#supplychain

The global energy system has entered a prolonged period of disruption following the Iran war, with no quick path back to normal conditions.

Damage to infrastructure, shuttered wells, and tangled supply chains have created lasting shortages of oil and natural gas. Even if the conflict were resolved immediately, the loss of production capacity and logistical breakdowns mean elevated energy prices are likely to persist for years rather than months.

Several top energy executives have voiced concern about the severity of the situation:

• Mike Wirth has warned that oil markets are not fully accounting for the real physical disruptions already underway, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Vicki Hollub has emphasized efforts to reduce exposure to geopolitical risk, reflecting broader industry caution.
• Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah has highlighted that even when conditions stabilize, restarting production will take months due to shut-in wells.
  Their comments collectively underscore that the challenges are structural, not temporary.

The effects are spreading unevenly across the world, beginning in Asia where countries are already cutting energy use through emergency measures, and gradually moving toward Europe and beyond. A significant share of global oil and gas supply has been taken offline, forcing governments and industries to adapt through rationing, higher costs, and reduced activity. Unlike previous crises, this disruption involves physical damage to key facilities, making recovery slower and more complex while also contributing to rising inflation in major economies.

Industry leaders warn that markets may be underestimating how severe and long-lasting the situation could become, especially with critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz affected. While energy companies are currently benefiting from high prices, the underlying instability is unsustainable. Attention is shifting toward faster-to-deploy sources like U.S. shale, but emergency reserves are being depleted quickly, suggesting a future defined by tighter supply, structurally higher prices, and ongoing uncertainty in global energy markets.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-shock-chevron-energy-stocks-4f65c8b1

Per latest IDC forecast, the global smartphone market is expected to decline by 13% this year—roughly a drop of 160 million units—driven in part by memory shortages and supply constraints.

Recovery isn’t anticipated until mid-2027, and even then, not to prior peak levels. This report predates the current geopolitical tensions I guess, so a prolonged conflict could lead to an even sharper downturn.

So, overall we're all cooked nicely folks!!

Nearly 4,000 workers across various US supply chains have been affected by recent layoffs. These job cuts span EV battery plants, auto parts factories, warehouses, and rail terminals. SK Battery America laid off 958 workers at its Georgia EV battery plant due to shifting demand. Bankrupt First Brands Group cut 905 jobs across facilities in Texas and Tennessee. Campbell's will eliminate 205 jobs in Texas as it retools a plant for sauce production. Several logistics and distribution operators also announced significant workforce reductions.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/supply-chain-layoffs-spread-across-warehouses-factories-and-rail-terminals

The only benefit is if we move we will finally be able to afford a house. Let’s be honest allot of us at corporate are renting and cannot afford Seattle. We have a choice either move or get laid off.

“According to The Wall Street Journal, the roles moving to Nashville will include direct and indirect sourcing teams, with the company expecting to move additional jobs to Tennessee down the line.”

I am going to move if I get the offer. What about everyone else?

With Anthropic being labeled a supply chain risk by the US government and government contractors like Palantir having to cut ties with Anthropic or lose business with US agencies, how does this affect our AI systems? Does AIG stand behind Anthropic's decision or do they support the US government's decision?

The west coast refineries run a lot of Middle East crude slates, their on hand stocks are probably good for a week or so depending on where they on the resupply cycle. Assume there is some business continuity plan for supply disruptions.

I know most of this is happening company wide but something extra seems to be happening in these groups due the brashness and severity of the morale crushing decisions.

1. Revolving leadership door. CPO was demoted, Head of Sourcing left for another bank and I personally have had 4 bosses over the past 3 years. Constant cycle of having to "re-tell the story" for the new execs that come and go.

2. The approved location strategy hubs have already changed once, with multiple locations being REMOVED from the list. STL, Delaware are no longer approved . No "real" reason was given other than the needs of the business.

3. Forced and inaccurate IM performance ratings are commonplace/standard practice and this is widely known by the entire group including ICs. Most of us hate the idea of destroying someone's career path, merit raise, and bonus trajectory just to hit a quota but our CAO seems to gravitate towards things that really create pain and anxiety for the folks keeping the lights on.

4. November town hall segment was dedicated to favorite thanksgiving day deserts, just 1 or 2 days after several hundred STL and Delaware employees were told that they are no longer in a hub and that they're going to be displaced by early 2027 and possibly late 2026. Good times! They could either spare us the sweets talk or move the meeting out a week or two until folks have recovered from the terrible news.

A portion of the January TH was dedicated to our CAO's love of travel. It was great to hear about their plans for trips to Morocco Japan and god knows where else. Very valuable information. huge morale booster too! maybe if we all work harder the CAO can take even MORE trips in 2027!

