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Fannie dropped minimum FICO… Pulte is a fool. He is cruel, but he is a fool. We have had cruel kings, and we have had weak kings…

paraphrasing Tywin Lannister, Pulte (Joffrey) is a fool. He is cruel, but he is a fool.
We have had cruel kings, and we have had weak kings, and we have had mad kings… but I do not know if we have ever been cursed with a king who was all three.


IBM’s debt bubble

Is Alvind purposely trying to pork up the balance sheet so much , he wants more obligations ?

I was told the company needs to be leaner and they need to bring down costs but what the he11 are these acquisitions for ?

Just good press? Bragging rights ?

Make it make sense


Revaluation of the Vernova Stock price

Want to know what bold financial bets underpin this target? The narrative hinges on a game-changing revenue outlook and projected margin jumps over the next few years. See what specific assumptions drive the calculation and why consensus thinks a rerating might be ahead.

However, persistent losses in the Wind division and heavier exposure to volatile, large-scale projects could quickly reverse optimism around GE Vernova’s margin outlook.

Not looking Good Enough anymore is it?


Finance

FInance undergoing major upheaval targeting 25 % and being achieved via force rankings to avoid severance payments. How is this legal? Nevermind unethical but Dermie doesn't really care.

People are getting fed up and just leaving too. Shame on the managers that don't have a backbone and push back. Note to managers, you are next to go, Karma is a bi--h.


Open letter to SteveB — Questions that NO ONE asks you but need to be answered

SteveB,

You just reported Q3’25 results.

Let’s strip out the “reinvention” slogans and talk GAAP facts.

Because GAAP is the real score: it shows what a company truly earns and spends, with no special adjustments or “creative” add-backs.

Here are the questions employees and investors deserve answers to:

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Q3 GAAP gross margin was 22.7%, not the ~29% “adjusted” number repeated on calls.

When will Xerox return to even 25% GAAP gross margin?

If not in 2026, what is the plan?

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GAAP operating results remain NEGATIVE before interest expense in pro-forma terms.

How do you claim “positive operating momentum” when GAAP still shows operating LOSSES?

⸻

Xerox already took a ~$1B goodwill impairment in Q3’24.

Analysts expect another ~$1B in Q4’25.

After ~$2B in goodwill impairment in two years, how can you claim the strategy has created value?

⸻

Quarterly interest expense: ~$70M

Annual interest burden: ~$280M

How does Xerox service this debt load when GAAP operating income is NEGATIVE?

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2025 Free Cash Flow (FCF) guidance cut to $150M, while cash generation relies heavily on receivables liquidation (~$400M).

Once receivables are gone, what funds operations?

When does Xerox produce true operating cash, not working-capital pull-forward?

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Cash at Q3’25: ~$535M

Expected Q4 hit from impairment, restructuring, interest: > $1B

How many quarters of runway remain before EXTERNAL CAPITAL becomes MANDATORY?

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Headline revenue +28% was entirely acquisition-driven.

Pro-forma organic revenue: -8%.

When does Xerox deliver organic growth — without buying it?

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Legacy print equipment installs declined 24%; core print post-sale revenue -5%.

At what point do you acknowledge the print decline is STRUCTURAL, not “delayed demand”?

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Synergies raised to >$300M, but integration costs are front-loaded and recurring.

What percent of announced synergies have actually hit GAAP results?

Not adjusted — GAAP. Give the number.

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Moving SMB accounts to partners, closing direct touchpoints, offshoring operations.

Is this a transformation — or a cost-collapse to survive declining print economics?

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Xerox booked a valuation allowance against deferred tax assets.

If the future is so bright, why does your own accounting tell us future taxable profits are uncertain?

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1200+ roles eliminated.

Yet no GAAP earnings improvement.

How many more jobs must be cut before the financials turn? Or is cost-cutting the strategy?

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Final Question:

When will Xerox return to GAAP profitability and positive GAAP operating cash flow without working-capital burn?

Provide a quarter and a number.

No slogans. No AI buzzwords. No “Reinvention” language.

Just GAAP math, dates, and accountability.

Employees, customers, and investors deserve nothing less.


Will Goodwill turn to negative equity in Q4

https://investors.xerox.com/news-releases/news-release-details/xerox-releases-third-quarter-results-1

It's a question, not a statement.

We know they skipped the Goodwill testing and put it off until Q4. We also know they are required to do it once a year, and they absolutely have to in Q4.

If I'm reading this thing right, the Goodwill far exceeds the Total Equity. I know a lot of the one time losses will be gone on the Q4 call, but still, the EV could go to 0 or negative.


