I called $125 by Nov. 1rst 5 months ago (check the logs here). Seems to be moving that way. I also called the company will file for protection and bankruptcy then restructure during 2027/2028. There are just too many financial warning signs to ignore. It's straight forward - do the research and look at history across other bubbles and timeframes. Ironic and eerlity simimilar. RIF's are a constant reality at Oracle but will not make a significant difference to the ultimate outcome of where this company is headed.
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Fundamental Stress Test: Why is ORCL sliding?
Oracle’s recent drop down to the $130s highlights the primary catalyst driving the stock right now: Massive CapEx vs. Extreme Cash Burn.
The Bull Case (The Backlog): Oracle has a staggering $664 billion Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) backlog due to massive AI cloud contracts (including major infrastructure deals for OpenAI and Meta). Q: Will it convert at the full value anticipate. Skeptical and doubtful
The Bear Case (The Bill): To build the data centers for this backlog, Oracle is burning cash rapidly. Fiscal 2026 free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion, and fiscal 2027 net cash CapEx is approaching a massive $70 billion. Q, Do they have the right leadership with the skills required. No.
Financing Fears: Oracle plans to raise $40 billion in new debt and equity to fund this buildout. The credit markets are charging a premium for this uncertainty, pushing Oracle's credit default swaps notably higher than the investment-grade average.
My call at $125 by Nov. stands.
F*K Oracle.
$93.27 will be this years low point heading into the new year.
low 100's by end of this year
Zero ;0);0);0);0);0)
@ay $75
To the guy with a $280 strike price, you're absolutely right bro...
Forever is a long, looooong time!
XD
Yo. It’s $140 now.
@a9 If the stock goes up by 33%, you would have been better off with the options. But remember, no crying in the casino.
Anyone who took Options that last September stock high will have to wait a long time for the strike price to be reached :/ my strike price is like 280?
@OP, if you are right about restructuring and possibly bankruptcy in that time frame than they will likely turn up the volume on layoffs with less severance before then to push out the financial problems.
@a4 RSUs always have a value which is what makes them more attractive than stock options. They may be worth less than when they were issued but you will always get something unless they reach zero in which case you will likely have even bigger problems.
Well, I guess it's OK if RSUs get issued at this low price but amy you got last year are massively underwater.
Canary in the coalmine much?
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/oracle-data-center-force-majeure.html
shares fell 5% on Thursday following news that the company sent a “force majeure” notice tied to its New Mexico data center project to protect itself from higher expenses.