Thread regarding Verizon Communications Inc. layoffs

Crystal Ball - Just My Thoughts

Five years from now, what we all call the Northeast (the former NYNEX/Bell Atlantic) land line footprint will be owned and operated by another "telecommunications" company. Verizon will sell off the last portion of the "last mile" and evolve into a wireless carrier / transport carrier / and IPTV provider.

You see, as wireless technology continues to advance, all the services we come to rely on over the coax/copper technology will be relics of the past. Think about it for a moment, how many "landlines" have telephone companies lost over the past 15 years? This segment of the business is dead,,,it's not our fathers phone company anymore. The only real land lines will be those serving businesses / hospitals / emergency services / schools, but will eventually evolve to all fiber connections. Who will be around to transport those connections across the country and around the world; Verizon, which owns one of the, if not the largest fiber backbone networks anywhere.

As Verizon sheds the last mile, right to compete clauses will be built into those agreements limiting Verizon's ability to compete in those areas, but only for a short time frame. Once those agreements exhaust, what we call fios today will be pumped over the airwaves to a wireless set top box and waalaa, all your communications needs (phone, wifi, 911, ala-cart TV) will be at your finger tips. Completely bypassing the "last mile" network.

Evolution is inevitable, whether it's the auto industry, health care, education, etc., etc., and our industry will be no different. Think of how large the wireless footprint is today (sea to shining sea) - that's a footprint much larger than the land line footprint of today. If this company expects to "grow the business" it must look beyond the "last mile" for both coverage and available services. We have and continue to enhance the fiber backbone network today and it will go a long way in handling the advanced services of tomorrow.

What we don't know in all of this is how "labor" will evolve,,,,what do we need to do know to ensure viable well paid / benefited jobs are around as this transition begins to take place?

Peace :)

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| 1522 views | | 29 replies (last May 28, 2016) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+HC12OzQ

29 replies (most recent on top)

You guys are conveniently forgetting that the union workforce was locked out of the wireless side by the company's design a long time ago. If it wasn't for the invention of fiber optics maybe some of your anti-union POTS fantasies would come true but the fact is that wireline is here to stay.

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Post ID: @uqn+HC12OzQ

I love how people swallow the entire 5G pitch from our snake-oil-salesman CEO...

While AT&T and VZ - two obese, oversized, evil Baby Bell twins - keep on repeating the same lie about wireline being dead and not-profitable, the rest of the civilized world is laying fiber left right and center, and that's not in order to prepare their networks for the upcoming (?) 5G. Of course, all the European and South Asian telcos/ISPs - many of which are heavily unionized - are doing this so they could file for bankruptcy sooner than later. Right.

Speaking of 5G, how about we get 4G LTE working first in areas like NYC so I don't have to walk out of the customer's home in order for my tablet to establish connection in a million-dollar-neighborhood? Wireless "last mile" is little more than a warmed-up WiMAX, and all of us know how well that one worked out. Right.

By the time the truth becomes apparent McAdam will be long since gone, having taken his zillion dollar golden parachute. That's all he cares about.

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Post ID: @hti+HC12OzQ

HC12OzQ-wuo

Not so sure that we will not still be paid by the company. They cannot do it with cheaper labor as the strike just proved. Never mind the fact that they will pay is even more than before now. Verizon no matter how bad they want to can not just get rid of the union. Only way is to sell us and to be honest there isn't a company out there that can afford us. If Vz got $10 billion for the small part of Cali, Florida and Texas then the northeast is worth somewhere in the amount of $50-60 billion. Nobody who would be interested can afford that so we will be here for a while.

Btw I do not wish and ill will on anybody. Mngmt or union. I realize that everybody is just trying to survive and provide for their family. I wish everybody the best of luck. I just don't agree with your hypothesis. Have a great weekend. Hopefully those who were away from family for so long can finally get to enjoy them. Happy Memorial Day!

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Post ID: @qno+HC12OzQ

HC12OzQ-qgx

Labor will evolve the same way it did when the initial switch from copper to fiber began. WE will be the people building this magical network you are talking about. It does just happen as we just found out from the strike. There is physical work, meaning hands on work needed to do this. What you should be asking is how will management and it evolve after these jobs are sent oversea because of the new network that labor builds? It is a global economy now, isn't it? Any job can be done for cheaper from a foreign person. Watch out.

Agree 100% that it will take "hands on work", but I don't think "the telephone company" will be direct depositing a check for you,,,more than likely it will come from the the union. We are all commodities and you're right, any job can be done for a cheaper cost,,,,,,including yours. You see, eventually the union will be your employer and then they'll have to make decisions based on profit and loss. Enhance your skills and be the best you can be at what you do because someday you'll be competing with your teammates for jobs.

And by the way, I'm not trying to rile anyone up about union vs company BS - just trying to think about what is eventually down the road.

Peace

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Post ID: @wuo+HC12OzQ

HC12OzQ-kle

What the hell does that have to do with anything I said about Lowell? All I was pointing out is that he tends to exaggerate and stretch the truth while explaining things. Just like 4g, let and of course his biggest tale go90. I'm glad you were able to hang around for 38 years. Good for you. I'm sure you have been hearing about the doom of wires for more than half of those years. We might be closer but are far from close.

