#market

Tough period ahead?

Just like that.

U.S. Stock Market (and Housing) -

☆ Heading towards a (Deep) Bear Market into 2027 (potentially into 2028).

■ Trump has (Already) provided the set-up for it to happen.

■ U.S. Stock Market (NASDAQ) has been in a (Downwards Spiral) since Wednesday, October 28th, 2026.

● These are the facts.

♤ Do understand.

Kate Moore, chief investment officer at Citi Wealth, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss big tech earnings, the midterm elections, and more.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/11/03/citi-wealths-kate-moore-on-earnings-im-still-constructive-on-tech.html

Except cvs all stocks up

https://youtu.be/M3hvIUwAL7c?si=zKMf4w4t3pEUscSz

Intel CEO Warning Sends Dell Stock Sinking

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9158651/intel-ceo-warning-sends-dell-stock-sinking

Package is good and just knowing that this horrible feeling of uncertainty will be no more! Priceless.
Job market is not great but something will click sooner or later!
Good bye and thanks for all the fish!

if you are not getting ready with your CVs to apply outside of Tech, your future family financials and careers are in risk.

Wall Street sentiment heavily suggests high volatility rather than a certain direction, as analysts forecast a steep year-over-year earnings decline. According to options market data compiled by Bloomberg, the market is pricing in an implied stock price move of roughly 8.2% immediately following the November 6, 2026 Q3 earnings release.

WTF? My stash just got cut in half.

I'm a SWE who was laid off from Fidelity in 2024. Got back on my feet towards Q4 of 2024 with a contract job somewhere else. The contract job was great, until it ended back in June due to financial constraints. The option to work both at Fidelity and this new company I worked at are there in the future. I just don't want to wait for either one to be ready, because I still need a job.

Luckily I've been getting an ok amount of interviews, like 5 interviews in the past 5 months since my last job loss. Obviously that average can be better, but this is 2026, so I'd like to temper my expectations. You might think I'm silly to say this, but I was honestly expecting more experience on my résumé (although only barely 2 years more) with in demand technologies to help me out much more more. I do have more traction that my first time being laid off, but it's been very difficult to find a job. I just got rejected from 2 interview processes this week. One being an internal pick over me, another quite literally because I couldn't talk my way through how I would utilize AI to write code for me. I leaned towards the referral route, but only 2 of the 5 past interviews I had since my last job loss came from referrals.

I'm disappointed. Not only in myself, because I know I made some errors in my preparation for these interviews, but because the job market simply doesn't allow as many opportunities as it has before. So other than mock interviews, how would I work out my muscle with interviewing? I don't want to go too hard on myself, nor give up, because I got through being laid off before in similar circumstances.

However, because of the incoming midterms, I don't know if I should expect the market to slow. I was expecting it to come to a screeching halt come holiday time, anyway. I just want to know what I should expect from companies like Fidelity or outside of Fidelity to react to midterm elections. Whether the job market will hasten or slow down.

If anyone can help me with advice on what to expect as someone who is trying to find a job during midterm, I would appreciate it. Thank you!

Any news on the divestiture of non-core BUs? Is anyone buying SaaS in this market?

Imagine having to compete with 60k former Microsoft employees?

With us making a ton of money on the float how is our stock just cratering? We were at $110 now below $90. Complete mismanagement at the top. We should be printing money with interest rates where they are. Plus the constant market movement of late should be curning portfolios which generate income as well. Anyone in the know?

Down double digits this year.

Circling above...

TDC is up 63% over the past year. Weird, I don't remember that being in any of the doom threads here. SM and SA steered right through everything this board swore would sink us, and the market just voted. I'm up over $60k in stock gains. That's what happens when you trust leadership and keep working instead of refreshing a layoff forum. Congrats to everyone who stuck around and delivered. As for the rest of you, I'm sure the next countdown thread will be the one you finally get right.

