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Will Enterprise Software Stay Sticky in an AI World?

https://www.nerdoutonbusiness.com/p/will-enterprise-software-stay-sticky-in-an-ai-world

OpenText is a useful case study for this question. The company runs on long-term contracts and deep switching costs, but AI is making it easier for companies to build internal tools.

The business is built on recurring revenue, with ~81% of FY2025 revenue coming from cloud subscriptions and customer support contracts.

Will their 94% renewal rate hold up?

I think the answer is no. Customers are constantly upgrading and given all of OpenText’s products are long in the tooth and the AI tools are unproven (without customer references) renewal rates will go down and the focus will be on organic growth which is an impossible task given the lack of innovation.

If the SMB unit is sold, the SMB Renewal Teams: Likely transferred to the buyer. These teams are high-volume and automated, making them an attractive "turnkey" operations piece for a Private Equity firm.
• Legacy Enterprise Renewals: Would remain at OpenText but continue to face the AI-driven workforce reductions.

If the "20% divestiture" goal is met by selling the SMB unit, these are the rumored frontrunners:
• Thoma Bravo: Rumored to be looking at Carbonite to fold into their ConnectWise or Sophos portfolios.
• Kaseya: Known for aggressive acquisitions in the MSP space, they are frequently mentioned as a potential home for Webroot's threat intelligence data.
• Gen Digital (Norton/LifeLock/Avast): Since OpenText has refocused Webroot on "Digital Life Protection" for families, it has become a "strategic fit" for Gen's consumer-focused empire.

In regards to a new CEO The board is looking for an "Operator" rather than a "Visionary Dealmaker." They want someone who can make the remaining "Core" business highly profitable after the non-core units (like SMB) are potentially sold off.

However this “Operator” will be in charge of getting all of OpenText remaining core acquired by a big tech company that can do something with the IP.


Sapiens layoffs

Employees describe shock, demotions, and a rapid overhaul following Advent’s $2.5 billion takeover.

“Sapiens was a very family-friendly and pleasant company for many years. CEO Roni Al-Dor was a people person. Employees went through fire and water with him, which is why everyone is so surprised now, and deeply hurt,” says one employee.

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/r1illfbebg


Foundry has potentially landed a guppy.

We won't know if the guppy will lay eggs and populate the tank until 2027.

There is a chance the guppy will bring in its bigger brother, the whale.

Even if it works out, let's see if the higher US production costs scare away the whale.

Don't sc--w it up!

Or is this just a political donation?

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/intel-moves-closer-to-building-apples-entry-level-m-series-chips-on-18a


Bd workers have protection against waters takeover

TUPE a legal framework in the UK and Ireland that protects employees' rights when their business or part of a business is transferred to a new owner (like in a merger, acquisition, or outsourcing). It ensures employees automatically move to the new employer with their existing terms, conditions, and continuity of service, preventing dismissal just because of the transfer and maintaining their benefits.


Will the company get bought out? Saw this posted on LinkedIn by a financial advisor

This has all of the signs of getting primed to find a buyer. Shed thousands upon thousands of highly compensated employees with 20+ years of tenure. No rhyme or reason to the ones chosen other than they are too costly to the bottom line. Not looking at the individual persons to see what value they bring to the organization; just treating them as nothing more than a line item on a spreadsheet. Welcome to the new Corporate America. Shareholders are the most important people; no longer the customer (internal or external).
Remember when they used to say "our employees are our greatest asset." Well, they don't say that anymore. They finally realized people are not assets, because they don't own them. People are free to take their talents elsewhere. You also don't layoff assets. People should never be treated like tangible objects.
After the 13K depart, try and make sense of a wounded and abandoned organization that's left with huge holes. Good luck to the ones that are left behind to clean up the mess. Try and pick up the pieces and keep your head above water until you can find the right buyer.
Your largest expense is employee payroll. Shed as much as you possibly can to attract the right buyer.
Just my two cents (pun intended).


"Tim Apple" Buys 50,000 Shares of Nike Stock

Tim Cook, CEO of Apple and Nike Board of Directors member, just purchased 50,000 shares of Nike stock at the current price, costing him $2.9+ million.

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/4086202/nike-nke-director-tim-cook-acquires-295m-in-company-shares

Is this a vote of confidence in the company's future or a PR move?

Tim Cook has a reported net worth of $2.6 billion, so dropping a couple million on some Nike stock is spending couch cushion money for him.


