#economy

We are now in the era of the Haves and Have Nots.

Nothing more to add here.

Looks like we are joining the list.
Not sure how big the number will be but this looks bad:

1. UPS: 48,000 employees
2. Amazon: 30,000 employees
3. Intel: 24,000 employees
4. Nestle: 16,000 employees
5. Accenture: 11,000 employees
6. Ford: 11,000 employees
7. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
8. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
9. PwC: 5,600 employees
10. Salesforce: 4,000 employees
11. Paramount: 2,000 employees
12. Target: 1,800 employees
13. A. Materials: 1,444 employees
14. Kroger: 1,000 employees
15. Meta: 600 employeesRetry

In regards -

To the Labor market.

This is where Treasury (Bessent) and the Fed would be (Totally Wrong).

No amount of Fed cuts will keep the Unemployment rate from rising further.

This is due to (2) things -

AI promoting gains in productivity, and efficiency; reducing the need for employees over time (mainly in computer-driven jobs, including manufacturing (AI robots) in the future; this is where the Trump thesis is (Totally Wrong) in regards to bringing back manufacturing to the U.S. (employee-wise).

Risks to (rising) Inflation (to the Real consumer-driven (68% of GDP economy) over time increasing Stagflation - High Inflation - Low Growth.

The (Major Downside to AI) while it may lead to increased GDP growth.

AI does (not) pay Tax revenues (replacing Employees that (actually) do).

As the U.S. National debt (exponentially) keeps rising, now past $38.2 Trillion with Interest paid to outside Investors (U.S. based, Japan; China; etc.) of $969.0 Billion a year (almost a Trillion) by U.S. taxpayers; it becomes a (Much bigger) problem weighing on the Real consumer-driven (68% of GDP) U.S. economy (where there are (currently (7) debt Bubbles) at (record) levels.

The (7) Debt Bubbles (at record levels) are Household Debt, Housing, Credit Card, Automotive, Student Loan, and Stock purchase financing.

(All) of these (7) Debt Bubbles are in the Trillions and keep rising, with (Defaults) are an ever-growing problem over time.

Job cuts in October hit 153,074 - up 183% from September and 175% from last year. Highest October since 2003.

Tech sector cut 33,281 jobs, nearly 6 times September's number, due to AI changes.

Total for 2025: 1.1 million cuts, up 65% from 2024. Worst year since 2009.

People losing jobs are struggling to find new ones quickly.

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/job-cuts-in-october-hit-highest-level-for-the-month-in-22-years-challenger-says.html

Job cuts for October totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. It was the highest level for any October since 2003 and has been the worst year for layoffs since 2009.

Companies in the technology sector announced 33,281 cuts, nearly six times the level in September.

should we not expect could cost to come down drastically, thank to AI - Why it is goin up instead- profiteering ?

https://archive.ph/Fj2c0

We are going to charge 25 cents up to 99 cents the next few years to bring up our revenues if the economy wind tail doesn’t meet the wind head anytime soon. Start updating your skills on banana and coffee too just in case.

M&M sell vehicles at less than half the current prices - thank to AI tools... The buyers --- robots working in factories.... they will buy and drive.............

Joke ?

No income no buyer, no jobs ,,,, no market for the cars

one year of great profits and after that global recession..

AI does (not) -

Pay Tax revenues.

On the (exponentially rising) U.S. National debt of $38.0 Trillion whereby U.S. taxpayers pay approximately ($969.3 Billion in Interest a year) to outside Investors (almost a Trillion a year) that are both U.S. based, and foreign like Japan; and China; for example.

AI won't replace (anything) that is (not) computer driven.

CEO Elon Musk recently made a (Very incompetant) statement that it would replace (all) jobs.

It won't, but it will replace a lot of entry-level white collar jobs; and a lot of manufacturing; though.

Shouldn't job preference be given to American workers first? The economy is struggling, and many young people can't find decent jobs. Yet, this administration is not enforcing any rule in the labor or immigration process to ensure that companies interview American workers before hiring others.

This is just to put it in the perspective.
We are a rounding error in this economy.

The collapse of Fiserv should be a warning sign for every US citizen. The executive branch of the US Government is operating in the same way as Fiserv...even some of the same players are involved. The outcome will be the same. Find a safe haven for your assets and buckle in because this will be a wild ride!

Heard some people here might’ve been let go a couple days ago, it’s hard not to worry. Feels like the writing’s on the wall. People are spending less, things are slowing down. I just hope this isn’t the start of something bigger.

