Then you need to have a full and complete understanding of (i) the current state of the sports apparel & footwear market; and (ii) the current state of Nike’s financial position.
To put it broadly, this industry is currently in a mature state but with ever-increasing competition. It used to be that adi was our only serious competitor. Today however, smaller brands like On and Sketchers (and a dozen others) are slowly but steadily nibbling away market share. And unlike in the past, that lost market share doesn’t seem to be temporary. Once Nike loses market share there’s a good chance it’s gone for good.
Everyone needs to understand that Gen Z and Gen Alpha (the current and next big waves of consumers) were not raised with Nike being an integral part of the cultural zeitgeist. Many of us are old enough to remember iconic Nike commercials featuring Jordan, Lil’ Penny, and other notable figures. But Gen Z and Gen Alpha? To them Nike is just another large brand, and one they’re just as likely to associate with “Boomers” (I.e., anyone older than them). Nike wrongly assumed the brand would maintain its strength simply because…it’s Nike. That has proven to be a serious miscalculation.
This gets to the financials, which are interesting. Because on one hand Nike has enviable metrics (ROIC is particularly strong), but on the other hand Nike has a very expensive capital structure that wrongly assumes self-sustainability via an overwhelmingly dominant and ever-growing brand.
When you add all of it up we arrive at these conclusions:
- Nike is no longer a growth company. To the contrary it’s now struggling just to maintain low single-digit revenue growth. In the past these types of hiccups have been temporary and quickly reversed. Today however this will be the new normal.
- Nike will not shrink its headcount by tens of thousands, but it will still need to shrink its headcount by not insignificant numbers. That’s the only way it can ensure EPS growth while revenue growth is lagging. Layoffs will be targeted and regular. Over the next 2-3 years I would expect to see between 3,000-5,000 jobs eliminated; mostly targeted towards more highly-compensated employees. These won’t all be layoffs however. There will be retirements and natural attrition. Nonetheless Nike has no choice but to cut its payroll significantly.
This article discusses the other needed remedies, and should be a must-read for every Nike employee:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4750168-nike-just-cant-do-it-any-more