#economy

The global economy now uses roughly half as much energy per dollar of output as it did in 1980, helping cushion oil shocks.

Read more in F&D magazine.

https://www.imf.org/.../2026/06/picture-this-shock-absorbers

Oil prices have risen sharply with the latest war in the Middle East, reviving memories of the 1970s. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about a quarter of seaborne oil trade, represents a major global supply shock. The damage will depend largely on how long the disruption lasts. Oil markets were well supplied heading into the disruption, strategic stock releases added barrels, and buoyant financial markets helped limit broader tightening in financial conditions.

Beyond these immediate buffers, two structural factors have also cushioned the blow. First, the world economy is far more energy efficient than it was 50 years ago. Each dollar of output now requires roughly half as much energy as it did in 1980.

Second, the energy system is more diversified. Oil’s share of the mix has fallen from about half in 1973 to less than a third today. Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, but it no longer dominates.

Even so, these cushions do not protect countries from pain evenly. Ultimately, the severity of the shock at the country level depends on two things: how much oil an economy imports and how much policy space its government has to respond. More than 80 percent of countries are net oil importers, and the most vulnerable entered this episode with limited room in public budgets to shield households and businesses. That is why the same global shock can become a much harsher national one where import dependence is high and policy space is thin.

Weekly jobless claims decreased last week. The weekly total dropped to 215,000. This figure was below analyst expectations. Job cuts remained minimal amid economic concerns. The national job market shows resilience.

https://www.wral.com/news/ap/6c38e-us-jobless-aid-filings-fall-to-215-000-last-week-as-layoffs-remain-low-despite-economic-headwinds/

Washington's unemployment rate held steady at 5.2% in May. The state economy added 10,600 jobs during the month. This represented the largest one-month gain this year. However, the unemployment rate was 4.5% in May 2025. Overall jobs decreased by 0.2% since that time.

https://www.kuow.org/stories/wa-employers-added-jobs-in-may-but-unemployment-rate-stayed-stuck-at-5-2

• Job openings jumped to 7.6 million in April, the highest level since May 2024.
• Hiring fell sharply despite increased demand, reflecting a slow-moving labor market.
• Layoffs and quits declined, indicating both employers and workers are making fewer moves.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/02/job-openings-april-2026.html

Arizona experienced eased layoff notices in May. This easing was slight. It followed an April surge in notices. The trend aligns with a state jobs report. That report indicated unemployment stabilizing.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/jobs/2026/06/02/honeywell-4-arizona-employers-mass-layoffs-may-2026/90355530007/

US job vacancies showed a notable increase in April. The number of available roles climbed to 7.62 million. Job separations decreased to 1.69 million. This suggests a robust labor market. A single sector, professional services, drove most of this rise.

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/jun/02/us-job-openings-jump-to-nearly-two-year-high-as-la/

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/top-ceos-brace-downturn-warn-us-economy-worsen-in-next-6-months#:~:text=Only%2015%25%20of%20CEOs%20say,felt%20that%20way%20last%20quarter.

Not shocking however predictions show more layoffs across the economy and that is really not good for anyone regardless. Salaries likely not going up much either.

America's New Car Market Just Lost 1 Million Buyers, And It's Getting Worse

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/americas-car-market-just-lost-144500628.html

Wisconsin's job market is experiencing a cooling trend. This mirrors a national deceleration in economic growth. New graduates face challenges finding work, though openings exist. AI's long-term impact on job substitution remains unclear. Healthcare and construction show growth, and retirements create many opportunities.

Wisconsin

https://pbswisconsin.org/news-item/scott-hodek-on-wisconsins-job-market-layoffs-and-ais-role/

Americans filed 215,000 initial jobless claims last week. This represented a 5,000 increase from the prior week. Economists had predicted 211,000 claims. Layoffs remained low despite ongoing economic uncertainties. Continuing unemployment benefits recipients also increased by 15,000.

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-marginally-amid-low-layoffs-2026-05-28/

I know the obvious answer is because of who the POTUS is. But how does the market continue to rise despite unemployment likely to hit 30-40 percent by Q1 2027

If you factor in actual inflation, rather than the numbers the government reports, wages are falling rapidly.

And both political parties share the blame. We have an uniparty anyway.

Have you looked at the price of a new car lately? Or a refrigerator? Or even steak?

Everyone is watching the layoffs but only some are paying attention to the real issue -hiring has slowed dramatically...

The headlines make it sound like AI is eliminating jobs overnight. The actual labor data tells a more tricky story. Layoffs are still relatively close to pre-pandemic norms. What has changed is that companies are hiring less aggressively, which makes it much harder for people entering the market, changing jobs, or recovering from layoffs.

There is also a growing amount of what even industry leaders are calling “AI washing” - companies attributing cuts to AI when the underlying causes may include overhiring, cost pressure, restructuring, or shareholder expectations.

