#economy

Rumors have it that techs in Texas and Florida have really noticed a slow down in the economy. Making techs feel uncertain about their financial future. Does Texas and Florida have a NO LAYOFF CLAUSE like Californias MOA?

UBS economists argue layoffs are happening at normal or elevated rates, not unusually low as often described.

Hiring has slowed while layoffs have risen, with unemployment claims at a 4-year high and August layoff announcements up 13% year over year.

If hiring slows further while layoffs continue at current levels, the labor market could contract and raise recession risks.

Official BLS data still shows layoffs near historic lows, but UBS economist Jonathan Pingle said it is not reliable for real-time tracking.

Many economists blame the government's tariff policies for weakening the job market, raising costs, fueling uncertainty, and reducing spending.

Source:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/layoffs-might-worse-economists-140455255.html

The number of U.S. rigs in operation has fallen this year, by around 69 to 414, according to Baker Hughes. Kirk Edwards, the president of Texas-based Latigo Petroleum, said, “We've gone from ‘drill, baby, drill' to 'wait, baby wait’ here in the Permian.” Many U.S. producers are waiting for oil prices to increase before they raise production, requiring between $70 and $75 a barrel to put rigs back into operation.

The decision to cut spending by many U.S. oil and gas majors, which follows a post-pandemic era of megamergers and high spending, has resulted in widespread job cuts. As OPEC+ looks to increase production in the coming months, we can expect the low oil price trend to continue, likely resulting in low profits for several U.S. companies, and cautious spending plans are expected for the coming months.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Majors-Slash-Jobs-Despite-Trumps-Fossil-Fuel-Push.html

• Booming AI demand this week sent Oracle's stock to a record high not long after reports that the computing giant laid off hundreds of workers.
• Several other tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon have recently cut jobs to lower costs while spending billions on AI expansion.
• Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has told employees that Amazon expects to operate with a smaller headcount in the coming years as AI advances.

https://www.investopedia.com/business-is-booming-for-many-tech-giants-they-re-laying-workers-off-anyway-oracle-11807131

So I have a couple of senior folks who work for Wall St. firms , and they have given me a heads up that Q1 is going to be a major hemorrhaging of white collar jobs,sectors mostly affected are big pharma, telecomm ( including at T. , VZ and CISCO) , and finance. .

Basically, companies are already pricing in the rate cut, but the unemployment numbers coupled with tarrifs effects and a expected weak holiday season is going to cause this.. so better save your nuts this winter..

The beginning is very warped. The film explores the impact of labor-saving machinery on employment and the economy. As factories ramp up production for defense needs, workers face potential layoffs due to automation. The narrative follows a group of factory workers and managers grappling with rising inventories and the challenge of selling increased output at higher prices. Despite aggressive marketing efforts, the lack of consumer purchasing power leads to a failure in sales campaigns. The film ultimately raises questions about balancing technological advancement with job security and the need for economic prosperity to enable consumer spending. Keywords automation, employment, labor-saving machines, production, layoffs, marketing, consumer purchasing power, economic prosperity, sales campaigns, job security Email us at footage@avgeeks.com if you have questions about the footage and are interested in using it in your project.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/smallbusiness/factory-workers-the-labor-movement-a-history-of-manufacturing-layoffs/vi-AA1AuH6j?ocid=msedgntp&pc=W230&cvid=68c313f38e1c4e1d93c93bbfe34cbb04&ei=47

https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/09/ai-bubble-us-economy/684128/

This is a long read so you have been warned up front. Those with ADHD/ADD take your adderal first and don't complain.

Good article talking about a potential AI bubble impact comparable to the Internet bubble impact from 2000-2002. The companies that are investing billions in AI research and data centers aren't seeing the return on investment they expected. Actual impacts of AI to the workforce haven't been as great as the media reports.

Maybe not having a core dependence on AI might benefit Intel if they can stay focused on fixing the manufacturing issues and stay in business long enough.

I’ve been putting all the energy and time I can into making sure I’ve got other options and some savings. I don’t expect things to get better, quite the opposite. More frequent, bigger layoffs are likely, because there’s no turning this ship around in this economy. It’ll get worse before it gets better, and who knows how far off that “better” really is. Save your energy, look out for yourself, and make sure you’ve at least got the basics to bridge the gap.

