identified. In Q1 FY2025, the book-to-bill ratio was 0.77x — compared to 0.89x in Q1 FY2024. A book-to-bill below 1.0 means the company is booking less revenue than it is recognising — i.e., the backlog is shrinking. Consistently below 1.0 is a company consuming itself.

Q2 FY2025 overall book-to-bill: 0.90x. GIS specifically: 0.71x. GIS — their largest segment — was winning less than 71 cents of new work for every dollar of revenue recognised. That is accelerated decline built into future numbers.

The more recent figures look marginally better: Q2 FY2026 trailing twelve-month book-to-bill: 1.15x, with GIS at 1.08x on TTM basis. But context matters — Q4 FY2026 bookings gave a book-to-bill of 1.07x , and organic revenue still fell 6.6% that quarter. Booking more doesn’t reverse the run-off from long-term contracts signed years ago that are now expiring or being reduced.

DXC has made zero acquisitions since November 2019. Over the last five years, the average number of acquisitions per year is zero. There is no inorganic growth play. They are entirely dependent on winning organic new business — which they have been structurally failing to do for years.


### Profitability and Cash — The Complicating Factor

DXC is not going to zero next quarter. Full fiscal year 2026 free cash flow was $713 million, up 3.8% year-over-year. The company repurchased $250 million of shares in FY2026.

Gross margin remained relatively stable at 24.09%, and adjusted EBIT margins are being maintained.

But: GAAP EBIT in Q4 FY2026 was negative — $(39) million, a margin of -1.2%. The gap between non-GAAP “adjusted” figures and GAAP reality has been persistently large due to restructuring charges, amortisation, and pension adjustments. The company has been in near-permanent “restructuring” mode for years.

ROIC is below WACC. The company is destroying economic value — it is worth less each year as an operating entity than the capital tied up in it.


### Can It Survive?

Survival as a listed independent company: questionable beyond 3–5 years without a revenue inflection that has not yet materialised.

The structural problem is this: DXC is a legacy IT outsourcer. Its model — large long-term managed services contracts, rates × hours pricing — is being eroded by cloud migration (clients bring workloads in-house or to hyperscalers), offshore competition (TCS, Infosys, Wipro at lower cost), and now AI automation eating into the billable hour. The CEO acknowledges this directly: “The era of rates times hours is ending.” True. The question is whether DXC can pivot to something else before the existing base runs off.

FY2027 guidance anticipates further revenue decline but margin stability, with AI-driven offerings cited as future support. Every IT services company is saying the same thing about AI. DXC is late to that narrative and has no obvious differentiation.

The most likely exit is acquisition. There have been renewed reports of private equity interest, and in late 2022 a Baring Private Equity Asia takeover was rumoured but fell through. At ~$4.1 billion market cap generating $700M+ of free cash flow annually, the FCF yield is enormous — it is obviously a PE target. The asset would be stripped, carved up, and the cash flow harvested while the workforce is cut.

A shareholder lawsuit investigation was launched in June 2026 , which adds legal distraction at a strategically vulnerable moment.


### Summary Assessment

Dimension Verdict
Stock price (5-year) -90% from peak, -44% YTD 2026
Revenue trend Organic decline ~4–9% every year since FY2020
New business Book-to-bill mostly <1.0 for years; recent marginal improvement
Inorganic growth Zero acquisitions since 2019
Cash generation Strong (~$700M FCF) — the one positive
Economic value creation Negative — ROIC below WACC
Competitive position Structural moat deterioration, no durable advantage
Survival as independent Uncertain — more likely PE acquisition than organic recovery

The cash generation is real and buys time. It also makes the company attractive to a buyer who can cut costs more aggressively than management has been willing to. The narrative around AI and “Xponential AI” and “OASIS” is exactly what a company in distress says. What matters is whether bookings translate into arrested revenue decline — and the gap between book-to-bill improving and organic revenue still falling 6.6% in Q4 FY2026 tells you there is a significant lag at best, a structural impossibility at worst.

The company is not dying this year. It is in managed, prolonged decline, and the probability of meaningful independent recovery is low.

Confidence: High on the factual picture; moderate on the 3–5 year outcome (acquisition vs. slow suffocation are both plausible; a genuine revenue turnaround is the low-probability scenario).


Summary of Losses: Neidorff vs. London

Era – Michael Neidorff (1996–2022)
Peak Quarterly Performance: $535 million (Q2 2021)
Annual Performance: Maintained profitability
Main Drivers: Pharmacy benefit manager legal settlements; COVID-19 utilization spikes

Era – Sarah London (2022–Present)
Peak Quarterly Loss: $6.6 billion (Q3 2025)
Peak Annual Performance: $6.7 billion net loss (Full-Year 2025)
Main Drivers: Federal Medicaid funding cuts; asset write-downs

Why is Sara London still the face of this company if she has cost the company Billions??


