Here's how I see the next two years playing out.
It starts with a Q4 earnings miss. The stock drops. Then the data center timelines slip, and it drops again. Neither hit is fatal on its own, but together they shake the confidence the whole story depends on.
Meanwhile, the layoffs don't stop. They won't come as one big announcement. They'll keep arriving quietly, team by team, the surgical cuts we've already been watching.
The reorg is where the real damage shows. The new structure won't hold, and it will break hardest in the old GIUs that now report into different leaders and serve different priorities. Those units ran on deep domain knowledge and their own way of working. Pull that apart, and the industry-specific products start to stall. Some won't just slow down. They'll fall off a cliff and go into negative growth.
None of this shows up in the numbers right away. Strategy decisions take time to work through a company this size. By Q4 2027, though, the consequences will be impossible to ignore, and that's when the stock craters.
By 2028, Oracle is in full recovery mode. I am voting with my checkbook and accumulating stock right now - I've been known to make grave investment mistakes and read this with a dose of caution.