That does not mean AI is not changing work. It clearly is. But the broader employment picture right now looks more like a low-hire, low-fire environment than a mass AI replacement event.

The practical takeaway for companies and employees is probably this: focus less on the headline layoffs and more on adaptability, skill alignment, and where actual hiring demand still exists.

Source: Washington Post article on the current labor market and AI-related layoffs.
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/what-layoffs-hide-about-the-real-problem-with-the-job-market-105409943.html

I keep waiting for the other economic shoe to drop...

Important points in summary. Link to full article at end.
"Strategic petroleum reserves have been released, commercial inventories have been drawn down."
In plain terms, the world has been living off its emergency stockpiles." "And even after the Strait reopens, he cautioned against expecting an immediate return to normal.
Ships need to be repositioned, and a backlog of cargoes needs to be worked through the system.
Transit times add days or weeks to the time before the product actually reaches consumers.
'We're thinking there's going to be a 1- to 2-month time lag between the Strait opening up and the market seeing normal flow,' Woods said."
** "Beyond that, governments and buyers that have drawn down reserves will need to restock."

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-ceo-delivers-blunt-message-171700095.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=YW5kcm9pZC1hcHA6Ly9jb20uZ29vZ2xlLmFuZHJvaWQuZ29vZ2xlcXVpY2tzZWFyY2hib3gv&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJW9Mbl8zOro2hAcbaqvhG_qkfO-dIcOcukIRrgwuT2n_RZNCb9aoEzLm0WATYTmh9YdbRFySH7bCriqyBkUdXU02e6M73w0FZNocWTtupHG6wP_AMzfOuROG7LYRnloKBGsMNhzXepJg2mJWNdcAR0yr21csNMyv6k_yeiB6hq_

The New York Fed reports AI is not the main cause of the current hiring slowdown. Elevated interest rates and past overhiring play a major role. The Fed's analysis shows broad labor weakness, not automation, explains the trend. Most firms adopting AI are retraining workers, not initiating layoffs. Startups should focus on capital costs and macroeconomic pressures over AI fears.

https://startupfortune.com/new-york-fed-data-says-ai-is-not-driving-the-hiring-slowdown/

Several U.S. states are experiencing increased unemployment. This trend occurs despite national economic resilience. Layoffs, slower hiring, and economic uncertainty contribute to the issue. Technology, manufacturing, and tourism sectors are particularly affected. California, New York, and Florida are among the impacted states.

https://www.mibolsillo.co/unemployment-is-rising-in-these-10-states--is-the-u.s.-job-market-starting-to-slow-down-t202605160034.html

Byron Allen recently discussed layoffs within his media division. He described these workforce reductions as "thoughtful" and "humane." Allen attributed the changes to shifts in the broader media business. He stated the economy improved, offering new jobs for those let go. Allen Media Group also sold several local TV stations last year.

https://thedesk.net/2026/05/byron-allen-comments-about-layoffs/

London, Ontario, now has Canada's highest unemployment rate. The region lost approximately 1,800 jobs in April. Nationally, Canada unexpectedly lost 17,700 jobs last month. Full-time positions decreased by over 46,000 nationwide. Economists view London's crisis as a warning for Canada's industrial economy.

https://easternherald.com/2026/05/10/canada-jobs-crisis-ontario-unemployment-surges/

Canada's economy lost 18,000 jobs in April. The national unemployment rate rose to 6.9 percent. This marks a six-month high for joblessness. Full-time employment saw a net decline of 46,700 positions. The labor market continues to show signs of weakness.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-april-2026-9.7192292

NIKE IS DONE!!!
WE 3 BAD CEOS MP JD EH
AND WITH BAD ECONOMY, I THINK THAT MOST CONSUMERS ARE CHANGIN THEIR TASTE.
MOST YOUNG PEOPLE ARE BROKE AND THERE IS NO YOUNG CUSTOMER BEING CONVERTED TO NIKE CREEDO.

DEAD AND BURIED!!!

These past few years have been a wild ride, and this place has gone so far downhill that I can't even work up anxiety about being laid off anymore. Sure, I'm vaguely worried as the job market is brutal, and the economy is shaky, but I don't have the energy or the attachment to this job to really panic.

Texas added nearly 47,000 nonfarm jobs in March. This marked a reversal from February's job losses. Mining, logging, and professional services saw notable gains. The state's unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. This trend mirrored national job market improvements.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/economy/article/texas-adds-jobs-march-bleak-february-22236672.php

Remember when you'd apply and actually hear back? Not anymore. Now all I get is silence. And most of the jobs on LinkedIn aren't even real. They're phantom postings that go nowhere. The only way I see people actually getting hired is through networking. Someone knows someone who knows someone. That's it. The economy is really bad and the old methods don't work anymore.