Soooo much toxicity. Intentional empathy void. I am worried about what's coming next, any guesses??? I have begun my search despite how tough it is out there.

If you're at the gates (to H3ll) looking in, you may want to keep movin'. this place will not treat you fairly.

Confirmed in the supply chain town hall today.

The room was quite sparse and "questions" were clearly staged.

Walmart mgrs in meetings down here in Texas , was told by Keebler rep ,they had a call and was discussed on call ,nabisco is leaving dsd in Walmart only in 6to 8 weeks!

Can anyone share which supply chain roles are being eliminated? Are roles in FCs being affected too?

Is it just Xerox being cheap…. We’re not in a COVID situation so what’s the excuse?

Macy's Leads Thousands of Supply Chain Job Cuts
The freight market continues to struggle in early 2026. Over 3,100 job cuts have been announced since mid-January across various sectors. Macy's is closing its Owasso, Oklahoma, fulfillment center, affecting 993 employees. Alton Steel and Continental Tire also announced significant layoffs. Weak consumer demand and excess capacity contribute to these widespread reductions.

https://www.freightwaves.com/?p=570118

The freight market continues to struggle in early 2026. Over 3,100 job cuts have been announced since mid-January across various sectors. Macy's is closing its Owasso, Oklahoma, fulfillment center, affecting 993 employees. Alton Steel and Continental Tire also announced significant layoffs. Weak consumer demand and excess capacity contribute to these widespread reductions.

https://www.freightwaves.com/?p=570118

I can’t wait to hear Farley’s voice reading from the script. From the DN:

Ford aluminum supplier not back at full output after September fire

Detroit — Production of aluminum at Ford Motor Co. supplier Novelis still has not fully resumed more than four months after a devastating fire disrupted supply of the metal to Ford's lucrative pickup trucks, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Following a massive blaze in September at the New York facility, Ford cut its 2025 profit guidance and said it would lose the output of up to 100,000 F-Series pickup trucks through the end of 2025. The company estimated the cost would be up to $2 billion, and it planned to mitigate about half of that. Novelis said it expected to resume full production by the end of December.

An additional fire in late November upset that timeline. Ford at the time said the November fire did not change its projections for its 2025 core profit. It is now unclear how the prolonged shutdown at the facility's hot mill might affect Ford's results for the fourth quarter or the first quarter.

A Ford spokesperson said the company would provide an update when it reports fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 10. A Novelis spokesperson pointed to the company's November statement, in which it said it "will continue to leverage alternate sources, including its global network of plants and industry peers, to mitigate impact."

The automaker is buying aluminum from other Novelis facilities, Ford executives have said.

Ford's F-Series line, which includes the F-150 and larger Super Duty truck, is by far the company's top seller and generates the bulk of its global profit, analysts estimate. While Novelis also supplies other automakers, Ford is a major customer because its trucks use a largely aluminum body.

The automaker said last year it would increase production of its F-150 and Super Duty trucks by more than 50,000 vehicles at plants in Dearborn and Louisville, Kentucky, in 2026 to recoup some of the lost production from the Novelis fire. It has axed production of the F-150 Lightning electric truck, which also used aluminum from the supplier, as part of a $19.5 billion write-down on its EV programs.

Novelis said the projected costs of rebuilding damaged plant areas and equipment would total $255 million, in an application for financial assistance from Oswego County, New York.

Among current and previous employees. Current workforce mostly has quietly quit and Dell is going to be squeezed by current suppliers in 2026, deaths by a thousand paper cuts.

Nike Plans 775 Job Cuts in Mid-South Distribution Centers

https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/money/business/2026/01/27/nike-layoffs-memphis-tennessee-mississippi/88376939007/

Nike Cuts 775 US Jobs in 2026

https://www.fastcompany.com/91481694/nike-layoffs-2026-hundreds-of-job-cuts-shoe-giant-cites-supply-chain-automation

Nike will lay off 775 employees in the United States. These job cuts are scheduled to begin in 2026. The affected positions are primarily at distribution centers in Mississippi and Tennessee. This marks the third consecutive year Nike has reduced its workforce. The company aims to strengthen operations and streamline its supply chain.

Nike Cuts 775 US Warehouse Jobs

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/nike-cut-775-jobs-us-distribution-centers-cnbc-reports-2026-01-26/

Nike to Lay Off 775 Employees in Two States

Nike expects to lay off approximately 775 employees. These job cuts will impact operations in Tennessee and Mississippi. The company is streamlining its supply chain footprint. The plan includes consolidating distribution centers and using new technology. Nike aims to reduce complexity and achieve long-term profitable growth.

https://www.localmemphis.com/article/news/local/nike-expects-to-layoff-more-than-700-employees-in-tennessee-and-mississippi/522-c7e1188d-7fb6-4616-8e57-f60a678eb74a

Memphis, Tennessee

Nike Lays Off 775 Staff in Automation Push

https://www.sneakerfreaker.com/news/nike-755-job-cuts-elliott-hill-explained

SC re-org starts today. Post what you know below!

