#forecast

If you are in sales, it’s clear that this year has been one of the more challenging years.

As most of you know, sales journal is a fictitious number that is used for compensation only. It’s a number that is scalable to increase/decrease compensation. For example, Canon showed profits of 200% because they were able to raise quotas and pay out less compensation. It’s not because we were more profitable on deals. Print volumes are down so where do you think they took the money from? Yeah, let that sink in.

The one number though that will provide some real factual direction though is the billed revenue numbers. Central (with that layup PK gave to his friends) and West (another joke of a quota given to people who stop work at 2:00pm EST) have now dipped under 80%. The East (the FU quota) is just over 80% at 81%. These are the lowest numbers (not counting Covid) that the company has seen in a long time. This just shows they are completely off on their forecasts versus reality.

So what does this all mean. It means that we are not making enough money to support the number of people working here. As we enter the last months of FY2025, don’t expect the company to come out with any promotions or motivators that help you put more money in your pocket. The company can’t pay us while at the same time trying to retain profits for the almighty home office in Japan. The company will have to cut sales positions. I am not trying to scare people but Canon is not going to continue with this structure at these numbers. I highly doubt we will see that bonus in our paycheck at end of December with these type of numbers.

In addition, we will continue to dip on the market share pie chart as lesser end brands meet our current customers demand for a lower price. We are stuck trying to raise the price in an economy where no one is willing to pay more for these products. We are forcing our customers to price us out when we ask them to spend more.

So what happens next? More layoffs? Reduction or increase in quotas? Change in the compensation plan to adapt to the discounting needed to win deals?

All I will say is the decisions that are being made in Melville right now will either power this company through these tough times or drive the ship right into the wall.

SB in response to one of the canned questions; "it's impossible to forecast quarter to quarter for Wall Street". Wait, what?!!! I thought that is your job. Then he followed with a telling slip of the tongue; "That's why companies go private and can come back out on the other side". He's done a yoemans job of plowing the share price into the ground and now he's hoping for a buyer to execute the plan his boss Carl brought him in here to do in the first place.

What do you think? I can’t tell anymore…

Why Do We Steer Clear of TDC?

Offerings couldn’t generate interest over the last year as its billings have averaged 6.2% declines

Projected sales decline of 2.5% over the next 12 months indicates demand will continue deteriorating

Sky-high servicing costs result in an inferior gross margin of 59.3% that must be offset through increased usage

November 4 will be interesting.

Will it make a difference or is it temporary?

if you wanna see the crystal ball in this place looks at the projections and budgets.

that's all

It seems 5% so far. I am sure the largest wave hasn’t come yet.

What are the chances?

Been following the latest crude oil forecasts and noticing some mixed signals — demand projections softening in parts of Asia, geopolitical risk premiums fluctuating, and inventories looking tighter than expected. Some analysts are projecting a short-term dip before potential recovery next year.

For those closer to planning or market intelligence: How are you interpreting these signals for the next 6–12 months?
How much does short-term crude price movement realistically influence workforce planning at your org, versus broader strategic priorities?

Just saying. It's just my gut feel given the direction and how lost the execs are. Zero strategy, poor direction, poor execution. The executives are the ones who should be let go, not the worker.

Wall street is projecting 1 cent earning per share, a huge turnaround from 46 cents loss last year. Hopefully we don’t disappoint and deliver to a already very low expectations. Will this be a reality check? Gut check? Or both?

IBM's "whisper number" for Q3 2025, or the consensus estimate, is approximately $16.09 billion in revenue and $2.43 per share in earnings. Some analysts anticipate earnings could be slightly higher, at around $2.45 per share, driven by AI and hybrid cloud demand, though others are watching software growth closely following a miss in the previous quarter. The company is scheduled to report its official Q3 results on October 22, 2025.

Team keep an eye out for a call after I find out how I’m getting paid where I tell you what business will close in the next four months. Perhaps Wednesday? No rush, we do this for fun right?

If you're smart, you're already on your way out.

Apache has several headwinds ahead that could alter the company’s outlook and trajectory.
Abandonment liabilities increasing into the +4 billion dollar range as North Sea and Fieldwood combine to create a very significant financial drag.
Permian basin starting to show signs off deliverability well issues as wells enter the post flush phase…that long runway is looking less attractive.
Gran Morgu…aka Deepwater Alpine High…something is off here…like a purposeful delay and concern from project manager…that the promised 250,000 bopd peak may actually be closer to half advertised and with high decline rates

Had 3 lay off is in my department over the last week and was told we were done with so called lay offs for the rest of the year. However I am seeing the forecast of $50 a barrel by January so I’m sure our jobs will be sent oversees again and I will be back on unemployment in the new year.

Expecting this to dip to 56,000 by Q3, 2025 and an earnings beat

link: https://investors.centene.com/2025-07-25-CENTENE-CORPORATION-REPORTS-SECOND-QUARTER-2025-RESULTS