It’s going to be a painful holiday season for those here and officials recession coming right at beginning of 2026. They will throw you under bus soon

It stimulates economic growth.

Businesses start spending. When businesses spend, they hire more employees. When companies hire more employees, the job market improves. When the job market improves, everyone will leave for greener pastures.

Bye bye!

The corporate bloodbath picks up speed with Amazon's announcement today to layoff 14,000 corporate employees (following their announcement to replace 600,000 warehouse workers with AI driven robots over the next 24 months) and following mass layoff announcements other major technology/retail brands; Target, Meta, Accenture, Rivian, Paycon, etc.

I would suggest everyone update their resumes but if, like mine, your skillset is corporate related, it hardly seems like there is a point.

Good chance Canon could get involved again during slow time in January / February. Anyone know if the numbers have improved? My small division is doing okay, but not reflective of company-wide hardware sales.

In the "AI Ponzi Flywheel" circulates money in a self-reinforcing loop which Cisco is a part of. This artificially inflates valuations without any broad external revenue

First, Nvidia and AMD inject low-cost financing directly into OpenAI (like Nvidia's $100 billion commitment and AMD's warrants for cheap stock)

this is for infrastructure purchases.

OpenAI then deploys these funds to acquire cloud compute from Oracle and CoreWeave (Nvidia-backed), along with networking equipment from Cisco via the Stargate UAE project.

Then, Oracle and CoreWeave reinvest OpenAI's payments to procure more Nvidia and AMD GPUs, expanding their capacity, while Microsoft amplifies the cycle through equity stakes and Azure integrations. Hype-fueled stock surges enable warrant exercises or stake sales, recycling profits back into further financing rounds. This internal churn sustains $20 trillion market caps and reported growth, like Nvidia's $300-500 billion projections and $64 billion cash flow, but hinges on perpetual inflows amid low data center utilization (60-90%) and ongoing losses ($10 billion annually for OpenAI)

This is a more fragile system than dot-com and the housing bubble combined. A single disruption could evaporate trillions in value.

the actual utility from AI is minimal. "agentic AI", "vibe coding" are losers and cause more problems than they solve.

AI is just a summarization machine that also makes it easy to pump out horrifcally tasteless videos for the masses

The Trump Tax bill -

What things are (truly) about.

Should (never) have been passed.

Which provided $600.0+ Billion in Tax savings to the wealthy over a 10-year period.

The (Interest alone) paid on the $38.0+ Trillion (and rising) U.S. National debt by U.S. taxpayers is (currently) $963.0 Billion a year (almost a Trillion a year).

The Trump Tax bill (alone) will increase the U.S. National debt by (another) $3.74 Trillion (minimum) over a 10-year period.

While taking away Medicare subsidies from the lower income, and the poor; who (actually) need them to help with healthcare costs.

While taking away Medicare subsidies from rural hospitals that (actually) need them to stay in operation for their respective communities.

There is (no) negotiating.

The Medicare subsidies (need) to be restored, or the U.S. government remains shutdown until the Trump party agrees.

AI spending -

Is driving the stock market (for now) but be aware.

The (7) Major Debt bubbles.

U.S. economic-financial system.

Debt bubbles (ultimately) lead to crashes (especially in the stock market).

Total household debt - $18.4 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 2nd quarter (a record).

It has been proven time-and-time again in U.S. history.

All of these are at (record) levels.

List of (current) U.S. debt bubbles -

U.S. National debt - $37.9 Trillion, and (rising) exponentially per usdebtclock (add another $3.74 Trillion (minimum) from the Trump Tax bill). Financed by outside Investors (a record).

U.S. mortgage debt - $12.94 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 2nd quarter (a record).

U.S. credit card debt - $1.33 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 3rd quarter (a record).

U.S. automotive debt - $1.66 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 3rd quarter (a record).

U.S. student loan debt - $1.81 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 3rd quarter (a record).

There is also (record) debt ($1.13 Trillion, September 2025 per FINRA) in the stock market by Investors financing purchases.

The U.S. Government shutdown (still ongoing) proves the U.S. National debt part (even more).

These are the facts.

Annualized Core CPI -

Excludes food, and energy.

August - 3.1% (still high).

For each month during the year (and could be, or more) depending on the Trump tariffs effect on the U.S. economy (in the future, 2026 forward).

Trump China Import tariff rate (currently) is 30% through Nov 10th (pending a change in the future, Trump desires 80%).

Trump "Retaliatory" other country Import tariffs are up for Supreme Court review, starting in November.

(Most likely outcome) is $190.0+ Billion to be refunded back to Importers (with Interest) by Treasury (Bessent) due to being (Illegally) implemented by Trump during April 2025.

