#inflation

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Pay Raise or Net Decrease?

The scam continues with a 2026 pay raise less than inflation. Inflation caused by Aramco’s buddies to the north. In the last 10 years that leaves only 1, 2024, where Ali and the scammers beat inflation with a decent pay raise. Do yourself a favor if you’re still there and figure how much your salary has decreased when factoring inflation. And for anyone considering moving to the Toxic environment, offered both indoors and outdoors (worst air quality in the world), think about an avg 1-3% annual raise before stepping on the plane to the land of empty quarters…and empty promises.


Something I'm not able to fully grasp

So it's a record quarter for Dell. Fiscal Numbers are good and all that. I keep hearing from both Glassdoor and here that there's so much wrong with ISG and CSG. Idrac su-ks. Power scale su-ks. Objectscale su-ks. Dell networking su-ks. Telco su-ks. Dell says EMC su-ks and EMC says Dell su-ks. This su-ks. That su-ks.

Now I completely get that gutting the employee count, not keeping up with the inflation does do some help with the fiscal position of the company where they can showcase more dollars, raise the stocks, etc. however I can't believe that that alone is a factor of a healthy fiscal quarter. There has to be genuinely good products that the company does produce to actually meet or exceed the expectations of the quarter right ?

So it's not technically a 100% trash company like some posts make it out to be ?

If it's not actually bad, then what areas does Dell do well, realistically speaking ? What are some actual positives ?

I'm not HR or Jeff or Michael. I'm just a regular I-7 in ISG, late 20s in age, trying to get some sliver of optimism in this mad world.


SAVE YOUR MONEY! STAGFLATION - High Oil Prices, AI taking over jobs, Layoffs earlier

SAVE YOUR MONEY! STAGFLATION - High Oil Prices, AI taking over jobs, Layoffs will occur earlier than later. Corporations will feel the pain with increase in inflation. Markets will decline for months. Just because the war stops doesn't mean things get back to normal right away. It will take years to recover and go back to normal. USA debt increases from $38 Trillion to $40 Trillion soon.


Most companies will pull forward Layoffs due to increasing prices due to OIL and WAR

Many companies will pull forward their layoffs that were planned for later on the year (in the second half of 2026) to the first half of 2026 due to oil price increases and the cost of war, inflation causing everything to go up.
Save your money. Forget the vacation and brand name anything. Save enough money to pay your bills and put food on the table. AI was already taking jobs and now higher cost of OIL will also do the same.


Fed Interest Rates & The State of the (Real) U.S. economy.

Fed Interest rates -

Having studied the past several Major recessions (dotcom bust - Mar 2000 - Oct 2002, and 2008 GFC included), this is what I found.

When the Fed started cutting Interest rates (and kept it going) it signaled the start of a Major recession.

The (current) Fed quandary is rising Inflation which will get (Much worse) with the (new) 15.0% Trump Import tariffs, and the U.S. Iran War causing energy prices (both Oil, and LNG) to rise; which also affects both product; and food prices.

When the Fed started doing that it signaled the U.S. economy was in (Very serious) trouble.

LEI - Leading Economic Index (6 months out), and the CEI - Coincident Economic Index (current) the (True) state of the U.S. economy.

For the past several months, the LEI has (Consistently trended Down) and has fallen below the CEI; the chart shows that the U.S. economy should be (or is headed towards a Major recession) within 6 months; or so (if current trends continue).

U.S. GDP is (currently) being (manipulated positive) by spending - U.S. government, AI; and Healthcare; along with Fed stimulus.

These are the facts.


You're being gaslit

Pay equity? That's a massive raise for the CEO and "meaningful increases" for low-mid rank salaries, but 2 years of 0% awards for director level and above.

HR said to focus on total comp but oh dear what's that you say cumulative inflation since Covid is nearly 30%? No time for any more questions I'm afraid.


Nazarro's Promised Reward Realized

Fourteen months ago, Frank Nazarro said if you were still here in a year, there would be some sort of grand reward.

What is this grand reward comprised of?

  • Lived through a work nightmare for well over a year

  • Congratulations for making Fannie's 10K mention Freddie as a "risk factor"

  • The promise that gen AI will continue to replace non-Indians

  • Indians only hiring other Indians. Those of european descent get to figure out how to apply for unemployment. Our children we struggled to put through college left to flip burgers, because Indians only hire other Indians

  • A salary that is so far behind the REAL inflation (not the government adjusted bogus inflation), that some of us have begun juggling bills so we can still afford to put something in the basket at the grocery store

  • THESE* are your grand rewards for getting Freddie Mac through the past year.

THANKS TRAITOR PULTE

Difficult to refinance one's home when one has been laid off. Freddie doesn't care, all the contractor backfills are 100% Indian. So Freddie saves money by laying off Americans. The contractors can be converted to full time in the future.

So many teams are 100% Indian. No remaining teams are 100% any race, but they still include a continually growing number of Indians.

Now, stand up, and give yourself a round of applause! Freddie Mac has put one over on the USA, and in the process, is helping to replace the working population of our Nation.


