How often do people like me get cut? I've already seen some newer faces disappear. Is it just bad luck, or are we in more danger?
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There's a risk here as you could be left in a lurch if they rif a bunch on your team. You would be stuck picking up the pieces. Better off looking for more stability elsewhere.
As others have mentioned, if you are new and cheap you might have better job security. I believe that years back, consultants sold SLT on an “agile” methodology where they were to secure their knowledge base- the chose inner circle who would be the product/business owners. Then all other roles were to be off shored or replaced with cheaper options. Problem is the no nothing SLT chose their no nothing BFFs, a** kissers as the brain trust. They proceeded to RIF those with institutional knowledge. The inner circle is clueless of how things work because they have never done the real work. They create incorrect or spotty business requirements then blame IT when things don’t work. They will expect you as a new hire without institutional knowledge or training to take the place of the person you replaced and to have the same level of productivity. You might be scapegoated for not knowing things you would have no way of knowing or not doing things you weren’t asked to do. If you point out incorrect knowledge or unethical actions on the part of the inner circle, you might put a target on your back. They can be very defensive in their ignorance. Not even talking about having an opinion (which is never encouraged) but things like IT functions where something is black and white, it either works a certain way or it doesn’t. You could also be Riffed if you are attached to a SLT member who loses favor or if you were attached to a project or product that gets cancelled. You could also be riffed if they exit a market. There are also quarterly Rifs and usually a big year end RIF to help the SLT meet earnings goals so they can get bonuses or so they can up the stock price so they can dump stock. Save money and continue to network because having job security really has very little to do with your actual work ethic or job performance. Get as much training or resume enhancement as possible. Work at about 75% capacity and realize that they aren't looking at a long-term relationship so you shouldn't either. If you are 8 months in and already sensing the dysfunction then you have good instincts.
Sometimes luck - if you are a new hire out of school or young you are likely fine. They don’t tend to allow jobs to be posted that are earmarked for reductions. But there’s no guarantee if a whole department is being reorganized. Get lots of good experience and then move on later if needed. No one is truly “safe” anywhere forever. There’s lots of great people here and opportunities to learn.
The grim reaper tends to be fickle here.
Its a dice roll - the best advice is look for a job while you have a job - honestly there are so many better places to work than here -
Criteria - new, tenured, paid too much, barely know you, don't like you, too many people like you, - it really has nothing to do with working "extra" or "harder" work towards meeting standards and keep looking for other opportunities is the best advice someone who has been here a good while can offer
It could be that the people you don’t see anymore left on their own accord. Turnovers can be pretty high in areas of the company. I don’t think tenure has a lot to do with riffs as many times it is a person who has been here awhile and getting rid of tenured people cuts down on future severance payouts. It just depends on what areas are chosen for cuts.