@g1
You’re living in a feel-good fantasy where “just pay Americans more and poof, 700,000 world-class software engineers, ML researchers, and systems architects magically appear.” That’s not economic reality—that’s nationalist copium.
Let’s do the math you keep dodging, but this time without the gentle padding:
• The U.S. needs to replace ~600,000–700,000 working H-1Bs (mostly in tech) while simultaneously filling ~350,000 net-new tech jobs and ~200,000 annual replacements from churn/retirement by 2033.
Total shortfall if we slam the borders shut tomorrow: roughly 1.2–1.5 million qualified bodies over the next decade.
• Domestic CS/engineering bachelor’s grads: ~110,000 per year max.
After leakage to finance, consulting, grad school, and the ones who just burn out and become yoga instructors: maybe 60,000 actually enter software roles.
That’s 600,000 over ten years—less than half of what we need just to tread water, never mind grow.
• You think “offer more money” fixes this? We already did. Base pay for new-grad software engineers at the big tech firms is $150k–$250k, total comp $200k–$400k+. Senior ICs and staff engineers are clearing $500k–$1M+. That’s more, inflation-adjusted, than any generation of engineers has ever been offered in human history.
And guess what? The enrollment needle barely twitched. Americans looked at the 80-hour weeks, constant LeetCode interviews, and on-call rot—and a huge chunk said “nah, I’ll take finance or law or even plumbing instead.”
• The specialized talent you’re so confident we can “grow at home” doesn’t work like that. The number of people on Earth who can meaningfully push the frontier in large-scale distributed systems, compiler design, or cutting-edge ML is measured in the low thousands. A non-trivial percentage of them were born in Hyderabad or Shenzhen, not Ohio. You don’t “incentivize” a mid-career American accountant to become one of those people. It’s a 10–15 year process starting from age 12, and we didn’t run that program.
• Clothing manufacturing never came back because wages in Bangladesh are $0.50 an hour and the work is brain-dead simple. You actually think FAANG is going to keep $800 billion in market cap while paying Bangalore-level wages? No—they’ll just move the whole damn team to Bangalore (or Toronto, or Warsaw, or remote-friendly EU). We’ve seen this movie before: when H-1B caps were tight in the early 2000s, Microsoft opened a giant campus in Vancouver. They’ll do it again in a heartbeat.
Bottom line: if you actually ki-l the H-1B program without a 20-year heads-up, you don’t “bring the jobs home.” You watch American tech slowly bleed global market share while the next generation of unicorns gets founded in Toronto, London, Singapore, and Shenzhen by the exact same “foreigners” you just deported. The jobs don’t come back—they evaporate or flee.
That’s not “economic reality” in your favor. That’s arithmetic telling you the richest country in the world still can’t conjure elite STEM talent out of thin air on a five-year timeline. We’re already at the absolute limit of what financial incentives alone can produce, and it’s nowhere near enough.
Bank on that.