With Trump threatening retalitory tariffs up to an additional 25% on every country that doesn't support his seizure of Greenland. Germany & other EU countries are massive suppliers for a plethora of chemicals for semi manufacturing. How are we going to be able to afford yet another set of increases?

A source inside Boeing told KING 5 the company held a mandatory call Friday morning, during which employees were told Boeing plans to cut about 10% of jobs in Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS) Supply Chain.

https://www.king5.com/article/tech/science/aerospace/source-boeing-layoffs-defense-supply-chain-work-group/281-415aa055-b8c0-48df-86e6-0a066775a6e6

I’m at a loss. Don’t even know what to say.

U.S. logistics, manufacturing and supply-chain firms have started 2026 with a surge of layoffs, facility closures and bankruptcy filings, affecting more than 2,200 workers nationwide.

State notices and court records show job cuts spanning rail support services, parcel networks, food manufacturing, packaging, last-mile delivery and e-commerce, as companies grapple with lost contracts, high costs, excess capacity and tighter credit conditions.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/layoffs-bankruptcies-batter-u-s-logistics-and-manufacturing-at-start-of-2026

• Over 4,200 jobs are being cut nationwide across manufacturing, logistics, and transportation sectors, continuing a trend of industrial employment strain into 2026.
• The layoffs impact diverse areas such as EV supply chains (e.g., Ford's 1,600 job cut at a battery plant pivoting away from EV production), food processing, trailer manufacturing, and warehousing.
• These job losses are driven by structural shifts, including recalibrated EV demand, automation pullbacks, and prolonged market weakness, putting pressure on labor-intensive operations in the freight industry.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/from-factories-to-fulfillment-centers-more-layoffs-hit-u-s-supply-chains

Due to not pating our vendors many shipments are not coming in. I wonder how long this will last.

Any cuts in away from home commercial org?

Or is that pending the GTM and supply chain stuff mentioned in the new release? If so that will happen end of next year?

What has anyone heard about supply chain field for layoffs? My site director said they are looking at getting rid of operations directors positions. There also seems to be too many operations managers positions.

Franco seems to think Nick Jonas is going to save us! To move fashion watches again we need three things: Fossil must lead in innovation, clearly prove value (quality + price), and consistently deliver. Right now it’s a train-wreck with poor leadership, no positioning, and zero value.

The consultants (notably Laks) obviously lack watch/jewelry and supply-chain experience and have replaced a once rock-solid unique supplier base with inferior vendors, creating an operational disaster. Bottom line is that without a rapid and decisive reset, we’re sinking!

what is apple going to do when Qorvo goes away.

https://www.cbtnews.com/ford-maintains-2025-profit-outlook-after-second-novelis-fire/

Ford needs to learn from Tesla manufacturing systems. Not to rely on suppliers for critical parts and components.

Anyone affected in GSC?

Anyone in supply chain affected?

That’s what I understood, but I just want to be sure. You’ll have to forgive my skepticism and distrust.

Thoughts on the affect on inventory analysts?

Just curious

The day before I left Target, leaders were discussing if they should “update” the slides for her (the company needs a real supply chain officer that understands basic supply chain concepts)
Nice should not be the primary qualification. Just like her, Rob has also only worked at Walmart, but he is the real deal.

This may sound crazy but is there a thing of the Manager/s deliberately having shipment delayed for certain departments ?

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/ups-may-begin-disposing-imported-packages-over-customs-issues.amp

Of course Mondelez isn’t leaving dsd! Can you imagine how bad their numbers would look if all at once, all customer business teams could no longer force in 100 cases of Oreo for an end cap display that will never exist! Even when the store already has 100 cases of Oreo in back stock from the last display that never happened!
They are committed to DSD, they are stuck! Stock numbers would plummet so fast and they already aren’t looking good.

There is no reason to have so many layers of management in the US for the supply chain group and I'm sure the same applies to other groups like polaris, gbs, emtec.
A prime example of bloat is the COE group in materials management full of people who aren't experts of anything but are the ones making over complex processes that fail and promoting made up savings figures to justify their jobs in houston. Why close our offices in sg and in canada when we have this bloat in likely every organization within XOM. Shame on SG and the VPs with their lies when EMSC was introduced.

It’s really amazing that we’re going to create another org filled with external executives that are not from telecom. She signed a lot of bad deals in supply chain.