Stock Together/ Base Pay Increases

Anyone seen BPI yet? Curious to see if Stock together is really gone. No longer shows on open job reqs, VZ benefits external page or in Total rewards.

Will there actually be raises this year? Or will they give people nonsense like 1 or 2% and not keep up with inflation at all?


Anxiety Up

Prosper Insights Finds Consumer Job Anxiety Up, Price Pressure Down

Prosper Insights & Analytics data reveals rising U.S. consumer job security concerns. This increase occurred over the past twelve months. Meanwhile, inflation-related spending pressure has eased. Their January 2026 survey shows 42% expect more layoffs. This is a significant rise from 32% reported last January.

https://www.tallahassee.com/press-release/story/19772/prosper-insights-analytics-data-shows-rising-job-concerns-over-past-year-as-inflation-pressures-ease/


Trump Account Matching - Seriously You Don't Realize.

U.S. Government needs the (future) Tax revenue from (New children) born in the U.S.

Since households are having less children over time.

In 2025, it was 1.6 children per household.

1946 - 1964 - Baby boomer generation it was 3.6 children per household.

Inflation expenses.


Any guesses as to US merit increase?

Chris: “we’ve had another stellar year. Recording breaking. Our strategy is firing on all cylinders.

Merit increases thus year will be 2.5%. Inflation is 6%. Yes, I know that your standard of living decreases every year you stay at TransUnion. But I’m not the chump. You are. Because you stay.

Sorry about that. All these first class airfares to fly around the world for dubious business benefit sure do add up. “


Divergence - The (Real) U.S. economy, and the stock market.

Divergence -

The U.S. economy, and the stock market; specifically the (AI) trade.

Paradox - AI (Valuations), and (Extreme) volatility; in the stock market.

Recent U.S. economic, and stock market observation(s) over the past week -

The AI trade is back (for now) after reporting from Micron (MU).

AI trade valuation(s) are (trying to make a run back) to the NASDAQ high on 10/29/25 whether justified (or not).

The U.S. economy is (still) moving towards a potential Major Recession in 2026.

The Unemployment rate has reached its' highest level since October 2021 with Corporate layoffs to resume Q1 2026 with claims following.

Q1 2026 is (currently) scheduled to have Major Downsizing in the Corporate world especially in the Technology sector.

ISM manufacturing, otherwise known as PMI; has been down for (9) consecutive month's; since Trump tariffs were enacted.

Finally, November Core CPI (Inflation) came in at 2.7% but was missing data from October due to the U.S. Government shutdown.

Inflation (actually) rose month-to-month.


U.S. Core CPI (Inflation) reported at 2.7%. There is a Major problem though. The October data is missing due to the U.S. government shutdown.

The U.S. consumer knows that prices for goods, and services; (Increased).

For those that are (not) aware the U.S. Government is (only) funded through January 30th of 2026.

Core CPI Inflation data was (Never) collected in (Total) for October 2025.

November CPI is wrong.

Inflation (Actually) rose.


Inflation and Recession in 2026

They say inflation is going down since 2023 but I still see everything breaking the bank including basics like groceries to homes. Stock market is predicting a recession next year by end of year. Taking careful financial steps and planning next year is the key to survive.


No merit increases... layoffs the next step?

No matter how well you were ranked this year, no merit raises for next year (effectively a pay cut if you factor in inflation). A whole year of trying to care to essentially be told I was d-mb for not doing the bare minimum. We all know that John May has said he's never going to pay someone to quit ever again, so how long before he decides to not pay us in a layoff?


The (current) Labor market, and reality.

Stagflation -

High Inflation - Low Growth.

Is the greatest threat to the U.S. economy (by far).

The Fed lowering Interest rates in the Trump tariff environment will (not) help the labor market (at all).

The Fed should have at least held Interest rates steady this month.

Layoffs continue to Increase, and will ramp up (even more) during 2026 with the (Very strong possibility) of a Major recession; enroute.


Stagflation - High Inflation - Low Gtowth. Layoffs to keep (Increasing) while Inflation (Rises) into 2026.

Stagflation -

High Inflation - Low Growth.

Is (by far) the greatest threat to the U.S. economy.

High Inflation caused by Trump tariffs.

Unemployment caused by Low Growth.

AI spending helps GDP growth, but U.S. consumer spending is 68%+ of GDP.

Fact -

(U.S.) ISM manufacturing is now (Down) for the (9th consecutive month in a row) due to declining new orders, and service deliveries.

This coincides with the (start) of Trump tariffs.


Getting a Pay Cut...

Got an annual raise of 1.3% as a TDGUS employee. U.S. inflation is probably in the 2.5-3.0% range next year (~2.9% for 2025?) - so I'm effectively getting a pay cut. Why does the bank think this is OK to do? I like working here, love my work, and enjoy collaborating with my coworkers. Rated middle of the pack - I'm not expecting a crazy raise or anything - but at this rate I will have to start looking for another role inside or outside the bank just to keep up with the cost of living. It's just depressing that to see $hit like this...


