#economy

Fed Interest rates -

Having studied the past several Major recessions (dotcom bust - Mar 2000 - Oct 2002, and 2008 GFC included), this is what I found.

When the Fed started cutting Interest rates (and kept it going) it signaled the start of a Major recession.

The (current) Fed quandary is rising Inflation which will get (Much worse) with the (new) 15.0% Trump Import tariffs, and the U.S. Iran War causing energy prices (both Oil, and LNG) to rise; which also affects both product; and food prices.

When the Fed started doing that it signaled the U.S. economy was in (Very serious) trouble.

LEI - Leading Economic Index (6 months out), and the CEI - Coincident Economic Index (current) the (True) state of the U.S. economy.

For the past several months, the LEI has (Consistently trended Down) and has fallen below the CEI; the chart shows that the U.S. economy should be (or is headed towards a Major recession) within 6 months; or so (if current trends continue).

U.S. GDP is (currently) being (manipulated positive) by spending - U.S. government, AI; and Healthcare; along with Fed stimulus.

These are the facts.

Year on Year Record Corporate Profits no longer translates to job creation but rather job elimination.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-layoffs-deflation-us-economy-job-market-outlook-citi-2026-2

Consequences of AI -

AI has (some) innovations, but.

AI will replace (most, not all) computer dependent jobs (that can be) in the future, (easily) in the Millions over time; through automation efficiencies.

AI will take away Tax revenues (from those employees that were replaced) who contribute to consumer spending which will (not if) have a very Negative impact on the U.S. economy.

AI will create (some) high paying jobs, but unless Taxes are Increased on Corporations; and the wealthy; there will (not if) be a Major shortfall in Tax revenue.

The U.S. National debt is (currently) $38.7 Trillion (and rising) per usdebtclock, with $990.0 Billion a year in Interest paid by U.S. taxpayers to outside Investors (U.S. based, Japan; China; etc.) that finance it over time.

Wars are (Always) costly over time (but sometimes necessary to defend U.S. National security), and the U.S. National debt will spike because of it.

These are the facts.

Treasury yields are declining amid signs that U.S. employers are retaining workers. Weekly jobless claims rose to 212,000. This figure was below economists' expectations of 215,000. The 10-year yield fell to 4.039%. The two-year yield also declined to 3.467%.

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-022626/card/treasury-yields-decline-as-u-s-layoffs-remain-elusive-cQ7S9mWF9puLUqEWI92p?modCode=hp_LEDE_C_LC_1&gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfX_YIfuQa5Ca5WG66rFZPUG1GRxm3INy6W67CZxMQh_p4H5zygHiXo&gaa_ts=69a07f82&gaa_sig=6nxh6zbqGCOF--T1eFe4jomaRmICcFXe6MD1Gnl8i161uhSOt64UD1BPzRoxB9FxA5-KB3cb4POt5V7cTR-sEQ%3D%3D

Wall Street is down today because of this speculation about AI's economic effects. It's well worth reading:

https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

everytime I log onto linkedin basically every other post is someone posting something about being laid off and its terrible. if we get a roughly 30 percent unemployment rate like many people think what does that mean for our own jobs

https://www.uri.edu/news/2026/02/r-i-s-economy-has-disappointing-close-to-year-momentum-dissipated-says-uri-economist/

A lot of companies have recently announced layoffs across New York State, from the Hudson Valley all the way to Buffalo. So far in 2026, nearly 3,000 positions have disappeared statewide, signaling a major shift in the labor market.

https://hudsonvalleypost.com/every-new-york-company-planning-2026-layoffs/

Initial unemployment benefit filings decreased in Georgia last week. The U.S. Department of Labor reported this data on Thursday. New jobless claims fell to 4,470 for the week ending January 31. This was a decrease from 4,637 claims the previous week. Nationally, U.S. unemployment claims increased to 231,000 last week.

https://www.augustachronicle.com/story/news/2026/02/07/unemployment-numbers/88526868007/

Arizona's economy currently shows slow job and income growth. Housing affordability remains a challenge, and permits are down. Retail sales, however, have accelerated strongly through September. The state's economic growth is forecast to accelerate next year. Job gains, personal income, and sales are all expected to rise in 2026.

https://azbigmedia.com/business/heres-why-the-arizona-economy-is-poised-to-accelerate/

Initial unemployment claims in Indiana rose last week. The U.S. Department of Labor reported this increase. New jobless claims reached 3,741 for the week ending January 31. This was an increase from 3,186 the previous week.

https://www.southbendtribune.com/story/news/2026/02/08/unemployment-numbers/88526902007/

Initial unemployment claims in Delaware rose last week. The U.S. Department of Labor reported this increase on February 5. New jobless claims in Delaware reached 458 for the week ending January 31. This was an increase from 327 claims the previous week.