Congress is the (Legal) authority to implement levies.

Stagflation - High Inflation - Low Growth has (not) gone away.

Unemployment rate (still rising) U.S. government shutdown (still ongoing) Oil prices (still rising, at least for now; due to Russian oil sanctions imposed by Trump).

I have been an Advisor/Senior Advisor for 15+ years. I’m realizing that the 20-somethings are mostly at the same level. I’m guessing promotions aren’t available in this economy.

so do not complain here, just go and see what other companies are doing.

it's rough.

U.S. economic-financial system -

Debt bubbles (ultimately) lead to crashes (especially in the stock market).

It has been proven time-and-time again in U.S. history.

All of these are at (record) levels.

List of (current) U.S. debt bubbles -

U.S. National debt - $37.8 Trillion, and (rising) exponentially per usdebtclock (add another $3.74 Trillion (minimum) from the Trump Tax bill). Financed by outside Investors (a record).

U.S. mortgage debt - $12.94 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 2nd quarter (a record).

U.S. credit card debt - $1.21 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 2nd quarter (a record).

U.S. automotive debt - $1.66 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 3rd quarter (a record).

U.S. student loan debt - $1.81 Trillion, and (rising) as of 2025 2nd quarter (a record).

There is also (record) debt ($1.06 Trillion, August 2025 per FINRA) in the stock market by Investors financing purchases.

These are the facts.

Importing labor or importing goods, what's the difference?

There is no difference.

Good jobs are sent oversee and only execs and hedge funds benefit.

Stop destroying our worker and our country because of your greed.

Those of you who remember the 2008 banking crisis should be paying attention to the regional Banks today. Looks like history is rhyming. Zions and Western Alliance have become stressed. Since financial markets never operate in a vacuum, let's see how the major banks do. The Fed should stand aside this time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJzETvTMUx8

And they say "if expectation of AI become less optimistic". Less optimistic? What happens when all their lies are completely exposed? Sam Altman makes Elon Musk look like a truth teller.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/ups-may-begin-disposing-imported-packages-over-customs-issues.amp

November through February is going to be challenging, unless our current administration stabilizes the market soon.

Source below...

According to the Challenger layoff report, US hiring is at its lowest since the Great Recession, with nearly 1 million layoffs this year. AI gets the blame, but the deeper cause is decades of offshoring, financial engineering, and policy choices that depress wages while flattering headline stats. The template was set in 1965 with the Border Industrialization Program, maquiladoras importing inputs duty free, paying cents on the dollar, then re exporting with tariffs only on value added. By the 1980s there were 1,000 plus plants, Ford and GE shifted tens of thousands of jobs, and media reframed losses as cheaper goods.

Tariff cuts on Chinese imports in 1979 plus a new corporate mindset hardened the shift. Jack Welch cut about 115,000 US jobs at GE by 1985 and pioneered white collar outsourcing. The Reagan years touted job creation while more than 1.6 million jobs moved abroad, only 28 percent of new jobs were high skill, and young workers’ wages fell sharply. The 1990s added NAFTA and China PNTR, 879,000 trade certified job losses with true totals far higher, longer work hours masked stagnation, buybacks and options enriched executives while households captured about 3 percent of market gains and took on nearly 40 percent of new debt.

The skills shortage story enabled H-1B expansion and loopholes. Outsourcing firms used cap exempt affiliations to file year round and undercut pay, with 2013 probes showing 36 to 41 percent labor cost savings versus domestic hires. Today firms cite AI while filing thousands of H 1B petitions. Amazon cut roughly 27,000 roles from 2022 to 2024 plus 10,000 to 12,000 in 2025, yet logged 14,365 approvals across sponsor tiers. A proposed 100,000 dollar H 1B fee will not fix exemptions, contractor loopholes, or the 2017 tax code that still tilts savings offshore. Clarity first, action next, press representatives to close loopholes and demand truthful job ads, then keep building community so the pressure compounds.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEA7vQKJ8aQ

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careersandeducation/for-first-time-job-hunters-a-college-degree-isn-t-unlocking-the-opportunities-it-once-did-data-shows/ar-AA1NNst0?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=68e41bf87907428eb142c90c4cc00ddf&ei=24

Investors have parted with unprecedented sums of money to help AI fulfil its lofty promise. But no one really knows how it will all pay off.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-fears-trillion-dollar-ai-130008034.html

Joined 3 years ago. People tell me that prices go up and down, bo-m and bust cycles. That makes sense but it now feels that it'll never go up, almost like this is a systemic change. Not sure, it's just my gut feeling but I wanted to see if people with experience can chime in.