Where’s the cash?

For everyone getting all bricked up about billion dollar investment announcements - just ask yourself some simple questions - where is the money? Do you see it anywhere on our books? Where is the new customer demanding any kind of capacity add?

I can tell you all day that I’m PLANNING to buy a lambo in the future - but you shouldn’t get too excited until you see it in my driveway.

It’s Q4 and it’s bleak - don’t believe the hype.


Warning Sign for US Citizens

The collapse of Fiserv should be a warning sign for every US citizen. The executive branch of the US Government is operating in the same way as Fiserv...even some of the same players are involved. The outcome will be the same. Find a safe haven for your assets and buckle in because this will be a wild ride!


FP&A

For FP&A, do teams experience layoffs if their business partners are experiencing layoffs, or is it across the board? Any one who was here during 2015 have some intel?


The (7) Major Debt bubble(s) and the (ongoing) disconnect between the U.S. economy, and Wall Street; but (ultimately) that changes.

AI spending -

Is driving the stock market (for now) but be aware.

The (7) Major Debt bubbles.

U.S. economic-financial system.

Debt bubbles (ultimately) lead to crashes (especially in the stock market).

Total household debt - $18.4 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 2nd quarter (a record).

It has been proven time-and-time again in U.S. history.

All of these are at (record) levels.

List of (current) U.S. debt bubbles -

U.S. National debt - $37.9 Trillion, and (rising) exponentially per usdebtclock (add another $3.74 Trillion (minimum) from the Trump Tax bill). Financed by outside Investors (a record).

U.S. mortgage debt - $12.94 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 2nd quarter (a record).

U.S. credit card debt - $1.33 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 3rd quarter (a record).

U.S. automotive debt - $1.66 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 3rd quarter (a record).

U.S. student loan debt - $1.81 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 3rd quarter (a record).

There is also (record) debt ($1.13 Trillion, September 2025 per FINRA) in the stock market by Investors financing purchases.

The U.S. Government shutdown (still ongoing) proves the U.S. National debt part (even more).

These are the facts.


Humana Stock

For those of you that own stock in Humana, are you pleased with this year’s stock’s position? What are your feelings about 2026, in regards to Humana’s stock’s position?


Dividend @ Risk?

JPMorgan analyst Sebastiano Petti:

"We anticipate that Schulman will pursue an assertive strategy to accelerate Verizon's fiber footprint growth, with a heightened focus on convergence to lower churn and enhance consumer segment volumes and share. However, increased capital expenditures to support footprint expansion are likely to pressure free cash flow and impede the company's de-leveraging trajectory. As a result, we would not be surprised if Verizon suspends dividend growth to prioritize investment in growth initiatives and/or discretionary share buybacks."

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/att-stock-verizon-stock-dividend-tmobile-stock-new-ceo/?src=A00220


In debit and not profittable

Not sure how these folks plan to survive. Most of their field personnel are financing the company because they don't pay their expenses on time. The hard part of working here is when they tell to find another vendor because they haven't paid the other 3 yet and the vendors won't do work for us any longer. I've never seen a business function the way this one does, and I don't think it will keep this pace long!


Are we paying attention to FRED -REPO Ops Market? why are banks frantically sell off Treasury bonds and Mortgages?

Are we paying attention to FRED - why are banks frantically sell off Treasury bonds and Mortgages?

Banks are saying they have a capital and liquidity issue. They are selling off all their bonds (like taking your gold and diamonds to a pawn shop) and mortgage securities (like taking your clothes, food, and furniture).

USAA (and navy fed) is in a worst case scenario as most of our deposits come DoD / Government pay (or social security) food stamps no longer being paid out, etc.

2021: zero banks went to repo market to sell or "pawn" assets
2022: zero banks went to repo market to sell or "pawn"assets
2023:zero banks went to repo market to sell or "pawn"assets
2024:zero banks went to repo market to sell or "pawn"assets
2025:zero banks went to repo market to sell or "pawn"assets
2025: Sept $6.5B in treasury and $1.5B in Mortgage Backed)
October: $6.6B in treasury and $8.6B in Mortgage Backed)

Also, look at the dates - its right before pay day. USAA was expecting $7B in direct deposits on the 30th and 15th. In Sept we utilized the remaining liquidity we had and went to repo market. In oct looks like we sold a LOT and are paycheck to paycheck.

Layoffs will be the least of our problems - hint, change your direct deposit to your alternate bank. Another hint, yea someone will most likely bail us out - but with their company.

(this topic is much deeper and more complex) this is just the high points with a few facts.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/repo