Thread regarding AT&T layoffs

ATT Analyst day presentation .... the start of an end??

Beginning to see some discord and dysfunction in the team ... John "colorful socks" Donovan alludes to John Stevens of stifling growth in the mobility side by restricting investment ( allocating for capacity expansion of 5MHz of spectrum at a time instead of more), he also admits that ATT has the highest ARPU ( means either they earn more or they cost less, judging from his long term strategy to bring costs down, it should probably be clear which it is) in the industry for video, so their plan is to catch cord cutters with Directv now and Watch TV which are very lean contributors or at best breakeven ( shifting them to lower value products is going to reduce earnings). Its counter intuitive to hike prices ( selectively targeting customers that use TV as an entertainment baby sitter will be charged more) and not expect that subs will increasingly switch / cut their cord entirely. He even says they are done launching satellites, so the bulk of the rural subs will be without service (its hard to provide broadband access to rural subs) in a few years. That would be an even more drop in earnings.

Stankey's opening during QA session about Trump Whitehouse standard "take the mike away from him ..", and Randall's immediate quip of "there goes another law suit!", John Donovan's responses to Stankeys's "he is calling me a rail" indicate a sense of frustration in the team.

CFO John " nervously fidgeting" Stephens never sounded so incredulous, it's almost like he does not even believe what he is saying .. they want to salvage 8B$ from their assets, stuff for which that they overpaid by atleast 200-300% (DTV and TW), 12 B$ from their free cash flow after dividends to pay down the 20B$ debt, they may very well do 2.5 times debt to EBITDA but it could backfire immediately after wards because all these extra earnings will come from existing subscribers with existing services and they probably will not see much value increase, so it would seem improbable if subscribers can remain asleep during this gradual extortion and if shareholders can remain indifferent to the dilution of their stock's value. In a couple of years, starting in 2020, after all their strategies play out, the fate of ATT will be clear. It's highly unlikely that the company can regain the glory when 1 in 1000 worked for the "phone" company and most of the employees prided themselves in designing and deploying technologies to connect people even in the nooks and corners of the country and the world at large, economically and reliably.

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| 2595 views | | 14 replies (last July 26, 2019) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+WuYZJHR

14 replies (most recent on top)

8 months ago ..... they may very well do 2.5 times debt to EBITDA but it could backfire immediately after wards because all these extra earnings will have to come from existing subscribers with existing services who probably will not see much value increase, so it would seem improbable if they can remain asleep during this gradual extortion and if shareholders can remain indifferent to the erosion of their stock's value. In a couple of years, starting in 2020, after all their strategies play out, the fate of ATT will be clear

3/4 of a million subs canceled means approx 1 Billion$ less revenue . or that much less FCF .. the overheads are still the same ...content acquisition costs, engineering, operations, ... service can scale down with reduced demand but unless some other division bails out EG, it will get increasingly harder to remain afloat .. selling off assets ... how can they sell stuff that they overpaid by 100% and hope to pay down their debt??

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Post ID: @3Kelo+WuYZJHR

In all honesty, I don’t think they care. They’ve made a bunch money and could be fired tomorrow without losing anything. They will get picked up to run some other company in the ground and business as usual.

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Post ID: @4wvw+WuYZJHR

If one were to look at the assets ATT owns and price it without the hefty "good will", it will be clear how much asset is actually behind the 30$ share.

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Post ID: @1elr+WuYZJHR

Verizon Tmo et,al seem like lean mean org focused on providing great connectivity for a good price in comparison to ATT's mobility which earns more than half the revenue. The rest are dying businesses which it shouldered unnecessarily. When someone does video well, leave it to them ... all they needed to figure out is how to get the communications part right. By raising prices continuously they pretty much killed the golden goose.

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Post ID: @1mzk+WuYZJHR

executives always win if in doubt yesterday 12/6/2018 the Dow Jones reset/stop trading for few minutes once the triple digit loss was evident, The billionaire elite control most of the stocks. Access to super computers helped guarantee their wins, but even they have been cashing out. George Soros, for example. Insiders always know when to bail.

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Post ID: @1ysi+WuYZJHR

Where would neutral arbiters such as Media Ratings Council, who ensure fairness in calculating ratings figure in this ad-exchange model?. Ignoring the considerations and costs of big data analytics, it remains to be seen if privacy concerns due to monitoring of consumer behavior and the annoyance of interjecting commercials will be acceptable to the subscribers.There is definitely a need to provide what subscribers want and subscribers clearly do not want ads pushed to them and certainly do not want companies prying into their lives

how can a compnay be so brazen as to violate the privacy of its subs?

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Post ID: @1dwt+WuYZJHR

"when DTV's aging satellite fleet begins to go out of commission in a few years" - well then, can the frequencies that Direct TV be repurposed? If those frequencies owned by Direct TV are AT&T's to do what they want to, then what happens then, should they decide to dedicate those frequencies to a territorial endeavor versus a space endeavor.

The devil is in the details, and I don't know what the details are. The value in Dish and Direct TV is those frequency allocations. The details is in how much AT&T's hands are tied in reusing those frequency allocations.

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Post ID: @1duh+WuYZJHR

when DTV's aging satellite fleet begins to go out of commission in a few years rural subs may migrate to Dish / Sling. DTV engineering used to be good solid aerospace / video folks but they started to hire IT consultants who pretty much act busy while producing little or no value. Something about them, they have a huge jinx factor.

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Post ID: @1qih+WuYZJHR

Considering what ATT was doing behind the scenes to get this deal through ( 600K bribe to Trump through Michael Cohen) and what else that has not been uncovered, it belies imagination to the extent this leadership is going, bilking 7 B shares, hedging risky bets with funds for pension benefits. So all in all, its hard to see how earnings can become flat unless there is some "David Blaine" style financial wizardry.

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Post ID: @1kpi+WuYZJHR

You should have an email with links to the highlights and all of the video from the analyst meeting last week. Subject of email: "Hear from our leadership at the AT&T Analyst Meeting", sent last Fri 11/30

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Post ID: @ikh+WuYZJHR

Each year, AT&T gets the lowest customer satisfaction scores, thanks to the fact that their services are prone to disruptions (often from things they can’t control, like the weather, hurricanes, and fires) and that they tend to have few to none competitors (which means there is less incentive to give excellent services),

most dislike dealing with the call centers (mostly offshored). That’s followed by dealing with AT&T website and frustrations at how well the company keeps service interruptions and outages to a minimum, while you paid you full bill without any discounts

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Post ID: @pzz+WuYZJHR

I guess: https://edge.media-server.com/m6/p/ekdz3o5s

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Post ID: @mxa+WuYZJHR

which event was this? any link to webcast?

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Post ID: @hjb+WuYZJHR

Good article, how business people can destroy a company in the blink of an Eye

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Post ID: @mhv+WuYZJHR

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