Due to principles in Semiconductor manufacturing and moores law, GFs products will enter the low cost semiconductor market within 36 months.
SiPho isn’t capturing as much market demand as previous anticipated, and GaN is somewhat niche. Larger scale (7+nM) technologies will become cheap, consumer scale electronics that mostly any foundry in the world will be able to successfully manufacture. GF will scrape along for some time, missing Quarterly targets here, laying off staff there, cutting cost all the way as they try to keep investors and BoD happy. When NYS incentives run out, GF will consider being acquired by other manufacturers. My bet would be TSMC as they continue US expansion, with some potential for Intel as well. Only hurdle is US administration woes, however, GF is not an American company. This is furthermore complicated by massive deficits in skilled labor, prevalence of AI, and opportunities for robotic automation that will present themselves over the next 36 months.
Any employees considering this as FUD, ask yourself, where do you see GF in 5 years? Are things feeling concrete? Or do you feel some ripples in the water.
Costs of production are going up, which always results in profits going down, especially when producing antiquated tech.