• https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/local/2026/02/07/delaware-unemployment-claims-rise-find-out-how-many-were-filed/88526832007/

The earth's resources are limited.

So. nothing is going to grow forever.

So, revenues/profits of no company is going to grow forever.

So, it is better to do profit booking in the stock market.

As I expected. After the recent "pumped and jacked" earnings the stock "popped" but I knew like a balloon in a hole in it it would fritter away. Value trap. Stay away.

Virginia saw an increase in initial unemployment claims last week. The Labor Department released this information. Claims totaled 3,693 for the period ending January 24. This number rose from 2,895 claims reported previously. Nationally, U.S. unemployment claims saw a slight decrease.

https://www.newsleader.com/story/news/2026/01/30/unemployment-numbers/88413664007/

Vermont's initial weekly unemployment claims decreased last week. The Vermont Department of Labor reported 416 new claims for January 24, 2026. These new claims are now at typical seasonal levels. However, total ongoing claims remain high at 4,330. Manufacturing, service, and construction sectors saw shifts in claim percentages.

https://vermontbiz.com/news/2026/january/30/weekly-unemployment-claims-fall-usual-seasonal-levels

North Carolina saw a decline in initial unemployment benefit filings last week. The U.S. Department of Labor reported this data on Thursday. New jobless claims in the state fell to 3,224. This figure is down from 3,930 the previous week. Nationally, U.S. unemployment claims also decreased to 209,000.

https://www.fayobserver.com/story/news/2026/01/31/unemployment-numbers/88413557007

Montana saw a drop in initial unemployment claims last week. The U.S. Department of Labor released this data. Claims fell to 929 for the week ending January 24. This number was down from 1,059 the prior week. National unemployment claims also decreased slightly.

https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2026/01/31/unemployment-numbers/88413498007/

Missouri lawmakers are debating a plan to replace the state income tax. Governor Mike Kehoe's proposal would instead implement increased sales taxes. Voters would decide on this change in November if the bill passes. Supporters believe it will attract businesses and young professionals to Missouri. Critics worry about the financial impact on residents with fixed incomes.

https://www.kctv5.com/2026/01/28/missouri-debates-major-shift-income-tax-sales-tax/

https://www.businessinsider.com/general-strike-ice-protest-minneapolis-2026-1

Layoffs at tech companies like Amazon and Meta are impacting the Seattle region. 2,303 Amazon employees will have their final day with the company starting Monday. Meta plans to lay off 331 workers in March. Reports suggest another 16,000 Amazon job cuts could affect 2,600 more local workers. Experts describe this as the "scariest time economically" for the region since the Great Recession.

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/scariest-time-economically-since-great-recession-layoffs-hit-struggling-seattle-region/6MTQN5XH7NC55INEXAXLUOXOC4/

Seattle’s economy is under heavy pressure as layoffs continue to spread across the region. The scale of the job cuts is being described as the most challenging period since the Great Recession, pointing to widespread instability for workers and businesses alike

Layoffs are anticipated in the Bay Area. Recent economic data appears discouraging. This situation suggests a challenging period. Businesses may soon consider workforce reductions. The overall economic outlook remains uncertain.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/video/news/local/layoffs-loom-discouraging-economic-data/4021928/

Bay Area, California

*S Labor Department Reports Jobless Claims Remain Low at 200,000
by MSN News:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/us-jobless-claims-steady-at-200000-in-sign-of-low-layoffs/ar-AA1UK1Gb

US initial jobless claims rose slightly to 200,000 last week. This figure, for the week ended January 17, indicates a labor market with limited layoffs. The four-week moving average of new applications fell to a two-year low of 201,500. Continuing claims also dropped to 1.85 million, the lowest since November. Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to maintain current interest rates next week.

Arizona's economy is currently growing at a slower-than-usual pace. Job growth remains modest, and housing permit activity has declined this year. Phoenix consumer price inflation has significantly moderated below the national average. Economic growth for Arizona is forecast to accelerate in the coming year. Job and income growth are projected to increase, though housing permits may still decline.

https://azbigmedia.com/business/heres-why-the-arizona-economy-is-poised-to-accelerate/

https://www.journalstandard.com/story/news/2026/01/23/unemployment-numbers/88299794007/

Initial unemployment filings in Illinois decreased last week. The Labor Department reported this data on Thursday. Illinois saw 10,542 new jobless claims by January 17. This number was lower than the 12,733 claims from the previous week. Across the U.S., total claims for unemployment reached 200,000 last week.