US layoffs fell in September, but hiring plans dropped to their lowest level in 16 years, according to new data. At the same time, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway agreed to acquire Occidental Petroleum’s OxyChem unit in a $9.7 billion deal, Tesla reported record Q3 EV deliveries, and OpenAI became the world’s most valuable private company with a $500 billion valuation.

U.S. employers cut nearly 950,000 jobs through September 2025, the highest number of layoffs since 2020, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Cuts could surpass 1 million this year. While still far below the 2 million layoffs in the same period of 2020, the rise highlights a weakening labor market. Hiring plans have also dropped sharply, with companies expecting to bring on 58% fewer workers compared to last year.

The government shutdown could lead to additional job losses, and data from ADP shows private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September. However, layoffs slowed in September to about 54,000, down 37% from August.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September and expects two more cuts this year, aiming to support businesses and consumers. Lower borrowing costs may help stabilize hiring, but ongoing challenges such as higher costs and new technology continue to pressure employers.

Economists expect Friday’s government jobs report to be delayed due to the shutdown, with private estimates forecasting only about 50,000 jobs added last month.

Will Cisco engage in another round of layoffs? yes. 100%
Will Cisco LRs happen next week? in November on the Q1 earnings call? in February on the Q2 earnings call? in May for Q3 or August for Q4/FY ? yes, probably.

Is Cisco bad? no. Cisco us a soulless entity (a corporation) that exists to enrich it's owners (shareholders). Some of the people who lead Cisco may be 'bad' but that is a value judgement.

You, the employee, have a choice to make. You can work and consume based on yesterday's economy or you can make some changes now.

You WILL get laid off and the economy, hiring environment and future looks bleak. These are facts and why you and your colleagues are feeling hyper stressed right now. IT feels unnatural. It feels different.

In the past a looming LR was a bad feeling, now its panic.

Use that panic to do something.

There are essentially two levers that you have control of, Your personal investing and your personal spending.

one the spending side the alarm klaxon should be wailing right now. start with the big rocks, for maost of you these are housing, transportation, healthcare, debt servicing ann education. For some of you it's bourbon, handbags or gadgetry.
This is not a "Latte Factor" discussion, saving $4 a day will not cut it.
Go hard. Be relentless. Sell your luxury car (while you can) and buy a reliable one. no one cares.
Trade down to a smaller, more affordable house in a nice neighborhood.
Review all of you insurance and healthcare needs and find ways to reduce expenditures.

on the investing side, build a cash reserve equal to 6 moths of expenses (at a minimum) Money Markets still earn close to 4% which is a great return for short term investments.

while you are doing that make sure you are investing enough into your 401K to get the company match (I don't work for Cisco but assume 4-5%) once you have your 6 months of expenses, max your 401k.

One benefit this gives you is that it helps you to remain tied to your ethical anchor. your principles and values matter. Financial stress creates ethical dilemmas. Financial Independence allows you to avoid many of those.

Cisco doesn't care about you because Cisco can't care about you. Some people at Cisco are good, some are bad. Embrace the good, reject the bad and stay true to yourself.

Let’s not let the government off the hook as they are enabling ExxonMobil and others. They had no problem letting blue collar jobs off shore for cheap products that are “reduced carbon emission” which is a joke in itself. And then letting wages be undercut by illegals given free access across the border.

Now high paying high skill jobs are being worked remote along with rotating “temporary” jobs under L1 visa which are in fact a permanent displacement of a full time person.

The government not only doesn’t care but don’t understand the magnitude and impact of all this and without a drastic shift in policy, it’s going to be very hard to put the genie sick in the bottle.

All I want to say is that, I hope this is being carefully managed. This and the housing bubble could burst at once... however, they keep listening to the very same people that are creating this bubble...

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The AI bubble is the only thing keeping the US economy together, Deutsche Bank warns

When the bubble bursts, reality will hit far harder than anyone expects

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED: Warnings about the overinflated prospects of a still-hypothetical "AI economy" continue to mount. Some analysts expect the AI bubble to burst sooner rather than later, arguing that current investment growth cannot continue indefinitely in a finite world.

According to a research note recently sent to clients by Deutsche Bank, the AI bo-m is currently helping the US economy avoid a recession but it cannot continue indefinitely. George Saravelos, Global Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, said the US would be close to a recession this year if Big Tech were not spending so heavily on building new AI data centers.