The "Big Three" U.S. carriers—AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon—have united to lobby the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to fight a new satellite-to-phone spectrum proposal primarily because they fear it will degrade their existing 5G terrestrial networks through signal interference, strip away their control over spectrum licensing, and fast-track a massive new market competitor in SpaceX's Starlink Mobile.
The FCC's proposal, scheduled for an October 29, 2026 vote, aims to open an additional 482 MHz of spectrum for Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS), expanding eligible satellite bands from 5 to 13.
The specific reasons the wireless carriers are fiercely opposing the changes through their trade group, the CTIA, include:

1. Severe 5G Network Interference

The carriers are demanding that the FCC remove the 2.5 GHz and 3.45 GHz frequencies from the proposal, which would take 290 MHz off the table.
• TDD Conflict: T-Mobile relies heavily on the 2.5 GHz band, and AT&T operates on the 3.45 GHz band. Both use Time-Division Duplexing (TDD), meaning their cell towers and consumer phones share the exact same radio bands to both send and receive data.
• Signal Degradation: The carriers argue that if a satellite flies overhead using these exact same workhorse 5G bands, it will cause severe technical and interference challenges, ultimately slowing down or disrupting service for over 300 million terrestrial wireless users.

1. Loss of Spectrum Control and Rights

Under current FCC frameworks, satellite operators are required to lease spectrum from ground carriers, giving the cellular providers full veto power and control.
• Frequency Sharing: The FCC proposal wants to replace these rigid leasing frameworks with flexible agreements that allow satellite and ground operators to share frequencies.
• The Pushback: The carriers are fighting to preserve mandatory carrier consent, termination rights, and absolute control over who uses the spectrum they invested billions of dollars to license. They contend that cellular providers—not the FCC—should dictate if a satellite company can utilize their airwaves.

1. Fending Off Starlink Mobile as a Direct Carrier Competitor

While the carriers support satellite-to-phone connectivity in theory (and have executed their own partnerships), the FCC’s sudden push directly clears the path for SpaceX to become an independent fourth major U.S. mobile carrier.
• Market Disruption: The FCC recently approved SpaceX’s acquisition of Tristar's AWS-3 spectrum and cleared 15,000 next-gen Starlink Mobile satellites capable of beaming 100x the bandwidth directly to ordinary smartphones.
• Massive Stakes: SpaceX is actively looking to build terrestrial infrastructure and secure massive blocks of spectrum to back up its satellites on the ground. Wall Street responded to the threat of a dominant, space-blended Starlink network by sending Verizon and AT&T stock tumbling. By locking down the 2.5 GHz and 3.45 GHz bands, the Big Three are trying to starve SpaceX of the massive spectrum depth it needs to fully compete with them.
Former FCC Chairman Ajit Pai, currently acting as CEO of the CTIA, has formally joined the carriers' push, meeting with current FCC Chairman Brendan Carr to urge the commission to drop the contested 5G bands from the satellite expansion draft entirely.
Would you like to know more about how SpaceX's current deal with T-Mobile differs from its new standalone carrier ambitions, or would you like details on the AT&T and Verizon partnership with AST SpaceMobile?

In the world of M&A, you typically pay 20-30% above the current value of a public company to buy it. In other words, its in our best interest to be bought by SpaceX. Due your fiscal duty and make this sh-t happen. Especially since there's no other hope of raising our stock price.

Non-bank lender MaxCap has implemented workforce reductions this week, citing a broader downturn in the private credit market. The company stated these redundancies are part of standard business management to optimize structure and resource allocation. These layoffs are occurring as the private credit industry faces increasing challenges, including liquidity issues and scrutiny from regulators. MaxCap has experienced exposure to several failed property developers, impacting its funds. This move by MaxCap is indicative of wider industry pressures affecting private credit firms.

Sydney, Australia

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/apollo-s-maxcap-cuts-staff-amid-private-credit-slump-20261023-p6180j

Verizon Stock Is Up 10% This Year. Is It Still Buy Ahead of Earnings?
As competitive threats loom, here’s what we’ll be looking for.Verizon Communications is set to release its third-quarter 2026 earnings
report on Oct. 26. Here’s Morningstar’s take on what to look for in
Verizon’s earnings and the outlook for its stock.What to Watch for in Verizon Communications’ Q3
Earnings
Continued improvement in postpaid phone customer churn and net
additions. Verizon set a goal of capturing 10%-15% of industrywide
postpaid phone net customer additions in 2026, up from a low-to-mid
single-digit percentage in recent years. The firm aims to achieve most
of this improvement through lower customer defections (churn), and it
has seen some improvement in this metric so far this year. But it still
has a long way to go to get back to industry-leading levels.