Weekly requests for unemployment aid dropped. The number decreased by 11,000 to 207,000. This figure remains consistent with recent years. The labor market shows a "low-hire, low-fire" trend. High inflation and elevated gas prices persist.

https://www.kaaltv.com/ap-top-news/ap-top-news-business/us-jobless-claims-fall-last-week-as-layoffs-remain-low-despite-global-economic-uncertainty/

Governor Tina Kotek formed the Oregon Prosperity Council to address the state's sluggish economy. The 16-member council is tasked with developing policy recommendations. Two labor-affiliated members recently released a report advocating a "high road" approach to growth. This report contrasts with business groups pushing for tax breaks and deregulation. The council is expected to deliver its final recommendations by June 30.

Oregon

https://www.opb.org/article/2026/04/16/oregon-economy-prosperity-council-kotek/

Emporia's jobless rate remained steady at 5.6 percent. This rate covers the period between January and February. Lyon County's unemployment rate slightly increased to 5.4 percent. These figures do not yet reflect recent company layoffs. The statewide jobless rate also held steady at 3.9 percent.

Emporia, Kansas

https://kvoe.com/2026/04/17/emporia-jobless-rate-holds-steady-between-january-and-february/

Midland's labor market remained consistent in February. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.3%. This rate was the lowest among all Texas metropolitan areas. No mass layoff notices were reported for the region. Midland added 400 nonfarm jobs during the month.

https://www.mrt.com/news/article/midland-tx-unemployment-rate-february-22212518.php

Illinois experienced only slight job growth last year. Its unemployment rate remained among the highest nationwide. In January, 319,000 Illinoisans sought work without success. The state added 7,900 jobs from January 2025 to January 2026. This 0.13% increase was below the national average.

Illinois

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-posted-slow-job-growth-last-year/

Since everyone been saying its all doom and gloom

Would there even be a Walmart without China?

There are a lot of pre-cursors (building over time) to the "Roaring 1920's ending" October 1929, the "Internet bubble burst" March 2000; and the "Global Financial Crisis" September 2008.
Fed stimulus will (most likely) end by mid-April (with Higher Energy costs impacting their positive effects on the U.S. economy) with the U.S. Treasury (also) stopping its' purchasing of its' own bonds by then.

Tax refunds were substantial overall for 2025, but again as mentioned; Energy prices will remain high (for months, or longer) especially with the most recent escalation of the U.S. Iran War.

The Fed has also printed an additional $125.0 Billion in currency since January 2026 (in an attempt) to prop-up the U.S. economic-financial system.

Yes, this does add on to the (current) $39.1 Trillion U.S. National debt (and rising), as does; the U.S. Iran War; and contributes to (rising) Inflation costs as well (over time).

The (Real) U.S. economy heading into 2027 is what to watch.

Current trends dictate strain on the U.S. economic-financial system with layoffs (2026 > 2027) increasing over time.

An economy that rewards hard work and loyalty with more hard work and no economic gain is insane.

No surprise there. I've been trying to make a job switch for months. The job market right now is as bad as I've ever seen it. What does that tell you?

U.S. Iran War -

• Israel struck earlier today.

  This is after the "Ceasefire".

• The U.S. Iran War is (far from over due to the ongoing hostilities between Israel-Iran).

  At 1:00pm CST (today), Iranian drones struck the Saudi Arabian East-West pipeline.

• Reported by oilprice, this (was) the (7-million barrel a day go around) for the Hormuz Strait (which is now essentially closed).

U.S. Economy - LEI - Leading Economic Index (Chart).

Oil Prices are (not) coming down, anytime soon; and it will weigh on the U.S. economy; and consumer spending (70.0% of GDP).

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/economy/policy/articles/doritos-prices-jumped-50-four-200242097.html

Arizona's job market remains under pressure. The state shed 19,400 jobs over the past year. Its unemployment rate reached 4.5% in January. This figure surpassed the national rate of 4.3%. It is the first time Arizona's rate exceeded the national average in 30 months.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/jobs/2026/04/07/arizona-unemployment-tops-us-average-mass-layoffs-march/89485208007/

Layoffs are increasing in North Carolina. This trend is for the year 2026. State-reported data confirms the rise. Layoffs are ticking up compared to last year. Specific company details are not provided.

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2026/04/07/epic-games-wells-fargo-therm-fisher-layoffs.html

Remember when oil execs gave DT $1B… was that in exchange for this war?

Oil booming again following that weird rambling, low energy, slurred speech last night.

So much nonsense from our fearless leader. Economy- great! Employment-great! We are making sure that these plebs are sitting on sidelines and begging for giveaways. We are national bank, mentioning California big no-no. This is making normal person”s blood boiled. Such a disgrace.

You cannot tweet you way out of 23% of world oil, 48% nat gas, and 4.5/5.0% 10 yr bond rate.