MotU “now tracking to become one of biggest box office bombs of all time.”

I didn’t realize this film was doing so bad, but I just saw a report that say, two weeks after being released, the new He-Man movie is “now tracking to become one of biggest box office bombs of all time.” Is this a something we should be worried about?


OpenAI losing billions, and has to cut prices?

Thats gotta be a great sign huh? Losing billions, needing to cut prices, and pushing a desperate hail mary IPO.

If we are saving humanity and curing cancer, why are they cutting prices before even figuring out how to make a single penny in profit?

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DUu3O7YkxMO/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==


Summary of the layoff Cycle reported by AI

The multi-wave timeline clarifies the structural pattern Oracle follows:
August 31, 2025 Layoff: Accounted for as a $402 million localized surge in Q1 FY26 (reported September 2025).
March 31, 2026 Layoff: Accounted for as an $823 million localized surge in Q4 FY26 (reported yesterday, June 10, 2026).
The Result: The accumulation of these massive structural waves is what compiled the overall $2.1 billion restructuring footprint, leaving the remaining ~$980 million reserve sitting clean on the books to fund the upcoming FY2027 phases.


It's good to see that layoffs no longer equal a stock surge, but the opposite

SentinelOne shares plunged in after-hours trading on Wall Street after the company published its first-quarter financial results and announced layoffs affecting 8% of its workforce. The cybersecurity company reported results that largely met expectations but issued a relatively weak forecast, sending the stock sharply lower in late trading.

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/r1goyeuxgx


Where's the accountability?

They always have an excuse on earnings calls. Covid, Presidential elections, war, gas prices, etc. When will analysts call their bluff? They’re so far off from paying off their debt. If they don’t do sell offs, they will continue to cut expenses (headcount) every quarter to make the numbers look better.

@e2+1kr1f5ck0 said it perfectly.


Snowflake Delivers +34% YoY

Snowflakes delivers a strong Q1.

Product revenue reached $1.33B, up 34% year-over-year, accelerating from 30% last quarter and 26% a year ago. Their strongest sequential dollar growth in company history.

They added 616 net new customers in the quarter (+38% YoY), and operating margin expanded over 300 basis points to 12%


StockStory is not impressed

Teradata (TDC)
Forward P/S Ratio: 1.9x

Why Do We Pass on TDC?

— Products, pricing, or go-to-market strategy may need some adjustments as its 3.7% average billings growth over the last year was weak

— Inability to adjust its cost structure while its revenue declined over the last year led to a 7.2 percentage point drop in the company’s operating margin

— Free cash flow margin is forecasted to shrink by 20.2 percentage points in the coming year, suggesting the company will consume more capital to keep up with its competitors.


VRP

Some people are suggesting / hoping that we'll get a VRP? Given the financial situation / stock value situation - what makes you think this may happen? I hope it will but everything I look at is so grim and I simply do not have any hope that a VRP may be in stars for us.


Capital Management is Struggling

Morningstar Percentile Rankings Through 5/23.

Fund Name Percentile Rank
MoA Intermediate Bond Fund 98
MoA Retirement Income Fund 94
MoA Clear Passage 2020 Fund 93
MoA Core Bond Fund 90
MoA Clear Passage 2050 Fund 85
MoA Clear Passage 2055 Fund 85
MoA Clear Passage 2060 Fund 84
MoA Clear Passage 2045 Fund 83
MoA Clear Passage 2070 Fund 83
MoA Clear Passage 2065 Fund 81
MoA Mid Cap Value Fund 80
MoA Clear Passage 2040 Fund 79
MoA Clear Passage 2035 Fund 77
MoA Clear Passage 2030 Fund 76
MoA Clear Passage 2025 Fund 75
MoA International Fund 74
MoA Conservative Allocation Fund67
MoA Mid Cap Growth Fund 62
MoA Catholic Values Index Fund 56
MoA Small Cap Value Fund 55
MoA Moderate Allocation Fund 54
MoA Aggressive Allocation Fund 52
MoA Balanced Fund 49
MoA Small Cap Equity Index Fund 45
MoA Mid Cap Equity Index Fund 38

The higher the percentile rank, the worse the performance. MOA funds have tanked. how is overpaid capital mismanagement going to spin this

time to sell Capital Management to raise revenue & get better returns