Stabilization in average revenue per customer and a continued
decline in phone upgrade rates. Verizon has cut pricing to improve
retention, but it has offset this with less generous phone upgrade
offers. We think this shift was smart, moving pricing more in line with
T-Mobile. If average revenue per customer takes another leg down,
though, our view could change.

Solid cash flow and debt reduction. Verizon has generated strong
cash flow thus far in 2026, and we expect that to continue. The firm
has started repurchasing shares rather than repaying debt, a move we
think was premature given current leverage metrics. We’d like to see
the firm shift its tone to emphasize debt reduction more explicitly,
given the potential for an expensive spectrum auction in 2027.
Verizon shares are undervalued, in our view, but we would prefer T-Mobile
among the major US wireless carriers. Verizon’s yield is nice, but we think
T-Mobile’s lower dividend payout ratio of free cash flow and stronger
balance sheet give it more flexibility amid elevated uncertainty around
SpaceX.The following are excerpts from Morningstar’s company report on Verizon
Communications.With its 4-star rating, we believe Verizon Communications’ stock is
moderately undervalued. We expect Verizon to gradually lose postpaid wireless market share to
smaller rivals T-Mobile and AT&T as the firms’ shares slowly converge.
With a rational competitive environment and stable service pricing, we
expect revenue per postpaid customer to grow modestly but steadily over
the long term.
Over the next five years, we expect average annual wireless service
revenue growth of about 2%, with acceleration to 3% in 2028 after most
customers move to new rate plans. After a bump from the Frontier
acquisition in 2026, we expect consumer fixed-line broadband revenue to
grow 13% annually through 2030 as Fios continues to attract broadband
customers and pricing power remains strong.We assign Verizon a narrow economic moat, stemming from the wireless
industry’s efficient scale characteristics. Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile
dominate the US wireless market, claiming around 90% of retail postpaid
phone customers.
The massive consolidation across the industry over the past 15 years and
the inability of several interested parties to enter the market with their
own networks provide evidence of efficient scale. We don’t believe
building a terrestrial wireless network would be a rational financial
decision for the industry’s latest threat, SpaceX, but it has very deep
pockets and could choose to push forward anyway.Verizon transformed its balance sheet when it took on more than $65
billion of incremental debt in 2014 to finance the purchase of Vodafone’s
45% stake in the Verizon Wireless joint venture. Following that transaction,
net debt leverage increased to 2.5 times EBITDA. Net debt stood at $164
billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026, putting net leverage at
about 3.2 times normalized EBITDA.
Management’s leverage targets now exclude debt secured by receivables
and a partial credit for the equity component of its junior subordinated
notes. The firm hopes to maintain unsecured leverage between 2.00 and
2.25 times EBITDA. On this basis, leverage currently stands at 2.5 times,
up from 2.3 times a year ago.
The firm has started to repurchase shares, despite leverage sitting above
the targeted range. Management expects net leverage to return to its
target by 2027, but we would prefer the firm move more quickly to repay
debt given the potential need to invest in additional wireless spectrum or
other assets.We’ve raised our Uncertainty Rating to High from Medium, as SpaceX
continues to threaten to enter the US wireless market. Verizon primarily
faces regulatory and technological uncertainties, as well as the potential
for irrational competition. SpaceX embodies all three, as it has developed
new communications technologies, successfully lobbied regulators, and
amassed the resources to compete aggressively in traditional telecom
markets if it chooses.
Regulators control wireless spectrum licensing, which creates
opportunities to influence the wireless industry. A flood of new spectrum
could drive down prices, further easing entry into the wireless business.
Wireless and broadband services are often considered necessary for
social inclusion in terms of employment and education. If Verizon’s
services are deemed insufficient or overpriced, regulators or politicians
could step in.Wireless technology continues to evolve, enabling more efficient use of
spectrum. Technology could eventually lower barriers to entry for firms
that have long wanted to enter the business, including the large cable
companies. Satellite technology could also improve to threaten both the
wireless and broadband businesses.

