#economicdownturn

Anyone drinking the Kool-Aid still? Read this: https://simplywall.st/community/narratives/us/diversified-financials/nasdaq-fisv/fiserv/puwknbpq-tech-giants-blockchain-and-fee-pressures-will-erode-profitability-e9qo/updates/3-3-analysts-have-slashed-our-fiserv-fair-value-estimate-from-ab?utm_source=Braze&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CommunityDigest

They say inflation is going down since 2023 but I still see everything breaking the bank including basics like groceries to homes. Stock market is predicting a recession next year by end of year. Taking careful financial steps and planning next year is the key to survive.

What are the chances of the company going under in the next 2 years ? Or will it survive and turn itself around

7.8 million people out of work.

Per CNN article.

Let that sink in.

The loss of 200 jobs at the Packing Corporation of America is a significant blow for Walla Walla County, where many PCA workers reside.

https://www.union-bulletin.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-pca-layoffs-demand-a-look-at-economic-policies/article_db185e72-95b9-46cb-86a8-f4979d4fceaa.html

there are layoffs every year usually before end of q1 and early q4 before the US holidays. q1 layoffs are always to tighten budgets after year end numbers and jan month end numbers. this year obviously layoffs are much more than just that but expect additional tightening before end of march next year

Bumping this for info from @rp+1kbwqk6k3.

Stagflation -

High Inflation - Low Growth.

Is the greatest threat to the U.S. economy (by far).

The Fed lowering Interest rates in the Trump tariff environment will (not) help the labor market (at all).

The Fed should have at least held Interest rates steady this month.

Layoffs continue to Increase, and will ramp up (even more) during 2026 with the (Very strong possibility) of a Major recession; enroute.

Stagflation -

High Inflation - Low Growth.

Is the greatest threat to the U.S. economy (by far).

The Fed lowering Interest rates in the Trump tariff environment will (not) help the labor market (at all).

The Fed should have at least held Interest rates steady this month.

Layoffs continue to Increase, and will ramp up (even more) during 2026 with the (Very strong possibility) of a Major recession; enroute.

Any word on cuts in the new year in 2026? Some job functions are starting to integrate AI to reduce headcount. Repetitive functions are being streamlined by AI. This is occurring from roles from accounts receivable, payable, payroll, service desk analyst, desktop analyst and more.

Some say because CNRL has a history of not cutting it won’t occur in one shot. Rather they will initially try to focus cuts on attrition (not hiring for those who retire, quit or go on disability leave). CNRL has been historically slow to take any strategy moves. With the changing economy and tariffs we will have no choice to pivot. Other industries have seen and continue to see job cuts due to AI. It’s only a matter of time before the impact is seen here.

Hold off on those expensive summer vacation to France, Germany or other places like some did in 2025. We are in for a rough ride ahead. Believe it or not AI is coming for our jobs even here at CNRL, it’s just a matter of time.

President Donald Trump hosts a roundtable with top technology leaders, including IBM CEO Arvind Krishna and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon, to discuss economic growth and deregulation. Krishna commends the administration’s efforts to simplify business operations and...

https://youtu.be/3Ps37tGEdkw?si=qi7yqTHFdb3EeK8F

The Lebanon, Tennessee-based family-dining chain did not say how many employees will be affected by the restructuring, which is taking place in two waves. But the company estimated that the process will save it $20 million to $25 million a year.

https://www.restaurantbusinessonline.com/financing/cr--ker-barrel-cuts-corporate-staff-sales-profits-tumble

Alabama has not had any mass layoffs recently, but economic changes and trends across sectors indicate that the risk of further job cuts remains present.

If there is a global financial reset like they are talking about, employed or not, we’re all in trouble. Half the economist don’t want to talk about it out of fear that it’d cause a panic sell of stocks, which in turn expedites it. The other half have been singing it from the rafters as a warning. IF it does happen, your dollar is worthless. Your paycheck regardless of amount will all be equal, the same value, nada. What concerns me is that economist all over the globe are worried about the same thing and are leaning more toward a “when” instead of an “if” it will happen. Thoughts?

Economists are still waiting on fresh federal job stats, but other indicators are already pointing to the possibility of a recession in New Jersey next year.

https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2025/12/could-layoffs-in-nj-preview-a-recession-in-2026/

Great Dane announced it will cut back its workforce in Elysburg early next year as the market slows. The company says as many as 164 workers might be impacted, depending on economic conditions.

https://www.wkok.com/great-dane-announces-layoffs-at-elysburg-plant/

Stagflation -

High Inflation - Low Growth.

