From a staff meeting (in Technology):
Unofficially, senior leadership is "softening their stance" on RTO. The internal websites dealing with RTO (Wday and Tworks) have been changed. Gone is the harsh language regarding the consequences of non-compliance with RTO. Newly added is friendlier sounding verbiage about "flexibility". Also gone is some of the id--tic content like descriptions of "water cooler" encounters, etc.
The RTO message now being verbally delivered to IC's (individual contributors) is not the same as the previously delivered communications from the "senior leadership" (much of which has now been removed from the above websites).
Office location assignments are being dictated by CPG, not by the managers of the IC's. Managers have no say in where their people are assigned (I don't know if this is true, but it is what we're being told).
In many cases, managers can't see which office their geographically distant people are assigned, and some of what they can see is incorrect (I can confirm this as the location that my manager showed me from HER perspective is NOT the same as what I see from MY perspective - our group is all over the board. Similar inconsistency is being reported by others, so that appears to be widespread).
Telecommuters are being told "business as usual" and to continue WFH "until senior leadership tells us otherwise". There are no plans at this time to force the RTO/location issue for remote people (I suspect this has more to do with avoidance of generating a burst of severance payments to an unknown number of people in the 40 mile club).
At this time we are told that there are no consequences if you do NOT go to an office, but badge swipes are being tracked (opinion: this is ominous. This gives them the means to come back at some future point with something like "everyone who has never swiped a badge is on the short list for the next round of layoffs").
Scrum masters will be empowered to dictate the physical locations from which employees must join "agile ceremonies", even if the employees are not co-located. This means that IC employees will be taking direction on their physical work location from contractors in many cases. How - and how much - this will be enforced is an open question.
Frankly, some of this stuff sounded stupid to me, but my takeaway is that senior leadership has finally figured out that they have a really big problem, and that they're now dialing back the rhetoric - but that they still want to push towards a pure "in-office" model after the current crisis subsides.
Layoff implications? My opinion is that management wanted voluntary turnover, they pushed hard for it, and by golly they got it. Lots of it. Far more than they wanted. And that the turnover they GOT wasn't the turnover that they WANTED (meaning "good" people left, and "bad" people stayed). I suspect that layoffs will decrease in 2022 until the "leadership" gets a handle on what their staffing situation is. Essentially, they are driving while blindfolded at this time.