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Post ID: @pwd+HC12OzQ

@ HC12 "Just because Mr. McAdam told you something doesn't mean it is true."

I could care less what LM has to say about anything, I settle up with Verizon every two weeks. I work for me and my family period,,,,,and been fortunate enough to make it last 38 years.

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Post ID: @kle+HC12OzQ

In Back To the future, the future date was October 21, 2015, (past) and as we all can see today we do not have flying car's and hydrating pizza's or my favorite the hoover board. So all your Crystal Ball dreams are just that dreams.

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Post ID: @zol+HC12OzQ

HC12OzQ-qgx

Labor will evolve the same way it did when the initial switch from copper to fiber began. WE will be the people building this magical network you are talking about. It does just happen as we just found out from the strike. There is physical work, meaning hands on work needed to do this. What you should be asking is how will management and it evolve after these jobs are sent oversea because of the new network that labor builds? It is a global economy now, isn't it? Any job can be done for cheaper from a foreign person. Watch out.

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Post ID: @dzk+HC12OzQ

He's right Marty Mcfly called Doc on one of those to tell Biff this Sh-T was going down.

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Post ID: @wjm+HC12OzQ

First of all your story is cute but if you have ever been in many of these big buildings you would realize that you don't always get a signal. sh-- I can't even get a Vz signal in my two family house. So keep on "imagining"this thing working so smoothly.

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Post ID: @nfy+HC12OzQ

No YouTube video here - it's 38 years of watching Contel/GTE/Verizon evolve. My original questions is what is labor doing to evolve in order to compete with the inevitable?

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Post ID: @qgx+HC12OzQ

HC12 - Again, how do they bypass it if in order to do so they need a fiber network to make it run?

Imagine you're sitting in your apartment on the 50th floor of a high rise in NYC and your cell phone rings; did that connection need to be wired to the LEC and then to that building / apartment to make it ring? No it didn't. Now imagine while you're in your apartment that you want to watch the Ryder Cup of 2022. You grab your remote and point it to the little black box sitting on your 9G TV which gets its signal from the same tower / small cell that rang your phone. From there you see your grandson bury a 50 footer for a US win. No wires, no LEC connection, just "plain ole wireless service".

All the fiber connections from the tower will run on Verizon owned back haul mesh network. And when you want to call your grandson to congratulate him, that will go over the same network to. If you want to call the local pizza joint a block away, that call will go from the tower over a leased circuit to the LEC to complete the call.

Peace

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Post ID: @pjs+HC12OzQ

The OP got this from a youtube video explaining this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbU3zdAgiX8

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Post ID: @bko+HC12OzQ

HC12OzQ-xnv

Sure they have the wireless backbone but that's not nearly enough. McAdam said himself that an antenna can be as far as 1000 meters away. Problem is is that is true when set up in ideal conditions. You would need to be MUCH closer than that in an urban environment. You are talking every block in a city would need the fiber extension. That means building an entire fiber network which NOBODY including Verizon is even close to having. This will take waaaayyyy more than 4 years to accomplish. And like I said, anybody that builds this monster WILL want to keep it for themselves.

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Post ID: @twy+HC12OzQ

agree with you about wire never being replaced, I just don't think Verizon is interested in owning / building and maintaining said wire. They'll sell it to someone else, and eventually bypass it with wireless technology and provide the same if not better services.

Again, how do they bypass it if in order to do so they need a fiber network to make it run? Who is going to build and maintain said plant for Verizon? Remember that fiber isn't regulated and companies do not have to lease back the network. Whoever builds this network will use it for itself. You cannot get to point b before reaching point a. And NO the wire services WILL NOT be capped. Just look at the restriction in the charter take over of time warner and lighthouse. Specifically says no capped data. America will wake up long before the telcos can screw us that bad.

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Post ID: @xpk+HC12OzQ

"C12OzQ-rna

So tell me what company has a fiber network that is gonna lease the network to us? Simple answer is no one because it does not exist."

Verizon has its own fiber backbone network that spans the US, what it doesn't build, it will lease until it's built. Shedding the last mile, 1) the sale of the footprint brings in needed funding to expand said fiber backbone footprint and 2) saves this company billions in maintenance costs. Eventually it won't need to lease any fiber. Verizon will be a back hauler of other carriers traffic, just like we do today.

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Post ID: @xnv+HC12OzQ

"So tell me what company has a fiber network that is gonna lease the network to us? Simple answer is no one because it does not exist."

How does Netflix, Hulu, Amazon prime etc. get their content to you?

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Post ID: @kzh+HC12OzQ

"Especially in cities like NY where the wire will NEVER be replaced. Fixed wire is the most reliable, fastest and best quality in today's technology and the foreseeable future. 5g is a scheme by Vz to rack up money in a non regulated market and it will either not work as advertised or be shunned by the masses because their bills WILL NOT go down."