Is (by far) the greatest threat to the U.S. economy.

High Inflation caused by Trump tariffs.

Unemployment caused by Low Growth.

AI spending helps GDP growth, but U.S. consumer spending is 68%+ of GDP.

Fact -

(U.S.) ISM manufacturing is now (Down) for the (9th consecutive month in a row) due to declining new orders, and service deliveries.

This coincides with the (start) of Trump tariffs.

There’s no massive layoff wave in Wisconsin, but plenty of smaller and mid-sized cuts across different industries are creating a lot of uncertainty. If economic pressures continue, more job losses are definitely possible.

Horrible economic news as layoffs surge to the highest point in years. The USA has laid off over a million people in 2025 and it’s only expected to get worse. These numbers could exceed what we have seen in the Great Depression. In November there were 71,000 layoffs in the United States.

One day after quarterly earnings call, stock hits the low point for the year. Can Wiley dig itself out of this ongoing mess?

IBM will continue layoffs until it finds a business model that works and works reliably for many years. For the last two decades, Software, Hardware, and Services have taken turns playing the IBM not-me game. I won’t make profit, but I will amplify that other team which will directly own your profit. Without my synergy, you will surely fail, so you must keep me. Every couple years, a new profit maker is anointed and a new round of the game begins.

Even if they find a model, it needs to work reliably for many years. Not so long ago at the beginning of Watson (AI), a Watson kick-off meeting was held in Austin for the entire Watson management team. The business plan presented would rapidly accelerate to stratospheric heights in 3 or better yet 2 years and remain there for 20-30 years before starting a gradual and still profitable decline. Commoditization utterly destroyed this plan and business in 18 months. Models fail even faster in 2025.

In a world of cheap vanilla-grade CPUs, RAM, networking, and storage and completely free software, it’s hard to find a higher grade product that people will pay for outside of regulated businesses. And those who do unquestionably need the value add point to the cheap stuff and demand lower pricing. And the cowards in sales fear losing 100% of their commission and decide that a steep discount benefits both them and their client.

This is nothing new; it’s just come to IBM’s corner of tech now. In the 80’s there was a battle between two consumer video storage systems: Betamax and VHS. The cheaper — in both senses — won out. There were superior alternatives to Compact Discs for audiophiles, but the CD wiped them off the market. MP3 audio compression is terrible, but it dominated the music streaming and download business for a long time.

All 3 of IBM’s pillars (Hardware, Services, and Software) have experienced their own versions of this. That’s why they play not-me. IBM has 3 future strategies. Hybrid Cloud, which can’t sustain an IBM-sized business. AI which is already deep into the commoditization spiral and has as an industry accumulated over a trillion dollars in debt. IBM has already stepped off the AI stage, preferring to serve as high-end salesmen for partners’ actual products packaged up with an IBM bow. Quantum Computing: how many non-governmental clients will actually need this capability badly enough to shoulder some risk, finance the development costs, and pay ongoing support. Quantum computing could be the opening for IBM to become the CocaCola Bottling company of tech — providing a low-profit product that makes others fabulously wealthy.

Until these things change, IBM will have to undergo periodic amputations. When it ends in one or more passes through Bankruptcy Court, then we will discover how bad things can get.

A once failing tech company called Apple righted itself for a while by leaving the tech industry and joining the fickle fashion industry. Is there another industry where centenarian IBM might fit well?

Buckle up folks … and prepare for turbulence for the duration of the flight.

Perfectly said, @tq+1kb1metdd.

U.S.-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, up 183% from September and up 175% from October 2024, according to job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“This is the highest total for October in over 20 years, and the highest total for a single month in the fourth quarter since 2008. Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the landscape,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-job-cuts-surged-183-123000806.html

New jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, increased to 477 in the week ending November 21, up from 418 the week before, the Labor Department said.

https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/2025/11/28/unemployment-numbers/87495499007/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

ADP data shows private companies cut an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 8, signaling faster layoffs.

The latest ADP Pulse contrasts with October, when private firms added 42,000 jobs.

U.S. companies eliminated more than 150,000 jobs in October, the highest October total since 2003.

