Thread regarding Nike Inc. layoffs

If you want to understand Nike’s future…

Then you need to have a full and complete understanding of (i) the current state of the sports apparel & footwear market; and (ii) the current state of Nike’s financial position.

To put it broadly, this industry is currently in a mature state but with ever-increasing competition. It used to be that adi was our only serious competitor. Today however, smaller brands like On and Sketchers (and a dozen others) are slowly but steadily nibbling away market share. And unlike in the past, that lost market share doesn’t seem to be temporary. Once Nike loses market share there’s a good chance it’s gone for good.

Everyone needs to understand that Gen Z and Gen Alpha (the current and next big waves of consumers) were not raised with Nike being an integral part of the cultural zeitgeist. Many of us are old enough to remember iconic Nike commercials featuring Jordan, Lil’ Penny, and other notable figures. But Gen Z and Gen Alpha? To them Nike is just another large brand, and one they’re just as likely to associate with “Boomers” (I.e., anyone older than them). Nike wrongly assumed the brand would maintain its strength simply because…it’s Nike. That has proven to be a serious miscalculation.

This gets to the financials, which are interesting. Because on one hand Nike has enviable metrics (ROIC is particularly strong), but on the other hand Nike has a very expensive capital structure that wrongly assumes self-sustainability via an overwhelmingly dominant and ever-growing brand.

When you add all of it up we arrive at these conclusions:

  1. Nike is no longer a growth company. To the contrary it’s now struggling just to maintain low single-digit revenue growth. In the past these types of hiccups have been temporary and quickly reversed. Today however this will be the new normal.
  1. Nike will not shrink its headcount by tens of thousands, but it will still need to shrink its headcount by not insignificant numbers. That’s the only way it can ensure EPS growth while revenue growth is lagging. Layoffs will be targeted and regular. Over the next 2-3 years I would expect to see between 3,000-5,000 jobs eliminated; mostly targeted towards more highly-compensated employees. These won’t all be layoffs however. There will be retirements and natural attrition. Nonetheless Nike has no choice but to cut its payroll significantly.

This article discusses the other needed remedies, and should be a must-read for every Nike employee:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4750168-nike-just-cant-do-it-any-more

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| 2512 views | | 15 replies (last February 1, 2025) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+1jjdbqh3c

15 replies (most recent on top)

Holy cr-p. Read the linked article and was shocked to read that MP has sold $77M worth of stock. $77M! Thats just criminal. How is it possible he was so richly compensated? I’d love to know where he invested that money and how much more stock he still owns. Sure, maybe the timing of the sales is preset. But don’t see a pattern in the data to suggest that. Makes me feel like a chump hoping my meager option grant will be of any value aside from lining a birdcage.

Agree with OP that this points to more turbulence ahead.

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Post ID: @1b3+1jjdbqh3c

Nike just needs to admit a sneaker bo-m happened, make a one time reset now that the markets cooled, and position for growth after. Unfortunately shareholders are too busy counting their pennies and fail to grasp this. It also doesn’t help that our leadership has been diluted with id--ts.

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Post ID: @13c+1jjdbqh3c

@kp+1jjdbqh3c Go into your local running shoe specialty stores and ask them what people are buying these days. You’ll hear On, Hoka, Brooks…and some Nike shoes every once in a while.

This is an industry where if you take your eyes off the prize for a few years as Nike has done, you’ll find other more nimble and more hungry competitors have swooped in and stolen your lunch.

On, for example, is now growing at 50% per year. They’re aiming for $10B in revenue within the next five years. Hoka is growing at a slightly slower but still rapid pace. And neither of these companies have even ventured into football (soccer) or basketball yet, although both have plans to do so. On is also now working with influencers like Zendaya, with her 180,000,000 Instagram followers, to rollout new apparel lines.

Guess who suffers from that type of growth? Legacy companies that are no longer innovating, no longer engaging in creative marketing that captures the hearts and minds of consumers, and are no longer seen as “cool” like they used to be. In other words, companies like Nike.

Nike leadership knows this. Just go look at Nike insider stock transactions over the past year. There’s an awful lot of selling going on. MM in particular helped herself to around $10,000,000 before sailing off into the sunset. If Nike is improving rapidly as you claim, it looks like someone forgot to tell some of Nike’s largest individual shareholders.