Dans PayPal-Honey Conspiracy?

Don’t know if anyone has seen the videos but there’s a big potential criminal case forming against PayPal and their subsidiary honey for multiple charges in more than 20+ class action lawsuits. Honey was acquired by PayPal in 2019/2020 for $4 billion when Schulman was still CEO. Investigative journalists have brought to light dirt on both sides primarily due to Honeys practices which now trickle under the PayPal umbrella/leadership.

Do you think this potentially is the reason some higher ups at PayPal are getting a free ticket out and coming here in case any action gets taken against PayPal? Does this question the new leadership at VZ?


Advancing the transition to a media and content delivery company

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oracles-larry-ellison-agrees-to-backstop-404-billion-in-financing-for-paramount-acquisition-of-warner-bros-145133265.html

Larry Ellison, the centibillionaire founder and executive chairman of Oracle (ORCL), agreed to personally backstop $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount's proposed acquisition of Warner Bros.

Diversification away from a stodgy old tech company to more influential properties is the order of the day.


Five9 being sold soon

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288847/000128884725000177/fivn-20250729.htm

Now sale will only need to be approved by a implement majority, not 2/3rds that doomed Zoom’s $15B takeover bid

Removal of Supermajority Vote Threshold
Since its initial public offering, the Company has maintained a voting threshold in its Certificate of Incorporation of at least sixty-six and two-thirds percent (66 2/3%) in voting power of the stock of the Company for (i) amendments, alternations, changes or repeals, or adopting provisions inconsistent with, certain sections of the Company’s Certificate of Incorporation, and (ii) amendments, alterations, changes or repeals of the Company’s Bylaws (the “Supermajority Vote Threshold”). While the Board believes that the Company’s stockholders have benefited from having the Supermajority Vote Threshold, the Board determined on July 29, 2025 that it is advisable and in the best interests of the Company and its stockholders to remove the Supermajority Vote Threshold.
The Board intends to approve and recommend to the Company’s stockholders at the 2026 Annual Meeting an amendment to the Company’s Certificate of Incorporation to replace the Supermajority Vote Threshold with a majority vote threshold, effective at the conclusion of the 2027 Annual Meeting.


Huntington Acquisition Triggers Cadence Bank Job Cuts

Layoff notices are being issued to Cadence Bank staff. The job reductions stem from Huntington Bank's recent acquisition. Huntington Bank described the cuts as part of a merger integration. Huntington pledged to maintain operations in Tupelo, Mississippi. More job reductions are anticipated, though Huntington aims to restore positions by 2028.

https://www.djournal.com/news/business/cadence-bank-layoffs-begin-company-maintains-it-is-committed-to-tupelo/article_05b780fe-6373-4bb7-a31e-c9da3b8be5f3.html


Why Oracle taking massive loans building Ai infrastructure for Open Ai? is Open Ai making massive profits to pay off?

They haven't found a way to profit off of AI yet, given the costs. And it's a massive risk.
Remember blockchain, NFTs, and the Metaverse / VR? All giant fails.
Now, LLMs have obviously more practical / actual use cases. But they have plenty of flaws and it's not guaranteed those can all be addressed and it can be converted into a profitable, effective product.


Railroading

Where in the strategy of the Lexmark acquisition was there the action to railroad Xerox completely. Xerox is far from perfect (and Lexmark is far from perfect as well. They did lose £600M last year) BUT Xerox does have a heritage, does know some stuff and has done some good stuff and yet Lex are railroading every decision - ignoring Xerox people, no regard for any Xerox experience and ignoring everything that has ever been done. Why don’t the EC just pay off Xerox people and leave the apparently-Lexmark-wonders to manage it all?


If anyone needs some good news today…

Warner Bros Discovery has urged shareholders to reject a $108.4bn hostile takeover offer from Paramount Skydance, branding it “inadequate” amid an extraordinary corporate battle to control the legacy media conglomerate.

In a blunt letter to shareholders on Wednesday morning, WBD accused Paramount of having “consistently misled” investors by claiming its bid has a “full backstop” – a safety net to ensure it has sufficient funds – from the Ellisons.

Paramount did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“Following a careful evaluation of Paramount’s recently launched tender offer, the Board concluded that the offer’s value is inadequate, with significant risks and costs imposed on our shareholders,” Samuel A Di Piazza Jr, chairman of WBD’s board, said in a statement. “This offer once again fails to address key concerns that we have consistently communicated to Paramount throughout our extensive engagement and review of their six previous proposals.

