#economicdownturn

Rex Tillerson recently visited LT with a very pessimistic outlook of market and economic prospects. He highlighted that factors leading to a black swan are highly probable. As we all know this will be a perfect opportunity for XOM to grow inorganically and further cement its position as a market leader.
What type of event do you predict?
Last time we were given the COVID crisis this time maybe consequential…nonsense or fortuitous?

If you want to know why the company is doing what it is doing, here’s a small lesson in Private Equity and Leveraged Buyouts. Basically, a larger company finds a smaller healthy company that has employees that they are paying well and has invested a lot of money in research and development. They buy that company with debt, fire the workers, disband R&D and offload debt. They then use all the money doing that generates to pay themselves. This has been an ongoing trend the last 20 years and has ramped up in the last 10. This is in turn destroying the working class by making all these companies like zombie versions of themselves.

In the 1970’s when THEY DEREGULATED THE STOCK MARKET AND THE FINANCE INDUSTRY, PRODUCTIVITY DIVERGED FROM WAGES. If we were to bring back the New Deal Reforms from the 50s/60s, we would close the gap of productivity & wages, and it would make normal people wealthier as opposed to bankers and financiers.

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2026/06/26/midyear-economic-outlook-layoffs.html

Replacing Visa and MC with a local alternative could hurt us majorly. And we all know it's not those on top who'll pay the price, but the rest of us. I've been so nervous about this since the news first came out.

S&P Global reported on US manufacturing layoffs. Layoffs in June reached levels not seen since 2009. This excludes the initial COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. Concerns over global demand and rising costs drove these job cuts. Manufacturing PMI growth was mainly due to inventory replenishment.

https://www.bitget.com/amp/news/detail/12560605474712

Lucid Motors recently declared additional job reductions. The company is decreasing its total employee count by 18 percent. This affects 705 individuals at their Casa Grande, Arizona plant. The local community now faces increased economic uncertainty. These are the second staff cuts implemented by Lucid this year.

Casa Grande, AZ

https://www.azfamily.com/2026/06/24/still-shock-casa-grande-feels-impact-after-lucid-motors-layoffs/

3 weeks ago they warned of $140+ oil. Now we sit at $70.

SmartAsset, a financial technology company, released a new report. The report identified America's newest boomtowns nationwide. SmartAsset assessed over 400 cities based on economic output, housing, and labor force growth. Four California cities were ranked among these rapidly growing areas. Menifee, Rancho Cordova, Santa Clara, and Sunnyvale made the list.

https://www.aol.com/articles/four-california-cities-among-americas-180001216.html

Initial unemployment claims in the US fell. This signals that layoffs remain low despite economic uncertainty. Employers continue retaining workers due to skilled labor shortages. The Federal Reserve monitors this employment data. Consistent employment aids consumer spending and economic growth.

Washington, D.C., United States

https://brusselsmorning.com/us-weekly-jobless-claims/99520/

Dow is implementing global job reductions as part of its Transform to Overperform plan. These layoffs are now affecting employees in Midland, Michigan. Dow plans to reduce 4,500 global positions throughout 2026. The company has not disclosed specific numbers for Midland. The community feels uneasy about the potential local economic impact.

Midland, Michigan

https://www.wcmu.org/local-regional-news/2026-06-19/midland-braces-for-dows-latest-round-of-layoffs

https://fathomjournal.org/6f4be010/11abdcfdLCZEHh8cGhUZAQk

Predict what’s about to occur now that a low price environment and halfhearted improvement initiatives are about to collide.
Will the market reward or punish current leadership?

Im sorry to say, this place is beyond cooked....and its not just BD, its the whole world.

Balance no longer exists. What remains is a world defined by imbalance so constant that it has become indistinguishable from normalcy. Excess and deficiency exist side by side, not in tension but in resignation, as though correction is no longer expected.

Across the public sphere, intelligent and coherent thought has grown less common, not because the capacity has disappeared, but because the conditions that sustain it have eroded. Attention is fragmented, discourse is accelerated beyond reflection, and communication is increasingly shaped by urgency rather than understanding. Conversations that once demanded depth are now compressed into immediacy, and in that compression, nuance is lost. The result is not silence, but noise without clarity.