On our Home Lending Underwriting town hall as we go over a business update. Pretty clear signs that consumer underwriting is heavily over staffed. Cost per loan is up, utilization is down, fundings per Uw is down, and market forecasts flat to down in the next 3 years.

Tell me layoffs are coming without directly saying it

Shell and ExxonMobil are jointly exploring a sale of their 50% stakes in UK-based specialty chemicals joint venture Infineum, targeting an indicative valuation of about $8 billion, but the process is early and may not lead to a deal

What’s happening
According to the Financial Times and Reuters, Shell and ExxonMobil have appointed Bank of America to run a sale process for Infineum

The Oxfordshire‑headquartered company, founded in 1999, produces fuel and lubricant additives sold in roughly 90 countries, with products used in about one‑third of all vehicles worldwide and 70% of electric vehicles

Valuation and financials
Target valuation: ~$8 billion

Annual EBITDA: $700 million–$800 million

Implied multiple: ~10x–11.4x EBITDA

Potential proceeds: ~$4 billion gross to each parent if sold

This is a premium to BP’s $10.1 billion sale of 65% of Castrol in late 2025, which traded at ~8.6x EBITDA

Strategic context
The sale aligns with Shell’s plan to reduce its chemicals exposure by 2030 and refocus capital on oil and gas

ExxonMobil has not publicly commented on the strategy, but both owners must agree to any sale

The move comes amid industry pressures from electric vehicle adoption (reducing engine oil demand) and base oil oversupply

Status and outlook
Stage: Early, exploratory; no deal confirmed

Potential buyers: Private equity firms are expected to be among the main suitors

Market impact: Analysts expect limited immediate effect on crude oil or commodity markets, but a competitive auction could influence specialty chemicals valuations

In summary: Shell and ExxonMobil have placed Infineum on the sales block at an $8 billion target, but the process is preliminary, and a transaction is not guaranteed. The sale reflects both corporate strategy shifts and sector‑wide pressures in the lubricants and chemicals markets

All the gains from Investor day are gone.
The market doesn’t believe in the AI bubble anymore. The benefits are only minimal and the cost has been highly subsidized up to this point. Most AI providers have been losing billions of dollars.

These days investors only care about AI. Did the private equity miscalculated here and didn't count with AI when they decided to buy Nielsen and do their thing?

I don't think anybody will buy into Nielsen if they decide to IPO today, nobody will care, markets are hot enough as they are already.

What's the plan B?

Part of our problem which ultimately leads to market perception and revenue/layoffs. What the he-l are we posting stuff like this like we have anything to do with this robot. Its such a joke, we should be promoting our tech not someone else's.

https://lnkd.in/p/gDTh52HM

What’s everyone hearing. Lots of closed doors on director row today. Are the market consolidations happening this month?

I'm guessing it will go under $4.00 after the 3rd quarter earnings call. Prove me wrong KJ and Brene !! :)

https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/oil-refiner-beating-nvidia-analyst-012056671.html

There's always the chance of unforeseen obstacles, and temporary enthusiasm especially in managed care, where enthusiasm can blind investors to operational lag and policy risk.

Market reactions usually pull forward years of future expectations in a matter of days. A pull-back on Friday down to around $413 shows the initial euphoric momentum digest as the market separates long-term structural improvement from near-term execution realities.

The Three "Obstacle Zones" Humana Still Has to Navigate

1. The Multi-Year Revenue Lag (The 2026–2027 Gap)

--The Reality: The 2027 Star Ratings rebound (jumping to 95% of members in 4+ star plans) is a legitimate regulatory win. However, CMS quality bonus payments do not hit Humana’s P&L until 2028.
--The Risk: Humana must bridge late 2026 and all of 2027 on current baseline margins. If medical cost utilization spikes over the next 12 to 18 months, earnings could still face headwinds before the bonus money arrives.

1. Persistent Utilization & Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) Pressures

--The Reality: Across the senior healthcare industry, outpatient surgeries, hip/knee replacements, and expensive dr-g therapies (like GLP-1s) continue to push medical claims higher.
--The Risk: A high MLR directly eats into operational earnings. Reclaiming Star status gives Humana a massive financial safety net for 2028, but it does not magically lower the cost of caring for members in 2026.