Missouri Jobless Claims Fall, Labor Department Reports

Initial filings for unemployment benefits in Missouri decreased last week. The U.S. Department of Labor reported this decline. New jobless claims fell to 4,871 for the week ending January 17. This was a drop from 7,306 claims the previous week. Nationally, U.S. unemployment claims slightly rose to 200,000.

https://www.news-leader.com/story/news/business/2026/01/23/missouri-unemployment-claims-declined-last-week/88299917007/

It seems like there are some disagreements about my previous post on capitalism. Let me explain more, and you don’t have to agree with it — that’s totally fine.

1. In the last post, some of you said there are many welfare abusers in this country. I do agree there are abusers, but that’s only a small percentage of people. If you work at BNY, you are probably not eligible for any type of benefits.

2. The government pays for the benefits, but where do the benefits go? Most of them go to the healthcare industry and food stamps. As we all know, healthcare is notoriously expensive in the US because the priority goal for hospitals is to chase maximum profits. Isn’t this capitalism at its peak?

3. By now, most people would think, “Oh, so you just want communism.” The answer is no. The opposite of capitalism is not communism. We need to fix our current system so that most profits won’t go to the top 1 percent. The benefits that the government spends on people are bananas compared to the taxes that the top 1 percent have avoided.

4. Capitalism chases monopoly. In this country, our food, water, electricity, banks, and healthcare industries are dominated by very few companies. If you really like competition, then how is this a fair game?

5. For most companies, there is only one goal for CEOs — the stock price. When companies make money, most of it goes to executives and stock buybacks. Just use our company as an example: our main business hasn’t grown for years, but the stock price is going up. Why? That’s because the executives cut back our benefits and outsourced. They used the money being saved to buy back stock.

6. We have the most Fortune 500 companies, and yet they only pay 9 percent of all government income taxes. Let that sink in for a moment. Where did all the money go?

7. Let’s take insulin as an example. The price of insulin is 8 to 10 times higher than in other countries, yet the cost to make insulin is extremely low. The same logic can pretty much apply to other industries as well.

Overall, if this is really capitalism, then it’s not functioning very well — at least for 90 percent of Americans.

The (2) contributors for a Major recession when they do (and have) happened during U.S. economic-financial history are Unemployment, and a Major Downturn in consumer spending; currently (70%) of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as shown in the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index).

2025 - Worst year of job growth since 2020, just reported.

2025 - Worst year of layoffs since 2020 (1.17 million), just reported.

2025 - The seven (7) U.S. debt bubbles at the highest level in U.S. history with (all of them) at (record) levels, just reported.

The (7) Debt bubbles - Household spending, mortgage loans; credit card debt, automotive loans; student loans, stock purchase financing; and finally the U.S. National debt.

The U.S. National debt (currently) is at $38.6 Trillion (and rising) with Interest paid per year by U.S. taxpayers at $968.0 Billion to outside Investors who finance it per usdebtclock.

Currently (skewed) U.S. GDP (positive data) is from AI corporate infrastructure spending, and higher income household spending.

Both of those things will (not if) revert Downwards over time impacting U.S. GDP negatively.

Note - The stock market, and U.S. economy are (not) the same thing.

It is called Divergence that (currently) exists between them (for now).

The (2) contributors for a Major recession when they do (and have) happened during U.S. economic-financial history are Unemployment, and a Major Downturn in consumer spending; currently (70%) of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as shown in the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index).

2025 - Worst year of job growth since 2020, just reported.

2025 - Worst year of layoffs since 2020 (1.17 million), just reported.

2025 - The seven (7) U.S. debt bubbles at the highest level in U.S. history with (all of them) at (record) levels, just reported.

The (7) Debt bubbles - Household spending, mortgage loans; credit card debt, automotive loans; student loans, stock purchase financing; and finally the U.S. National debt.

The U.S. National debt (currently) is at $38.6 Trillion (and rising) with Interest paid per year by U.S. taxpayers at $968.0 Billion to outside Investors who finance it per usdebtclock.

Currently (skewed) U.S. GDP (positive data) is from AI corporate infrastructure spending, and higher income household spending.

Both of those things will (not if) revert Downwards over time impacting U.S. GDP negatively.

Note - The stock market, and U.S. economy are (not) the same thing.

It is called Divergence that (currently) exists between them (for now).

It amazes me that (some) employees at Charles Schwab do (not) even understand basic U.S. economics -

The (2) contributors for a Major recession when they do (and have) happened during U.S. economic-financial history are Unemployment, and a Major Downturn in consumer spending; currently (70%) of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as shown in the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index).

2025 - Worst year of job growth since 2020, just reported.

