Thread regarding Wells Fargo & Co. layoffs

Quiet day on the board, so...

Just for fun, does anyone want to give commentary on whether WFC will break through the 52 week low of $22 before the end of 2020?

I am leaning towards yes, for a couple reasons in no particular order:

  1. Investors don’t like uncertainty and there were only vague answers in yesterday’s earnings call around cost cutting and progress on getting out from under the asset cap. Generally, they said we should be able to offer more clarity next quarter.
  1. Uncertainty around the economy in general regarding the pandemic and elections.
  1. The market isn’t that far from it’s annual high, and WFC isn’t that far from it’s 52 week low, so a big down day in the markets, or a new negative story around the bank could result in a downturn.
  1. We keep missing earning estimates.
  1. Tough environment for financials with low interest rates. Also loan exposure.
  1. It’s not that we won’t start moving higher at some point in the future but I think it could potentially take a few years. In the meantime, people can sell their WFC, take their losses, and potentially make their money back in a different sector.
  1. The dividend was an important factor for many investors. Come to think of it, I don’t remember that even being brought up yesterday.

Thoughts?

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| 1403 views | | 6 replies (last October 16, 2020) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+17rXwFSo

6 replies (most recent on top)

I DO think we will break the through the 52 week low of 22 this year. All it will take is one bad day in the markets, related to the elections or Covid #s rising as we head in to Fall/Winter.

I don’t think we would stay down there though. The stock has been trading comfortably in that 23.50 to 25 range given the current circumstances at the bank and the economy.

I agree with others’ thoughts that we’re not going to see any real upwards stock price improvement for several years. I just saw an analyst from RBC say, given the current interest rates, we are at a disadvantage in relation to our peers with the asset cap limiting our ability to grow our balance sheet. He is thinking 2022 before the cap is lifted.

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Post ID: @1uti+17rXwFSo

Wfc will be a dog for two more years. Those who are patient and backing up the truck at these levels and dollar cost averaging down will be rewarded well , eventually. The franchise is too powerful for that not to happen. Wfc is not deaustche bank lol.

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Post ID: @1glk+17rXwFSo

I remember when Deutsche Bank was trading at $33 then they got into regulatory trouble. They're stock went down to $5.40? It took years of work to get it to stop dropping. It seemed to have bottomed out and is now slowly recovering. They made deep cuts, management shuffled around, they sold businesses, and got out of markets completely. They shrunk themselves to a manageable size and can now start thriving again.

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Post ID: @1khl+17rXwFSo

A merger will never be approved right now and the reason there is no info on lifting the cap is bc it isnt going to happen any time soon. We will be called back in the office or there will be a vaccine before that cap is lifted. I see what is going on there and we are no where near where we should be so just forget it. Further, if CS had any power or connection with the CFPB, he would know what they are thinking and his responses wouldnt be so lacking. With that said, even WF taking a proactive approach with PPP, we investigated after hearing BOA had employees apply for funds fraudulently or misappropriate funds other than for payroll and how is it reported? Like we have 100-plus criminals working here. This is “suspected fraud” not confirmed. We really cant seem to catch a break or right the wrongs.

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Post ID: @arj+17rXwFSo

The brain drain is keeping the price low.

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Post ID: @urf+17rXwFSo

Look at the chart for 10 Year Treasury Yield and overlay that with WFC stock price. WFC seems highly correlated with interest rates. When rates go up, WFC will go up as well. Fed will keep short term rates low for long time, they dont have set longer rates. Market does. When inflation comes, rates will go up too.

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Post ID: @viy+17rXwFSo

CET1 Ratio is 11.4% or somewhere around there. Looks good for a long term hold to me. If they can drive down the expenses, the stock should head north. The problem is that we're everybody's favorite whipping boy so unless we can get out from under the asset cap limits and stop with the unforced errors, it's hard to tell when things will improve - 2022 maybe. See what happens after they get a vaccine and things get back to something like a new normal. Pity we don't have an investment arm - a GS merger would almost make sense for both companies.

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Post ID: @enc+17rXwFSo

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