“We are confident that our merger with Netflix represents superior, more certain value for our shareholders and we look forward to delivering on the compelling benefits of our combination.”

Source: The Guardian


Verizon Communications, Inc. + Frontier Telecommunications (NOT the low budget airlines)

Yes, Verizon is in the process of acquiring Frontier Communications in a major $20 billion deal announced in September 2024, with the goal of integrating Frontier's significant fiber network to expand Verizon's broadband offerings nationwide, and the acquisition has received regulatory approval (like from the FCC and state PUCs) with an expected closing by early next month. This acquisition combines Frontier's pure-play fiber assets with Verizon's wireless and existing fiber (Fios) services, aiming to create a stronger, combined broadband and mobile provider.


iRobot co-founder says FTC's opposition to Amazon deal was 'wrong-minded' following bankruptcy filing

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/irobot-co-founder-says-ftcs-opposition-amazon-deal-wrong-minded-following-bankruptcy-filing

The bankruptcy filing follows the termination of iRobot's proposed $1.4 billion acquisition by Amazon, which was abandoned in January 2024 amid a probe by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) – led by Lina Khan – and European regulators. The FTC's antitrust investigation was focused on Amazon's ability to favor its own products over its rivals.

iRobot co-founder and former CEO Colin Angle told FOX Business in an interview that the FTC's decision to oppose the merger struck him as "wrong-minded" and harmful in retrospect.

"I bet if you asked almost anyone prior to the blocking of the deal with iRobot: Would you rather see iRobot innovating like crazy, coming out with new and better robots for your home, or would you like to see it file for Chapter 11 in the process of being sold to a Chinese manufacturer?" he said. "The wrong thing probably happened."


Soooo d-mb…go ahead and spin this

So we buy WB, for $80b, sell for $40b, then watch a bidding war for it as it gets resold? Thats what you people call a genius leader. Board won’t do anything cause it’s filled with other flunkies who weren’t popular with the worker bees. If you have to tell me how great you are….you’re probably not very good at what you do.


End Game

Netflix and the Hollywood End Game
Monday, December 8, 2025


Warner Bros. started with distribution. Just after the turn of the twentieth century, Harry, Albert, Sam, and Jack Warner bought a second hand projector and began showing short films in mining towns across Ohio and Pennsylvania. In 1907 they purchased their first permanent theater in New Castle, Pennsylvania. Around the same time, they began distributing films to other theaters, and by 1908 they were producing their own movies in California. In 1923 the brothers formally incorporated as Warner Bros. Pictures, Inc., becoming one of the five major Hollywood studios.

What the brothers realized early on was that distribution was not a particularly good business. You had to maintain the theater, source films to show, and your profit was capped by seating capacity, which you had to work constantly to fill. Every empty seat represented revenue lost forever. Producing films, on the other hand, was far more lucrative. A movie could be made once and monetized repeatedly.

In this sense, Hollywood was the tech industry before there was a tech industry. Studios invested heavily upfront in assets that could be leveraged again and again. While Warner Bros. and its peers did at times own large theater chains as part of vertically integrated businesses, the 1948 Paramount decrees forced a breakup. The theaters were spun out because content creation was simply the better business.

That business improved over time. Television created expansive new licensing opportunities for films and later TV shows. Homes had more televisions than cities had theaters, and access was constant. Home video added another window, allowing movies to generate revenue through rentals and sales. The largest windfall came from the cable bundle, where roughly 90 percent of households paid increasing monthly fees for access to vast amounts of content they mostly did not watch. Hollywood revenue became a de facto annuity.


Internet Distribution and Aggregation

Netflix, founded in 1997, also began with distribution, specifically DVDs by mail. Its streaming service launched in 2007, exactly 100 years after the Warner brothers bought their first theater. The differences were fundamental. Internet distribution meant Netflix was available everywhere, with no physical infrastructure to maintain. Every additional customer carried near zero marginal cost, and the potential market was theoretically the entire world.

Over time, Netflix, like Warner Bros. before it, backward integrated into content production. Unlike traditional studios, however, Netflix’s content production has always existed solely to serve its distribution. Netflix understood something Hollywood was slow to grasp. On the Internet, distribution is even more scalable than content.