I don't disagree with you about wire never being replaced, I just don't think Verizon is interested in owning / building and maintaining said wire. They'll sell it to someone else, and eventually bypass it with wireless technology and provide the same if not better services.

As for the bills not going down, this too will evolve to consumption based billing; i.e., you pay for what you use, just like at the grocery store or gas station. Some bills will go down, while others will go up.

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Post ID: @bmx+HC12OzQ

C12OzQ-rna

So tell me what company has a fiber network that is gonna lease the network to us? Simple answer is no one because it does not exist.

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Post ID: @aki+HC12OzQ

Where is it working? In a lab? You can also get 1.8gig on copper in ideal conditions. How would a big city like New York work with all the 60-100 story buildings running interference? Or try to tell these companies that they don't have a secure, closed network? This technology IS NOT 4 years away!

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Post ID: @ehm+HC12OzQ

"How do you figure that it won't limit is to our geographical footprint? "

Because the new Verizon is not going to be a company solely based on being the provider of the "pipes".

I honestly can't say anymore.

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Post ID: @rna+HC12OzQ

Wcm-

I disagree. His statement was well thought out. The only reason I feel confident in saying this is because I have already seen all the hardware. It is not vaporware, and it is already working. It's not ready for prime time yet, but it won't be much longer. This doesn't mean the older technologies will disappear immediately, just that they will not be those generally preferred by most consumers going forward as the new technology brings too much flexibility and ease of use with it. Of course the old-school technologies will remain on for some time yet, but the market will continue to shrink. The point is, we don't want to completely hitch our wagons to something on the decline, it's better to be part of something on the way up.

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Post ID: @yze+HC12OzQ

HC12OzQ-sot

How will they get rid of the union labor. They just tried that and failed miserably! Think people, THINK!

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Post ID: @kbv+HC12OzQ

HC12OzQ-mxa

How do you figure that it won't limit is to our geographical footprint? 5g NEEDS a fiber backbone in order to work. It doesn't just get beamed around the country through lasers or how ever else you think. It goes to an antenna on a pole that is connected to a fiber cable. They will still NEED to build the plant.

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Post ID: @wkz+HC12OzQ

Probably not the last contract, but definitely one of the last couple of contracts. Here is how I see it; what we know as the "union" today will in itself become a corporation/s for tomorrow. In other words, companies like Verizon will shed it's "labor" employees over time and "contract" out the work to build and maintain its network. The CWA/IBEWs of the world will evolve into corporations that provide the necessary skilled work forces to provide those build and maintain services. They'll have to compete with other like service providers, some good, some not so good. Members will no longer get a paycheck / benefits from "the telephone company" but rather from the CWA/IBEW corporations of America.

What concerns me now is, I'm not sure leadership in the CWA/IBEWs of the world actually look beyond the current contract in place. It's time to think anew and begin to evolve into the next generation of labor.

Peace

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Post ID: @sot+HC12OzQ

"Once those agreements exhaust, what we call fios today will be pumped over the airwaves to a wireless set top box and waalaa, all your communications needs (phone, wifi, 911, ala-cart TV) will be at your finger tips. Completely bypassing the "last mile" network."

For better or for worse, this is all absolutely true. The first generation of this is already in beta. It will definitely be here before the next contract. I am certain the future lies in this company with those who become knowledgeable and proficient in this area, so you can bet I will be focusing my energies in this direction going forward. The great thing about this technology is, it will not limit us to the company's current geographic footprint.

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Post ID: @mxa+HC12OzQ

Although you may seem to think this is a well thought out statement, I need to tell you that you are wrong on many levels. I don't have the time to explain why but maybe you should do a little more research on the subject. Just because Mr. McAdam told you something doesn't mean it is true. I can tell you that only two companies, Verizon and att, are telling you this. Tell that to the cable companies who have been "in the brink of extinction" for the last twenty years now about your assessment and you will be laughed at. Especially in cities like NY where the wire will NEVER be replaced. Fixed wire is the most reliable, fastest and best quality in today's technology and the foreseeable future. 5g is a scheme by Vz to rack up money in a non regulated market and it will either not work as advertised or be shunned by the masses because their bills WILL NOT go down. They will just have wireless caps. Nyc alone has a ten year plan to upgrade every building in the city to fiber to the prem. Wireless is just a distraction from the truth.

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Post ID: @wcm+HC12OzQ

I agree but it'll take longer than 5 years. Five years from now that technology will just start to take hold and I'll think this is why Verizon decided to build Boston. Verizon is gonna be using the San Francisco Super Bowl model going forward. McAdam stated recently in the packed Super Bowl stadium Verizon customers received 60mg service consistently while other carrier customers got circles. What a system like this calls for is a ton of fiber and I can't see Verizon parting with an inch.

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Post ID: @poy+HC12OzQ

I appreciate your insight and the fact you accept rather than ignore reality. This may be our last contract. Max your 401ks and stop the senseless spending. Wireless is going to kill us so if you can't prepare now then you'll be in a soup line in 4 years.

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Post ID: @dln+HC12OzQ

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