Correction 3/15/18 is my off payroll date.
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I interface with TFS regularly in my current role and know many of the folks in my region personally going back 20 years. I cannot believe that the layoffs that been the norm among many other orgs over the past few years seem to have not touched them at all. There are MTSO locations staffed with 3, 4, 5 people that don't have enough work for one. This is partly due to automation, but mostly due to all of the work that has been steadily farmed off over the years to MPC, ATS, and other orgs under the MNRC umbrella. I don't think it's reasonable to expect TFS will remain untouched. Junior personnel should be taking advantage of any/ all training the company is offering that will make them more marketable to outside companies when the inevitable happens.
That's a good indication that a surplus will be happening. I'm speaking from experience. I am currently a TFS tech in the Midwest and was declared surplus on 12/15/17 with an off payroll date of 3/15/17. The company asserted we were give or take approx 110 over headcount. Unfortunately it's difficult to assume their estimates were incorrect because as you stated day after day many techs ran out of work by the afternoon. Hope it doesn't happen as I don't take any enjoyment in anyone losing their primary means of making a living. It's not a secret for years the company has informed everyone i.e. Shareholders, employees, media, etc of their intentions to significantly reduce their workforce. The writing is on the wall and you will be doing yourself a disservice in ignoring the signs. Currently no work group is considered safe the company views employees as liquid capital and will do whatever it takes to increase profit margins as that is the primary goal of any successful business.