This is not immediately obvious. Content is scarce and exclusive, while Internet access is universal. Yet universal access creates an abundance of content far beyond what anyone can consume. This shifts power to Aggregators that organize content on behalf of users, delivering a satisfying experience. Consumers flock to the Aggregator, suppliers follow, content increases, and the cycle reinforces itself. Over time, the largest Aggregators gain overwhelming advantages in customer acquisition and churn reduction. That is the true source of their economic power.

Hollywood studios learned this lesson painfully over the past decade. As Netflix grew and commanded a superior stock multiple despite producing what many considered inferior content, studios believed they could win by leveraging their content libraries. Content was king in a world constrained by physical distribution. On the Internet, customer acquisition and retention in a world of infinite alternatives matter more. That was Netflix’s advantage, and it has only grown.


## Netflix Buys Warner Bros.

On Friday, Netflix announced it would acquire Warner Bros. for $72 billion. The deal follows Warner Bros. Discovery’s plan to split its studios and HBO Max from its cable networks. The transaction values Warner Discovery shares at $27.75, with an enterprise value of approximately $82.7 billion.

Paramount had submitted a $30 per share all cash bid for the entire Warner Bros. Discovery business, including cable networks. Netflix, by contrast, is acquiring only the Warner Bros. studio assets. Reports suggest the remaining business is being valued at roughly $5 per share, implying Netflix effectively outbid Paramount.

It is also worth noting the asymmetry in resources. Paramount’s bid would not have been supported by its operating business, which is valued around $14 billion, but by the personal wealth of David Ellison’s family. Netflix, meanwhile, is valued at approximately $425 billion and generated $9 billion in cash flow over the past year. This was not a fair fight.

This outcome aligns with a scenario outlined in 2016, where Netflix was positioned not as another cable channel, but as a dominant Aggregator with power over suppliers. Netflix’s superior viewing experience drove user acquisition. Its user base attracted suppliers, which improved its offerings, which attracted more users. In the most optimistic outcome, Netflix would become the only TV service consumers need.

One obvious path would have been Netflix becoming the primary buyer for Hollywood suppliers, as seen in its relationship with Sony. However, several developments may have pushed Netflix toward outright ownership.

In 2019, Netflix launched Formula 1: Drive to Survive. The show dramatically increased the value of Formula 1 media rights, yet Netflix captured none of that upside. In 2023, NBCUniversal licensed Suits to Netflix, turning a dormant library show into a streaming phenomenon and revealing Netflix’s ability to dramatically increase IP value. In 2025, KPop Demon Hunters became a global hit, largely enabled by Netflix’s algorithmic distribution.

Great content still needs distribution and effortless access to prove its worth. KPop Demon Hunters succeeded on merit, but only because those merits were accessible on the world’s largest streaming service.

Netflix executives appear to have concluded that licensing leaves money on the table. If Netflix can uniquely increase IP value, owning that IP becomes the logical step. Forcing consolidation in Hollywood and removing a rival streamer in the process only strengthens the case, despite the risks and high price.


## Netflix’s Market and Threat

The removal of a rival streamer raises regulatory scrutiny. Media mergers receive intense oversight, and this deal will be no exception. President Trump publicly noted concerns about market share, signaling a lengthy Justice Department review.

This deal differs from past cases. It is partly vertical, with a distributor acquiring a supplier, which is typically approved. However, Netflix is likely to make Warner Bros. content exclusive over time, sacrificing short term licensing revenue for long term pricing power.

It is also partly horizontal, as Netflix is effectively acquiring and shutting down a competing streaming service. Horizontal mergers receive greater scrutiny because they reduce competition. Netflix may argue that HBO Max customers largely overlap with Netflix subscribers, and that consumers benefit by paying for fewer services in the short term.

Ultimately, the case hinges on market definition. If defined narrowly as subscription streaming, Netflix faces challenges. If defined as TV viewing broadly, including linear TV and YouTube, Netflix’s share is far smaller, and its primary threat becomes clear.

That threat is YouTube. YouTube dominates consumer time spent, including on TVs, and does so with content acquired for free. It will always have more new content than any professional studio.

Professionally produced content’s advantage lies in longevity and rewatchability. Libraries matter. Netflix’s ability to make library content more valuable explains why it may be initiating Hollywood’s end game now. The true threat to Hollywood is not just free distribution, but the fact that anyone can now create content, and that reality is already winning in the market.