Debt Load as bad as it gets,
The company does have a tremendous amount of debt as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2019 at almost $161 billion. Surprisingly, debt represents a high level of the company's total market cap, which is $206 billion. Additionally, the company paid out interest expenses of $8.4 billion in 2019.
More alarming is that the company paid out total dividends in 2019 of roughly $14.9 billion on net income of just $13.9 billion. It gives the stock a dividend payout ratio that is above 100%, and that could indicate dividend payments do not rise in the future, or even worse, perhaps fall.
With these high levels of debt and significant interest expenses, the dividend payout ratio could be the primary driver for that high dividend yield. Also, the fear of maintaining that dividend is helping to push that yield to historic highs.
Options Betting Shares Fall
Options traders are currently betting that the recent declines only grow worse. The $31 puts for expiration on June 19 saw their open interest levels rise by around 29,200 open contracts, and the data shows that these contracts traded on the Ask for about $4.50 per contract. For the buyer of these puts to earn a profit, the stock would need to fall to around $26.50, a decline of about 5.7% from its price of approximately $28.10 on March 25.
Meanwhile, the $29 puts for expiration on May 15 saw their open interest levels rise by around 16,000 contracts on March 25. These puts also traded mostly on the ASK and again suggests that they were bought for about $3.20. In this case, the stock would need to fall to around $25.80 by the expiration date to earn a profit. That is a drop of about 8.5% from its current stock price.
Technical Take
The technical chart shows that the stock has been struggling to get above a level of resistance at $29 and above support at $27.35. However, should the stock fall below that support level, it could result in the stock falling even further towards its next level of support at $23.85. But if the stock price should rise above resistance, it could result in the stock price rising to around $31.20.
Risks Are High
The risk during this period is incredibly high, given the heightened levels of volatility, making it very hard to determine what the true motivation of a put buyer is in this case. It could be a trader or investor merely buying puts to protect a long position in the stock or making a real bet that the stock will fall.
For the time being, it is worth noting that AT&T's dividend yield is attractive, but it may also be suggesting an increased risk of the path forward of that dividend. Something worth thinking about for sure.