Virginia and New Jersey have been hit especially hard, a Stateline analysis shows.

https://westvirginiawatch.com/2025/09/01/states-begin-to-see-job-losses-from-trumps-cuts-housing-and-spending-slowdowns/

Most people are clueless of the world around them but please prepare. Here is why they are coming out with the severance plan(s) changes. SF is f-cked and so is our society. Verify and do your own research, you don't have to believe me... but this is what politics and corporations like SF have done to you! Greed, corruption and immorality, as history always repeats itself. Wake up and become truly WOKE! It's all going to come crashing down sooner than later!
AI will eliminate thousands of job
Automation is here! Ask underwriting
Too many non-customer facing jobs at SF - going away! Horrible new hires/workforce!
70-75% of people can't afford a home - we sell homeowners insurance ????
65-70% of people can't afford to buy a new car - we sell car insurance ????
2032-That is 6 years - Social Security goes insolvent and will only be able to pay 74% of benefits. What do you think people will do?
50% of people have no retirement savings.
60% of American can't cover a $1000 expense - everyone is broke!
Personal Credit Card debt just hit an all time high of $1.21 trillion.
$1.6 trillion dollars of student loan debt.
Average new car payment is $735! Record repossessions!
45% of Women Will Be Single by 2030 and will never have kids. (no more life insurance sells) Why do you think the US and Europe is flooding its countries with the third world, as Nancy P. said who is going to pick our crops or build stuff? I don't see white and black kids out there, do you?
Populatons - China - 1.46 billion and India 1.4 billion, USA - 356 million! Who do you think wins the economic wars with that much disposable labor!
60% of men are not dating and do not want to date.
$38 Trillion dollars in debt and we are spending $1 trillion a year to pay the interest on the loan. Still running trillions of dollars deficits.
By 2032 it will be $50 trillion and will cost taxpayers/you $2 trillion in interest. That means your taxes will have to double and inflation will get worse as we print more money! We have 801 billionaires in the USA worth $6.5 trillion. If we seized all their wealth/assets it would run the government for about 9 months! They would be broke...one time deal. It would also mean no more Amazon, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft etc...because most of their worth (Musk, Gates, Zuckerberg, Bezos) is stock ownership, not actually money in the bank. Sounds good but is not reality......
Not even going to even get into all re--rded culture issues .....
This does not end well, SF knows it but most of you do not! Educate yourself. At the end of the day, most of you will be standing in a bread line, begging for water and will ask yourself how this happened overnight...ignorance is bliss. Probably can't do anything about it as it is going to happen anyways. What comes next when it all goes down.... well, let's just say, it will be beyond anyone's comprehension and will make WWII and/or the Great Depression look like a vacation! Su-ks but true! Again you can research anything written here..take a few minutes....don't be that mindless lemming walking off the cliff like the rest of the retar-s! Severance packages are the least of your worries! Your welcome.....

5 year note is down to 3.7%. YTD Aggregate Bond Index up 4.97%. 3 YR Return up to 3.15%. Life is Good. Dancing in the streets. Back in the Black. 90% chance Fed will cut in Sept. No Lisa Cook ?!?!?!? Layoffs ?

Chipmaker Marvell Technology forecast quarterly revenue below market estimates on Thursday, disappointing investors who are accustomed to strong results from artificial intelligence-facing firms and sending its shares down 12% after hours.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/chipmaker-marvells-weak-data-center-forecast-prompts-ai-investors-dump-its-stock-2025-08-28/

John Deere Announces Layoffs as Slump in Agricultural Economy and Tariffs Hit Sales
As a direct result of the weakened demand and lower order volumes, John Deere has announced another round of layoffs.

https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/john-deere-announces-layoffs-as-slump-in-agricultural-economy-and-tariffs-hit-sales-38785

ChemAnalyst

Aug/26/2025 05:24 PM
Location: Moline, Illinois (John Deere HQ)

One in five U.S. employers surveyed by the Conference Board plans to slow hiring in the second half of 2025, nearly double the rate of companies that anticipated bringing on fewer people at this time last year.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/more-u-s-companies-plan-to-slow-hiring-in-second-half-of-2025/ar-AA1KWbFc

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2025/aug/24/layoffs-at-john-deere-reveal-how-trumps-trade-war/

This Board has gone de-ad quick. Is it vacations or are u afraid to discuss layoffs all of a sudden ? Jerome Powell spooked us all at Jackson Hole today with Fedspeake and Cap Management made some darn good cashola today with those coinbase and Intel positions...back in black sooner than you'll ever know...

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/unemployment-rate-by-state-2025/

How much of this is Ford's fault?

The vehicle manufacturing sector is under a lot of pressure. I’m afraid there will be more cuts.

https://theconversation.com/state-department-layoffs-could-hurt-us-companies-ability-to-compete-globally-an-economist-explains-why-262988

It’s not just that our manufacturing could take a hit. Agriculture is already struggling, demand has been going down steadily, and purchasing power is clearly slipping. A lot of folks are holding off on buying or investing simply because there’s so much uncertainty. All of that is bound to affect us down the line. And that likely means more cuts, more layoffs, and more of us out there looking for work. It feels like we’re sliding into a vicious cycle, and I’m worried about what all that will mean for our jobs.

Every time we had a meeting with our leaders, we're always told 'Man, It feels bad. Totally unprecedented. But we gotta keep our heads up. Support one another. Work leaner this year. Put aside all the angst and bottle it up.. etc'

Expect more layoffs and restructure in September/October 2025, especially for tech orgs. A lot of offloading being moved towards the Manilla and India teams. Our stock has dropped and is hovering in the high 80s, compared to 120 it used to be; but we can probably assume this economy under this administration isn't going to promote people to buy more (process more transactions)