1. Premium Valuation vs. Historical Averages

--The Reality: After pushing above $430+ (and touching $456.50), HUM’s trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio expanded well beyond its 5-year historical average (~21.5x) toward ~39x.
--The Risk: When a stock trades at a premium valuation based on future earnings expectations, it leaves zero room for operational error. Any minor earnings miss or conservative guidance update in upcoming Q3/Q4 reports can trigger quick 5%–10% profit-taking pullbacks.

How to Frame the Current Setup

While the fundamental floor of the company has undoubtedly been raised (thanks to de-risking the balance sheet via BlackRock and securing future quality bonuses):

--Short-Term (Next 3–6 Months): Expect volatility and digestion. The initial pop was "temporary enthusiasm" pricing in the news. The stock will likely chop between value-support levels ($380–$400) and resistance ($435–$450) as traders weigh high valuation against near-term medical costs.
--Long-Term (2–4 Year Horizon): The core thesis is durable. The Star Ratings recovery prevents a multi-billion dollar revenue cliff in 2028, which is why institutional price targets are sitting much higher ($475 to $590+).

The news fixed the existential tail-risk, but it didn't eliminate the day-to-day work of managing healthcare costs.

Around ten employees, including creative chief Damon Pattison, were laid off at Ricochet. This represents nearly a third of the company's workforce. The decision was reportedly made due to market conditions. A spokesperson confirmed the layoffs but offered no further comment. Ricochet is known for producing the BBC's "The Repair Shop."

Brighton, UK

https://deadline.com/2026/10/ricochet-layoffs-the-repair-shop-skydance-damon-pattison-1237157978/

A fascinating industry rumor is floating around about a massive regional consolidation. The idea is that First Citizens, Regions, Truist, PNC, and Fifth Third are looking at a combined framework to create a massive, united "Super-Regional" powerhouse.
The rationale makes a ton of sense from an infrastructure and culture standpoint:
• All five have a stable, conservative growth history with minimal scandals.
• They emphasize a hometown, relationships-first banking feel rather than cold corporate numbers.
• Combined, their balance sheets would instantly vault them into a top 3 banking spot nationwide.
The Charlotte Landscape & The "Wachovia Vacuum" 👑
What makes this theory compelling is how it could fundamentally reshape the Charlotte banking market. Ever since Wells Fargo acquired Wachovia in 2008, Charlotte has effectively function as a two-bank town split between BofA and Wells. The city has deeply missed having a local, community-focused hometown heavyweight.
A consolidated powerhouse linking Truist’s local headquarters with the expanding footprints of Fifth Third, PNC, Regions, and Raleigh-based First Citizens would create the ultimate Wachovia spiritual successor. It would introduce massive local market competition, give commercial mid-market clients a true alternative, and bridge the entire Southeast corridor under a single operational banner.
Has anyone heard internal chatter or early system ripples about these groups aligning? What do we think this means for local branch density and market stability?

Market is hitting the eject button, NKE will be wrapped up in it with several others. Who’s ready for some excitement! We went anti woke and everyone gets boned.

Nike continues to lose market share among all teenagers in footwear, while On Running continues to gain, particularly among teenage boys, according to Piper Sandler.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/piper-says-nike-continues-to-lose-teen-market-share-as-on-running-gains-93CH-4946334

AS of current price today 10/13 BNY is down $10.43 per share or 6.9% over past 3 months (7/13 to 10/13). same period of time JPM up $00.69. I don't think the negative trend is sector related.

Nike (NKE) has had a rough year so far, with shares down 46% year-to-date as it contends with a myriad of issues, including increased competition and shifting consumer tastes.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4651946-sa-asks-how-can-nike-get-back-on-track

Verizon posts worst day since 2002 as SpaceX U.S. network plans whack cell provider stocks

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/verizon-att-tmobile-stocks-spacex-network.html

Any news or update on the Columbus market locations that were most affected by the overlap with Kroger locations?

ARE LAYOFFS STILL HAPPENING ? IF SO WHAT MARKET /STATE ARE YOU IN