At the same time, the natural systems that underpin life are under sustained stress. The ground, the water, the air, and the food supply carry the cumulative weight of industrial and chemical expansion, often in ways that are not immediately visible. These changes do not announce themselves dramatically. They accumulate quietly, persistently, until their consequences become unavoidable. What once could be assumed as stable now exists under conditions that are uncertain and increasingly difficult to restore.

Economic structures mirror this imbalance. Wealth and opportunity continue to concentrate, while access to stability becomes less predictable for much of the population. The idea that effort alone ensures security has weakened. Systems that suggest fairness in principle often fail to deliver it in experience. As disparity widens, so does the distance between those who can insulate themselves from instability and those who cannot.

Institutions that were meant to provide coherence reflect this fragmentation. Education struggles to reconcile its purpose with shifting demands. Governance often reacts rather than directs. Information systems prioritize engagement, leaving accuracy as a secondary concern. These structures continue to function, but their ability to produce alignment or trust has diminished.

On an individual level, the effects are less dramatic but no less significant. People remain connected through constant technological access, yet the sense of being understood does not scale with that connection. Productivity continues to increase, but fulfillment does not follow proportionally. Options expand, while direction becomes less certain. Activity grows, while meaning becomes harder to define.

None of these elements exist in isolation. Each reinforces the others. A decline in thoughtful discourse makes it more difficult to address complex problems. Environmental strain contributes to economic pressure. Inequality intensifies social fragmentation. The systems designed to manage these forces operate within the same conditions that weaken them.

This is not a moment defined by a single collapse, but by the gradual normalization of imbalance across every domain. It is a state in which strain is continuous, correction is delayed, and the expectation of equilibrium has quietly receded.

U.S. applications for jobless aid decreased last week. Filings dropped by 4,000 to 226,000. This indicates layoffs remain historically low across the country. The U.S. economy added 172,000 new jobs in May. The unemployment rate currently stands at 4.3%.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/business/2026/06/18/us-filings-for-unemployment-benefits-fall-to-226000-last-week-as-layoffs-remain-historically-low/

https://www.indexbox.io/blog/bankruptcies-and-layoffs-hit-transportation-and-logistics-sector-in-june-2026/

• 6%

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/government-politics/article_d310ec88-4d1c-48b9-a124-e027b4de6d0f.html

Michigan's economy continues to expand, but job growth is slowing. A West Michigan survey revealed the employment index turned negative in May. This indicates employers are becoming more cautious about hiring. Statewide forecasts predict slower economic growth and a softer labor market. Consumer confidence and spending are critical factors for the future outlook.

https://mitechnews.com/news/michigan-economy-still-growing-but-new-signs-point-to-a-slower-job-market/

I've heard the rest of the year will be bad when it comes to layoffs. We won't see a slowdown but the opposite. Can someone tell me I'm wrong? Please?

Who knows. People are anxious. At least people around me. I am more concerned about 2027 and what happens if the economy tanks due to sh-t that's happening all over the world.

BSA Health System and Bell Helicopter confirmed recent layoffs. Approximately 29 BSA staff members were affected in Amarillo. Bell Helicopter laid off about 30 employees in Amarillo. Rising costs and market realities were cited as reasons. Some Bell employees also face three-week furloughs.

Amarillo, Texas

https://amarillotribune.org/2026/06/10/approximately-60-affected-by-layoffs-at-top-amarillo-employers/

https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/jobs/2026/06/09/arizona-layoffs-eased-in-may-labor-market-still-mixed/90462646007/

A new Mercer study reveals 99% of surveyed CEOs anticipate AI-related job reductions. These cuts are expected within the next two years. Entry-level workers face the highest risk of displacement. Some companies like Meta and Amazon have already cited AI for recent layoffs. However, consumer AI usage remains low, and some firms find AI implementation costly.

https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/99-ceos-planning-ai-layoffs-173000476.html

Bay Area tech companies continue to announce significant layoffs. Oracle, Meta, and LinkedIn are among those reducing their workforces. Despite these job cuts, recession fears remain low in the region. The current pace of layoffs is slower compared to 2022. Many laid-off tech workers quickly secure new employment opportunities.

https://www.capradio.org/articles/2026/06/08/why-bay-area-tech-layoffs-arent-raising-recession-fears-yet/

Reporter Jessica Holdman discussed South Carolina business news. A new magnet factory is planned for the Upstate region. However, some layoffs are also expected in the Upstate this summer. New tax breaks will benefit companies converting landfill methane to energy. Additionally, new taxes will be imposed on vape products.