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Post ID: @pn+1jjdbqh3c

Nike is already ending DEI so its just a matter of time before Nike turns the ship around. So your take is wrong. Nike is already improving rapidly.

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Post ID: @kp+1jjdbqh3c

PK, NKE “leadership” and the board owned by PK/TK hate you. Every one of you.

This is what you voted for. Enjoy it.

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Post ID: @kn+1jjdbqh3c

"Holiday spending was fantastic I hear, at least in this country."
It's BS.

"
Most Americans cannot afford a $1,000 emergency expense, with inflation and high interest rates affecting their ability to save adequately, according to a recent survey by consumer services company Bankrate.
A full 59 percent of Americans aren’t in a position to use their savings “to pay for a major unexpected expense, such as $1,000 for an emergency room visit or car repair,” said a Jan. 23 report from the company.
“We are essentially a paycheck-to-paycheck nation,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.
"

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Post ID: @j9+1jjdbqh3c

I only see half of the individual contributors diligently working. The other half come in late and take long lunch breaks. 1st level managers are always gone or in some meeting that could have been delivered in a PowerPoint. I don’t really know how Directors and Sr Dir create revenue for the company.

I compare that to 25 years ago when there was a greater effort to win as a team. There were 1/3 the amount of analysts and tighter relationships with our wholesale accounts. Less visible hoops to jump through on projects and fewer layers of management adding little value and costing the company a fortune.

It’s unsustainable and it’s been that way for the last 10 years. If consumer spending on discretionary items gets any worse, the next 5 years will be painful. Holiday spending was fantastic I hear, at least in this country.

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Post ID: @ht+1jjdbqh3c

"you do just enough to keep your job"

What happened to bettering oneself? You're going to tank your own individual progress just to "get smart" with Nike? F this company, but don't tank your own progress over it. Learn, be better, take what you can....

But giving up and making myself a less successful person just to "stick it to Nike" is weak character.

I thought we all learned that at around 6 years old?? You're adults right? Not children? Spite is bad; focus on yourself? Because the advice I need to give some of you is the advice I'd give to a child.

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Post ID: @fk+1jjdbqh3c

"you do just enough to keep your job
which is smart since you don't want to use yourself up"

I don't give a twit about Nike, but have some self-respect. Jesus. Do good work because you want to do good work, not because Nike pays you for it. Have some self respect in your effort.

You don't come across as some anti-work hero. You come across as lazy and entitled.

If I ever utter the phrase "Just put in less effort" for any reason, I'd be so disgusted with myself as a man and a human being.

Quit the company. Don't quit yourself.

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Post ID: @fb+1jjdbqh3c

"Nike can continue growing over the long term if it actually creates compelling products that truly resonate with consumers."

its like that movie the office
no incentive to work harder
you do just enough to keep your job
which is smart since you don't want to use yourself up

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Post ID: @dk+1jjdbqh3c

I’ve been with Nike over 12 years. I can tell you the current employees are the weakest they’ve ever been over that period.

People here use to work hard. Now it’s all a bunch of victims. The company is lost.

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Post ID: @ch+1jjdbqh3c

Nike can continue growing over the long term if it actually creates compelling products that truly resonate with consumers. Saturation hasn’t stopped companies like Apple, Microsoft, or Google from achieving growth. Our problems are in pi-s poor leadership and strategic decisions which have also led to a diluted company culture.

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Post ID: @ar+1jjdbqh3c

you are just like any other clothing line now
just more overpriced
these days with high inflation not a good bang for the buck

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Post ID: @am+1jjdbqh3c

NKE's future does not look much like its past.

If the swoosh survives the next five years or so, it will be a much smaller company, focused on a more limited set of products that it can execute well, rather than relying on nostalgia and lazy mass marketing to sell generic products in bulk.

DECK has a $33.2bil market cap. Its stock is up 71% YoY.

ONON, a comparatively tiny Swiss company, already has a $19.5bil market cap after existing for only 15 years. Its stock is up 125% YoY.

NKE is down 27% YoY, and off 55% from ATH. It still has a $110bil market cap despite that, but how long will that last? The numbers don't lie.

Future total headcount at NKE will likely be something like half of its current state.

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Post ID: @ae+1jjdbqh3c

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