Pay & Inflation Question

Is your salary keeping up with inflation???

Mine definitely is not.

when I look back and adjust for inflation, I realize I am makin less now than I did 15 years ago, even though my responsibilities and workload have gone up.

Costs keep rising and rising and rising --- everything from groceries to housing to basic bills, yet wages do not seem to move at the same pace. It is frustrating to feel like you are working just as hard, if not harder, but falling behind in real terms. Just putting that out there.


Lowe's revenue

With inflation in building products ,Lowe's revenue would be down ? Year on year ?
Lowe's reported revenue up .04 % .But inflation in building materials was up at least 50% last year .


The Fed, AI; and the (Real) U.S. economy.

The Fed, AI; and the (Real) U.S. economy -

In this U.S. economy.

A spending spree (most likely) will (not) happen.

Lowering Interest rates in a Major Recession (type) of environment for now, but reality mid-2026; which I still project (if current trends continue).

In fact, it takes Fixed Income Interest gains (out) of the U.S. economy.

Won't matter, the Unemployment rate will continue to rise into 2026.

Several factors have (and are) contributing, Trump tariffs; AI, pandemic overstaffing; and High Inflation for the U.S. consumer.

There are positives to AI, but the Negatives are -

Replacement of entry-level white-collar jobs (taking away opportunities) less employees means less Tax revenue paid, and Increasing utility prices (electricity) due to Increased strain on the power grid by AI data centers.

The U.S. National debt (currently) stands at $38.2 Trillion (exponentially rising over time) with Interest paid of $969.0 Billion a year (almost a Trillion a year) by U.S. Taxpayers (not AI) to outside Investors (U.S. based, Japan, China; etc.) who finance it over time.

These are the facts.


I’ve said it before, even the rich are questioning the price tags

Even the wealthy 1% are not spending at Neiman Marcus, they are getting sticker shock as well. Look at the prices compared to just 5 years ago, it’s two and three times what they use to be. $6,000 for a Prada bag that was $3,200 in 2020….come on’.


The Treasury is retiring the Penny, how can we?

A few commonalities between the penny (1 cent) and Penny:

  • The penny is 232 years old, Penny’s reign feels just as long.
  • The first penny had a woman, free flowing hair, symbolizing liberty. This Penny symbolizes tyranny.
  • A “penny for her thoughts” is worth the same.
  • Her “two cents” isn’t worth much as it used to…inflationary talking points.
  • The U.S. Mint’s fiscal year 2024 report said the one-cent coin cost 3.7 cents to produce, a 20% increase from the year before. Penny’s yearly pay increases mimics the same increase.

Remember “a penny saved is a penny earned” and a “Penny saved is a lesson learned”


The Labor Market - AI & The Fed.

In regards -

To the Labor market.

This is where Treasury (Bessent) and the Fed would be (Totally Wrong).

No amount of Fed cuts will keep the Unemployment rate from rising further.

This is due to (2) things -

AI promoting gains in productivity, and efficiency; reducing the need for employees over time (mainly in computer-driven jobs, including manufacturing (AI robots) in the future; this is where the Trump thesis is (Totally Wrong) in regards to bringing back manufacturing to the U.S. (employee-wise).

Risks to (rising) Inflation (to the Real consumer-driven (68% of GDP economy) over time increasing Stagflation - High Inflation - Low Growth.

The (Major Downside to AI) while it may lead to increased GDP growth.

AI does (not) pay Tax revenues (replacing Employees that (actually) do).

As the U.S. National debt (exponentially) keeps rising, now past $38.2 Trillion with Interest paid to outside Investors (U.S. based, Japan; China; etc.) of $969.0 Billion a year (almost a Trillion) by U.S. taxpayers; it becomes a (Much bigger) problem weighing on the Real consumer-driven (68% of GDP) U.S. economy (where there are (currently (7) debt Bubbles) at (record) levels.

The (7) Debt Bubbles (at record levels) are Household Debt, Housing, Credit Card, Automotive, Student Loan, and Stock purchase financing.

(All) of these (7) Debt Bubbles are in the Trillions and keep rising, with (Defaults) are an ever-growing problem over time.


September CPI - Consumer Price Index posts today..

Annualized Core CPI -

Excludes food, and energy.

August - 3.1% (still high).

For each month during the year (and could be, or more) depending on the Trump tariffs effect on the U.S. economy (in the future, 2026 forward).

Trump China Import tariff rate (currently) is 30% through Nov 10th (pending a change in the future, Trump desires 80%).

Trump "Retaliatory" other country Import tariffs are up for Supreme Court review, starting in November.

(Most likely outcome) is $190.0+ Billion to be refunded back to Importers (with Interest) by Treasury (Bessent) due to being (Illegally) implemented by Trump during April 2025.

Congress is the (Legal) authority to implement levies.

Stagflation - High Inflation - Low Growth has (not) gone away.

Unemployment rate (still rising) U.S. government shutdown (still ongoing) Oil prices (still rising, at least for now; due to Russian oil sanctions imposed by Trump).