2025 - Worst year of layoffs since 2020 (1.17 million), just reported.

2025 - The seven (7) U.S. debt bubbles at the highest level in U.S. history with (all of them) at (record) levels, just reported.

The (7) Debt bubbles - Household spending, mortgage loans; credit card debt, automotive loans; student loans, stock purchase financing; and finally the U.S. National debt.

The U.S. National debt (currently) is at $38.6 Trillion (and rising) with Interest paid per year by U.S. taxpayers at $968.0 Billion to outside Investors who finance it per usdebtclock.

Currently (skewed) U.S. GDP (positive data) is from AI corporate infrastructure spending, and higher income household spending.

Both of those things will (not if) revert Downwards over time impacting U.S. GDP negatively.

Note - The stock market, and U.S. economy are (not) the same thing.

It is called Divergence that (currently) exists between them (for now).

A number of industries relying on in-person interaction and customers have faced steep declines in employment, a new U.S. Census Bureau report has found.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-industries-that-have-suffered-worst-job-losses-11296028

U.S. Government needs the (future) Tax revenue from (New children) born in the U.S.

Since households are having less children over time.

In 2025, it was 1.6 children per household.

1946 - 1964 - Baby boomer generation it was 3.6 children per household.

Inflation expenses.

More than a million Americans have lost jobs in 2025 as the labor market continues to show signs of weakness, including many staying unemployed for longer.

https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-layoff-lost-job-labor-market-holiday-worker-reduction-weak-economy/601548165

I am reminded that we each have a little Karl Marx in us. For someone who is far from a Marx fan, let alone apologist, something inside kinda understands his view point.

How could I not in a world where there will soon be a trillionaire, and we are hearing news that the economy grew 4.3% in a country where months even years go on without adequate employment. For some, being unemployed in a so called best country in the world is hard to grasp, especially if you are able bodied, and willing and want to work.

If you are in precarious situation like so many, where variables that allow for adequate employment such as skills, right training/education, and employers willing to add to their personnel are lacking, news that GDP and the economy growing appear to be a mirage.

This is not whining, but rather a desperate realization that this is the new reality setting in. For so many we have to contend with the fact that sitting in an office, engaging in PI planning sessions, sizing stories, pushing code through production is going to be a thing of the past.

The hiring in today's job environment is happening in areas that people in third world countries would laugh at. I'm talking about jobs that would barely help you pay your mortgage. Jobs that sooner or later will have you dip into your retirement accounts out of desperation because savings have eroded.

I wonder if Karl Marx knew how to count to one trillion. Because as the great book says, those who have abundance will have abundance aplenty, and those who have no two pennies to rub together will continue to have nothing. So many of us are in this last group.

I’m beyond burnt out. I literally can’t stand coming to work anymore. Three years here have felt like ten at other companies in terms of exhaustion, energy drain, toxicity, and the headspin from constant gaslighting. I just can’t do it anymore. I’d rather risk being jobless than keep going. I just hope they pick me for layoffs. If not, I’ll quit. Hats off to the veterans - how have you endured here for so long and stayed sane?

Tennessee is projected to see more than 8,500 layoffs in 2025, nearly a 19% increase compared to 2024. The forecast points to a growing trend of job cuts statewide, without naming any specific companies. Instead, it highlights a broader impact on Tennessee’s employment landscape.

https://fox17.com/news/local/more-than-8500-layoffs-hit-tennessee-in-2025-nearly-19-percent-increase-from-2024-davidson-maury-putnam-williamson-wilson-county-warn-notices-department-labor-workforce-development-economy-tariffs

Layoffs in North Texas are projected to exceed 10,000 individuals by 2025. This substantial figure represents a regional total across various sectors, rather than a single affected company. The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) area is the primary region experiencing these job reductions. Despite the high number of job cuts, economic experts assert that the DFW economy remains robust and strong. The impact of these layoffs is therefore distributed across the broader North Texas metropolitan area.

https://www.keranews.org/business-economy/2025-12-12/north-texas-layoffs-top-10-000-in-2025-but-experts-say-dfws-economy-remains-strong

The emperor's new clothes? Nope. The emperor's new car. Enough with the hype already when it comes to EVs amongst other things. Needs and wants. And fools. A fool and his money are soon parted? Nope. They are "always" parted. Depreciation for the sake of newness is a wonderful investment? I have a dime to sell you for a dollar. Why the weird look? It's a very special dime. It is a new dime. Now where did I put that 5 dollar bill. It's a special one. I will sell it to you for a thousand dollars. Not everyone can afford that. That makes you special. Oh look! I have a one hundred dollar bill. It's a very special one!