Columbia, South Carolina

https://www.southcarolinapublicradio.org/show/south-carolina-business-review/2026-06-08/new-jobs-new-tax-laws-and-layoffs-happening-in-sc?_amp=true

why is our stock down? I must feed muh family.

https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/wl5hu04k6ut6/

Dont by the BS... There’s a tiny bit of truth to it, though "tiny bit" is doing a lot of work... It gives companies as well as Amdocs a shareholderfriendly reason to cut headcount - it sounds strategic, smart, rather than alarming.

Why trim... Gestures broadly at everything... Economic uncertainty, geopolitical sh-tshow, weak consumer and customer sentiment. Also... volatile markets, copycat costcutting... the growing sense that when things eventually break (whenever that is??) companies would rather have a larger cash cushion than a smaller one (or none at all.)

A new Insuranceopedia analysis details the rising financial impact of tech layoffs. In 2026, losing a tech job costs workers an estimated $14,400 per month. This figure includes approximately $13,750 in salary and $625 for private health insurance. The monthly financial blow is 36% higher than in 2021 and 56% higher than a decade ago. Tech companies have already cut nearly 115,000 jobs this year, accelerating the industry's layoff crisis.

https://americanbazaaronline.com/2026/05/28/losing-a-tech-job-in-2026-now-costs-workers-nearly-14400-month-481700/

2026 89,900 -9.74%
2025 99,600 -5.50%
2024 105,400 -9.99%
2023 117,100 -1.10%
2022 118,400 -10.44%
2021 132,200 -2.07%
2020 135,000 -6.57%
2019 144,500 -7.01%
2018 155,400 -3.42%
2017 160,900 -9.45%

Over 7,350 layoffs have been announced across New Jersey for 2026. These job cuts are detailed in WARN notices filed with the state. Major sectors like retail, healthcare, finance, and logistics are affected. Companies such as Amazon, Blue Cross Blue Shield, and Bristol Myers Squibb are reducing staff. This wave of layoffs raises concerns about the state's economic stability.

New Jersey

https://www.shorenewsnetwork.com/has-new-jerseys-economic-bubble-burst-more-than-7300-layoffs-announced-at-major-companies/

and $$$ has to come from somewhere. things are bad right now.

We've been weighed down by margin pressure quite a bit. General population will continue to be VERY cautious given all the sh-t that's going on in the country and inte world. Plus this case of a lingering fallout from the botched Albertsons merger - it's a messed up mix of bad things. Now, I wander, how much suffering will be directed towards the employee. I hope for the better, but i am increasingly losing that hope.

I know this is a franchiser, but I think it's only a matter of time before we start feeling the heat as well. I'm already noticing a drop in foot traffic at my location. It's nothing drastic, but if the economy continues its downward spiral and tariffs continue to beat us up, we might be looking at layoffs as well.

The Rhode Island labor market has effectively stalled. This data comes from the DLT. A dual phenomenon persists in the state. Job growth has stalled. The workforce is diminishing.

https://www.bizjournals.com/rhodeisland/news/2026/05/21/ri-labor-market-stalled.html

I know the obvious answer is because of who the POTUS is. But how does the market continue to rise despite unemployment likely to hit 30-40 percent by Q1 2027

Connecticut companies announced over 2,200 layoffs in 2026. Macy's led with 993 job cuts from its Cheshire fulfillment center closure. CVS Health's Aetna unit and Talcott Resolution Life also reduced staff in Hartford. Stanley Black & Decker, IDEX Health & Science, and Guida-Seibert Dairy closed facilities. These job reductions affected various sectors across the state, totaling 2,255 positions.

https://patch.com/connecticut/across-ct/more-2-200-company-layoffs-announced-ct-2026-economic-woes-continue-bite

OpenAI failing is a mathematical certainty, what happens to Oracle as a result?

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/J2M15bD2o4g