The "AI machines" are literally saving the US economy right now, Saravelos said, but this kind of growth cannot be sustained unless spending remains on an ever-growing course. Nvidia, the major supplier of powerful AI accelerators used in data centers, could potentially bear much of the residual growth the US economy has experienced in recent months.

"The bad news is that in order for the tech cycle to continue contributing to GDP growth, capital investment needs to remain parabolic. This is highly unlikely," Saravelos said.

Deutsche Bank highlights that much of this growth comes from new facilities being built by human workers, while the AI technology and services sector has yet to make a meaningful contribution to the GDP.

Around half of the market gains captured by the S&P 500 index have been driven by tech-related stocks, Deutsche Bank warns. A separate report by Torsten Sløk of Apollo Management concurs, noting that equity investors are "dramatically overexposed" to AI investments.

According to analysts at Bain & Co., even with all this spending, AI is likely to generate insufficient revenue to fund further growth initiatives. By 2030, anticipated demand for AI services would require $2 trillion in annual revenues, leaving a shortfall of $800 billion globally to meet that demand.

Nvidia recently committed $100 billion to OpenAI to build an additional 10 gigawatts of AI computing capacity, while OpenAI escalated the investment by planning a full network of new AI data centers. Meanwhile, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has acknowledged that AI investors are behaving irrationally, and some will inevitably lose significant sums of money as a result.

Will AI capital expenditure continue to surge with staggering figures and impossibly high revenue expectations? Baidu CEO Robin Li recently predicted that 99 percent of so-called AI companies will not survive the bubble, while legitimate businesses are now squandering money and potential productivity gains in an attempt to turn everything into an AI workload.

https://www.techspot.com/news/109626-ai-bubble-only-thing-keeping-us-economy-together.html

MORE WARNINGS:

AI bo-m drives record S&P 500 valuations, but Goldman Sachs warns of $1 trillion risk ahead

Investors debate how long Big Tech's AI spree can last

https://www.techspot.com/news/109358-ai-bo-m-drives-record-sp-valuations-but-goldman.html

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Auto Industry in Crisis: Why Plunging Sales and Mass Debt Signal a Broader Economic Threat

The cracks in the U.S. economy are becoming impossible to ignore, and the auto industry is flashing the brightest warning signs. From plummeting used-car sales at major retailers to mass bankruptcies among suppliers, a confluence of negative factors suggests a looming recession on Main Street that the stock market seems dangerously detached from.

The Used-Car and Truck Market Collapse

The evidence starts with sales figures and the struggling consumer:

CarMax stock is in freefall, down 40% this year, including a recent 20% single-day drop. The reason is clear: vehicle sales are declining, leading to a 28% decrease in net income.

The subprime auto loan market is buckling. Tricolor, a major subprime auto financier, filed for bankruptcy on September 10. High-risk lending is becoming unsustainable, with loan delinquencies at 5% and repossessions up 20% year-over-year (YOY). This signals that the hardest-hit consumers are running out of money.

The commercial side is just as weak. U.S. heavy truck sales have collapsed to levels lower than during the pandemic, plunging by 131,000 units, or 24%. A recent government response—a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks—is unlikely to help when the core problem is lack of demand, not foreign competition. If manufacturers can’t sell trucks and CarMax can’t sell cars, tariffs won't fix the underlying issue.

The Domino Effect on Manufacturing and Suppliers

The slowdown in sales has created a severe bottleneck in the supply chain, threatening the entire manufacturing ecosystem:

North American orders for goods are down 21% from the year before, signaling manufacturers are cutting future production plans.

This lack of demand is crushing suppliers under the weight of debt. First Brands, an American supplier that makes essential parts like water pumps and filters, filed for bankruptcy. The core reason: low orders from automakers. The company carries a staggering $6 billion in debt, illustrating how rapidly the crisis is moving up the supply chain.

The Economic Reckoning

These company and industry-specific problems translate directly to a broader economic downturn:

Job and Production Cuts: With sales falling and debt rising, manufacturers are forced to pull back on production, leading to cut hours and mass layoffs.

GDP Contraction: Decreased production and lost jobs immediately reduce business-to-business spending, which then triggers an overall dip in GDP and economic activity.

The Stock Market Disconnect: The data points to a major economic contraction, yet the broader stock market has remained resilient, creating a "bubble." If this economic reality forces a correction, the market risks a major "popping" event, threatening the pensions, 401(k)s, and wealth of millions of retail investors.

The bottom line is that the auto industry, a massive pillar of the American economy, is in deep distress. The warning signals are undeniable, suggesting that the current Wall Street enthusiasm is out of sync with Main Street's grim reality.