Thread regarding Xerox Corp. layoffs

The Bandy-Ponzi scheme: “Trust me, bro”

SB, aka Bandy, closed the last Town Hall with a sort of “Trust me, bro” line.

Fitting, because that’s basically the financial strategy right now: trust us while we borrow new money to pay old debt and hope nobody asks why the interest bill keeps climbing.

Xerox isn’t running a literal Ponzi scheme, but the behavior rhymes: fresh debt replaces maturing debt, each round more expensive than the last, with no cash flow to reduce anything on its own.

Let's not forget some of SB's “stellar” performances in this Ponzi-like scheme:

  • In September 2023, SB borrowed $500M to buy back from his lord and master Carl Icahn (a legendary activist investor who had fallen on hard times and was wrong not by decimal points but by several orders of magnitude in his calculations to buy HP) his stake in Xerox;

  • In late 2024, SB borrowed another $220M to buy ITSavvy, the company then and nowadays run by a friend of the now-departed COO John B (still a board member though);

(Meanwhile, days later, SB indulged the whims of the also now-departed Chief Disruption Officer and wasted $10-20M on sponsoring the Aston Martin Aramco Formula 1 team, which wouldn't even win a Hot Wheels toy car race)

  • And even though 2024 wasn't over yet, SB had time to plan how to borrow more money to acquire (well, rather than “acquire”, I would say “pay to be managed by”) Lexmark: close to $1B of extra liabilities for a company that lost about $740M last year.

SB & Friends claim they’ll pull out $200–300M in “synergies” by cutting overlapping functions, closing facilities, and shrinking corporate overhead.

Without those savings, the debt load gets heavier, interest expense keeps rising, and refinancing becomes harder. It’s that simple.

SB & Friends keep repeating the synergy story like it’s guaranteed.

It isn’t.

It requires flawless execution, discipline, and no surprises—things they know very little about.

Meanwhile, the core business is falling off a cliff. The only thing keeping this train moving is access to credit markets and the hope that lenders keep buying the story.

So yes: when the CEO says “Trust me, bro”, what he’s really saying is: “You are going to take a leap of faith and BELIEVE that the cuts will be implemented quickly, revenues will stop declining, and lenders will continue to be friendly”.

Except the lenders are not staying friendly anymore. S&P Global Ratings just cut Xerox’s credit rating to CCC+.

For those unfamiliar with S&P credit ratings: on a scale of 22, with 1 being “Prime” and 22 being “Lousy” (default, no money to pay bills anymore), CCC+ is 18.

S&P are also warning Xerox will burn $170–200M in cash this year and carry a debt load more than 7.5 times our earnings.

Put it in the simplest terms possible: the rating agency thinks we’re borrowing money just to stay alive, and that if anything goes wrong — if synergies slip, if revenue drops, if refinancing gets delayed — the whole structure can fall apart faster than any PowerPoint slide can explain.

At this point, the person who says "Trust me, bro" is in fact the last person you should trust.


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| 1805 views | | 11 replies (last November 26) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+1kavaa8pb

11 replies (most recent on top)

Finally, some smart people. Thanks for this. May help some of the nitwits posting here. But I doubt it. Hopefully the "lets do an employee survey to help the SLT" guy will get somebody to read this post to him.

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Post ID: @k4+1kavaa8pb

Goodwill Impairment Guy @by+1kavaa8pb, @OP here.

You’re directionally right: nobody with a calculator thinks layoffs alone will fix a multi-billion-dollar leverage problem. On that part, you’re spot on.

Where I’m not fully buying your take is the idea that management is intentionally driving toward a Chapter 7 liquidation.

That’s the least likely endgame; creditors and boards almost always push for Chapter 11 or a negotiated out-of-court restructuring first, because everyone loses far less that way.

Chapter 7 is a fire sale: lenders get scraps, equity is vaporized, pensions end up at PBGC with cuts, and executives don’t walk out looking like geniuses (well, they never did).

A more realistic interpretation is simpler and more depressing: bad strategy, too much debt, denial, and an overstretched balance sheet.

If the company runs out of cash and refinancing options, a court-driven restructuring becomes possible, even plausible—but deliberate Chapter 7 is a tail scenario, not the central one.

I would say that “management is steering toward liquidation on purpose” overestimates their cunning and underestimates their usual mismanagement.

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Post ID: @j7+1kavaa8pb

@b5 Appreciate your comment. Building on it. Lexmark leadership drove their company to significant debt. Lexmark leadership is clueless about speed bands above 35ppm. Lexmark Leadership is clueless about Xerox production and digital solution offerings. Yet Lexmark leadership is now responsible for it. I have no question as to why the street and investors are pulling back from this joint adventure and giving the joint adventure negative ratings. Heck a company who’s designated leadership who has not demonstrated measurable success (aka the street, Moody’s , etc) in any past capacity should not be included in any retirement plan. They would not be doing their fiduciary responsibilities.

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Post ID: @cp+1kavaa8pb

Hi, it's the Goodwill Impairment Guy.

@OP Great post! But I don't think it's as bad as you post makes the situation out to be: I think it's much worse.

Everybody, including me, has been waiting for a massive round of layoffs, To date, only a handful of people have been let go, in the scheme of things. Why?

This is where we get to the really spooky s$!# show part of the story. With the current debt load, and inability to borrow money at reasonable rates - if at all -we are at the point where a massive IRIF (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%) would not be enough savings to right the ship.

Instead of trying, management is steering into the iceberg, in hopes of CH7.

In CH7:
Billions in debt settle for pennies on the dollar.
The 1BN in unfunded Pension liabilities - gone. Let government insurance make the retirees whole.
Boardmembers, retained most likely through reorganization, along with upper SLT that aimed or the iceberg.
IRIFs balloon to perhaps 50% or more.
Bond and Equity holders - wiped out.

ITsavvy and Lexmark were just buying time to cash more checks, and it worked, just not as long as they had hoped..

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Post ID: @by+1kavaa8pb

There is No Chance of Success here.

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Post ID: @b9+1kavaa8pb

It’s a pyramid scheme. 🔺🔺🔺

As long as it keeps going, you can manage, once it stops or slows, you have issues everywhere. Shortly after that it all collapses and you are left in the middle of a debris field.

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Post ID: @b8+1kavaa8pb

Hot wheels toy race sounds right. It was the combined whim of the departed Disruption Officer (still don’t know what that role was) and the new CMO. So I wonder if the new CMO will keep it as making cuts everywhere else. Managed by Lexmark sounds and is right. Never heard of buying a failing company and then just rolling over. The SLT are weak beyond belief. If there is any chance of growth the focus has to be on everything other than print yet the sales leaders they have put in place only know print.

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Post ID: @b5+1kavaa8pb

Hey Write-a-Novel guy's back 📚

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Post ID: @as+1kavaa8pb

@OP you nailed it. The credit rating is screaming default. Forget the stock for a second, if you can’t get cash you can’t make payroll. Not paying bills you are headed for disaster. The death spiral is real. It’s hard to watch.

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Post ID: @a6+1kavaa8pb

TLDR

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Post ID: @a5+1kavaa8pb

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