I personally think they are setting up Comcast to be sold off either as a whole or in chunks. All the businesses that the "new" Comcast will be in (cable, internet, home security, mobile) are hypercompetitive and hard to survive in. Then NBC/Sky etc. can be the growth end.
Sounds a bit far-fetched to me.
@bc There are real obstacles to a sale, but this doesn’t rule one out.
First, you’re calling equity value, existing debt and a takeover premium “$200 billion in debt.” Those aren’t the same thing. You’re also pricing today’s combined company. After NBCUniversal and Sky separate, the remaining business needs its own valuation and debt calculation. It could cost materially less, we need the final terms to know how much. Brian’s voting power matters. Assuming he would reject any deal to protect the Comcast name is speculation. His media ambitions could still be served through NBCUniversal.
The Philly argument doesn’t hold up either. A buyer can keep its headquarters elsewhere and maintain Philly as another operating location. Offices can be consolidated and properties sold, subject to existing obligations. Centralized support makes selling individual markets more complicated, but doesn’t make it impossible. Acquisition plans and interest in LA or New York don’t rule out a merger or asset sales. Antitrust depends on the actual buyer and deal.
Management has publicly denied that the separation is preparation for future transactions. That deserves acknowledgment. Financing, tax and regulatory hurdles also matter. But none of that establishes that Comcast cannot eventually be sold, merged or sold in pieces.
Couple reasons a 'sale of Comcast' doesnt make sense...
COST - I can't think of a single company that is willing to take on $200 Billion in debt. Market cap is ~$77 billion + $87 billion in debt. + shareholder premium 15 to 30 billion Some debt will go with NBC but not enough
EGO Brian will not allow the Comcast name to die so any business buying it company will have to keep the name, to the surprise of no one here the name isnt exactaly revered. Also nothing happen with out the blessing of Brian due to his 33% voting share
BUYING Poistion. ELT has mentioned several times splittting off NBC puts the rest of the company in position for making acquisitions. Let's hope we dont buy another SKY or for my CB people Deep Blue or Blue Face
DEATH OF REGIONS writing on the wall all the regions suport teams will be moved to philly except for boots on the ground. A buyer is very unlikely to have a HQ in Philly so how do they mesh the company in to theirs. Hard to sell off regions/markets when all the support teams have been moved to Philly
ANTI TRUST Current administration is not a big comcast fan so unlikely another telco would achieve approval.
LA & NEW YORK. The ELT has a hard on to acquire one or both of these markets for some reason. Probably could put this in the Ego bucket too
@b9 Where’s the Xumo spinoff talks coming from?
@b9 rumor is 3/4 of his budget was going towards TV and streaming. Sounds like they put him right where he wanted to be anyway.
The former CPO being demoted to just oversee Entertainment Product and Engineering reporting directly to SC while training his replacement suggests both that he's gone (good riddance) and that that unit will likely be spun out as part of Xumo spin-off, which actually makes sense, and was always the plan. Given how poorly the CPO has supported the paying Xumo clients it would be shocking if he were still here at the end of those 90 days.
Yes, they are stripping things down to be more attractive for sale. No one will admit it until it happens. But it will happen. If they don’t sell in 27 or 28, they’ll be begging for a buyer in 29. The downfall will be even faster if we keep pretending to be a tech company.
@ae this would be the worst outcome for anyone left. Hopefully someone buys NBCU/Sky spinoff and Comcast uses to pay down debt to attract a better company to buy Comcast. We should not be in the acquisition business for a while if ever again
@ae they probably will need to to survive but they are so in debt
@a8 charter just bought Cox cable this year. That’s why they have debt
Comcast will purchase Charter (Spectrum). Once Comcast divests the Media part, they will not be regulated any longer.
altice is also in trouble so who knows what sort of mergers could happen
@ab "relative to Six Flags, Comcast is very well run!"
About the same amount of brain damage, so this checks out.
@a6 relative to Six Flags, Comcast is very well run!
@a8 this is missed by alot. There is profit despite the loss of customers but it does mean we got bloated during the good times, and waited to long to account for the downturn. We invested large in some teams or technology of the business and got some good products but maybe not a good return on investments. To me the restructure looks like an attempt to rightsize, slow the bleeding and wait out the market conditions. Some competitors will die off and we may be positioned to buy out some of those markets. Merging seems like a poor idea as some competition is heavily debt burdened at least according to reports. Though we could be positioned to buy out some of their markets if conditions are right.
roberts is not selling. people acting like the company doesnt still make profits is wild.
Comcast being sold - unlikely. I know the current feeling is that we su-k… we really dont
A. Profitable business
B. Low debt
C. Making internal adjustments to implement change. Regardless of personal thoughts, the company is making moves.
D. Although the stock is low, cmcsa is one of the better dividend paying values
What is likely
Buying Charter/Spectrum … charter has massive debt and needs help
Separating cmcsa does appear to be a move to prepare for 1 of the above. The move removes the previous franchise concerns which stopped the previous attempt
Not sure Mr. Roberts having a hand in anything would allow Comcast to be sold. Keeping a hand in the family business seems to be important.
There definitely is a hint of a partnership/merger/acquisition with Spectrum in the air. Also, Netflix could very well acquire NBCUniversal's IP, as well as the sports programming. The question is where do the theme parks go--can't see Disney acquiring them. Maybe Six Flags does and resurrects the Great Adventure name?
Rumor also going around Comcast wants to acquire Spectrum...lean and mean...separate the 'parks and movies' from the 'connections and advertising'....
I could see it. Something tells me Angelakis didn’t interrupt his golfing down south just to oversee layoffs and restructuring. Wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a bigger deal in the works. And being a former Comcast exec, he can play the “I’m one of you” card internally, while his CFO background gives him credibility with a potential buyer or merger partner. If it all plays out, he’ll probably get the headlines and the financial upside. Pure speculation, but the pieces seem to fit.
Well played.
My theory has been that they will continue the segmentation: Xfinity, Comcast Business, Advertising, etc. but they are also setting up regional ops to operate as a standalone as well.
@OP 100% agree with this. The writing is on the table. Comcast will be sold, I say by end of this year if not next.
that same rumor is going around