Economists are relying more on ADP reports because federal labor data has been delayed by the recent 43 day government shutdown.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will fold some missing October data into the November report and will not release an October unemployment rate.

But I’ll put up with whatever nonsense they throw at us, because there’s basically nothing out there right now. It feels like we’re completely cornered, and I hate that feeling.

I lost a job I didn’t even like, and I definitely won’t miss my manager, or a few people on my team, for that matter. But I’m still terrified of what’s out there. I’ve saved enough to bridge myself over for a bit, which helps ease the anxiety. I’m giving myself some time to decompress, and then I know I’ll flip straight into panic mode the moment I start dealing with the job market. I have this feeling things will get worse before they get better. It’s really hard to feel even remotely optimistic these days.

U.S. companies cut more than 150,000 jobs in October, the highest number of layoffs for that month since 2003.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2025/11/25/ADP-jobs-economyq/2961764076980/

Agency just sprung the December furlough on me. 3 weeks this time. This is getting old real quick.

Just in time for the holidays, many U.S. employers have doled out pink slips. This recent move left thousands of Americans jobless and could have a ripple effect on the economy as a whole.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/4-ways-amazon-other-recent-110358916.html

• Maryland layoffs rise nearly 30%, reflecting nationwide job cut trends.
• In a report, AI was the second most cited reason for job cuts in October.
• Federal DOGE cuts accounted for over 300,000 job losses earlier this year.
• Experts say AI will replace some roles but create new types of jobs.

https://thedailyrecord.com/2025/11/21/maryland-layoffs-ai-job-cuts-2025/

Unemployment rate is already 4.4% and climbing to numbers we've seen during Covid. If AI is about to replace us, who's going to buy services and products from Dell? Mostly corporate customers use Dell, and they are going to be hit hard by bubble bursting... hold your hats, we are going to have a crazy ride in 2026

What now?

Technology Sector layoffs -

Here are the (current) numbers, year-to-date; which includes Verizon laying off; 15,000 employees next week.

2025 - Total (thus far).

644 Layoffs - 201,675 employees affected (624 people per day).

2024 - Total (for comparisons).

1,115 Layoffs - 239,101 employees affected (655 people per day).

The stock market, and the U.S. economy are (2) different things (ultimately) the stock market will catch-up.

I still project a Major Recession enroute for the U.S. economy by mid-2026 (should current trends continue).

These are the facts.

Those earnings calls just dropped and… WHEW. If you thought things looked “meh” before, baby, we’re about to enter the Ugly Season™. ANOTHER round of LAYOFF is creeping up like a bad jump scare, so please — do NOT get too cozy in that ergonomic chair.

The corporate Titanic isn’t just sinking… It’s speed-running straight into the iceberg, Kmart style!

So instead of whining, here’s your survival kit — Update that dusty resume. Polish your LinkedIn glow-up. Tap your network like your life depends on it — because it might

Move FAST, fam.

Winter is coming… and so is HR.

If they're telling you they don't know they're either lying or they're on the chopping block too. Calls will begin on Thursday (100% no doubt).

This is THE worst kept secret in Verizon... and elsewhere for that matter. Upper management is ticked off that this leaked. Honestly, what do you expect when you "whack and hack" 15% across the board without really knowing what you're doing?

I am feel sorry for those let go because the job market right now is just not great. There is life outside of Verizon, you may have to look for it ... for quite a while.

Good luck people...

Fed Rate cuts have (Never) -

Mattered.

For the stock market either, reference the 2008 Great Financial Crisis; for example.

In a deep recession, or (Worse) scenario.

This is where Treasury (Bessent) and the Fed are (Totally Wrong).

Verizon layoff next week - 15,000 employees (their Largest ever).

hold on, it's going to get rough

I've been searching everywhere for over a year, and nothing has come through. I only had two interviews in that entire period, and I was ghosted after both. I honestly don't remember the job market ever being this bad, and that just makes the idea of any upcoming layoffs feel even more terrifying than usual.

I’m afraid the holiday season will flop, and things will only get worse from there. Jobs are scarce, most of us have little to no savings, and there’s nothing to fall back on if it really hits hard. Maybe I’m anxious for no reason, but the vibe has never felt worse in my memory.

when half the population is jobless because of AI, who is going to buy the products that the company needs to pay out the $80 MILLION a year that the executive board has been getting paid?