I agree—this is the dilemma facing every telco and cable company today: what is the next big thing? For Comcast, I think several things went wrong.
First, Comcast has always viewed new products through the lens of its network footprint. X1 was designed as a better video experience for Comcast customers. Netflix, by contrast, built for anyone in the world who wanted to watch video. That difference in mindset matters. Comcast kept asking how new products could strengthen the network business rather than simply asking what product consumers wanted most.
Second, almost everything had to tie back to broadband. The assumption was that a better video product like X1 would help sell or retain broadband. New businesses and products were rarely allowed to stand completely on their own; ultimately, they had to support the bundle. If they had cut the ties to the network, they could have been the company delivering online-video to everyone.
Third, Comcast was slow to recognize that broadband had fundamentally changed. When subscriber trends weakened in 2022, the explanation was initially that the problem was temporary—fewer moves, unusual market conditions, a bad quarter. I remember a meeting with Dave Watson where the message was essentially, “This is not a video moment. These losses are temporary.” But Comcast was facing something much bigger: consumers increasingly had credible broadband alternatives, and Comcast was no longer the only high-speed option in many of its markets.
Finally, Comcast responded with years of incremental cost cutting instead of making enough bold structural decisions. Why continue significant investment in legacy video and X1 rather than putting it into maintenance mode? Why keep businesses like Xfinity Home instead of selling them to a company where home security is core? Why maintain organizations and initiatives that no longer have a clear path to growth? Instead of decisively eliminating costs, Comcast often spread the cuts across the company and starved every team.
Now it faces pressure across multiple businesses at the same time, while costs cannot come down nearly as fast as the market is changing. The bigger lesson is simple: when innovation is primarily designed to protect the legacy business, eventually the legacy business starts defining—and limiting—what the company can become.