Could we be in a stealth bear market? On the face of it, the question is bizarre: a bear market is usually defined as a 20% fall from a peak, but the S&P 500 is just over 1% off its all-time high. If you hold the index, you’d laugh at the idea that this is anything other than a bull market, albeit a rather slow one.
Yet almost every other measure suggests a bear market started last year. Dig into the S&P and it is sending a deeply downbeat message, to companies like AT&T.
Without massive intervention, courtesy of the Fed and PPT, markets would be much lower, and are being propped up to keep pension funds solvent. There’s a lot of black swans lurking out there ready to trigger the next downturn: Student loan bubble, housing bubble, auto loan bubble. Take your pick
A lot of the current U.S. financial stress is coming from Trump's tariffs and the retaliation against them.
Being a largely U.S. domestic company, AT&T is much less affected by this dynamic than are many other large companies.
And, although it WOULD be hit in any crash, AT&T would likely also be seen as a dividend play and domestic "safe haven" compared to other companies with far more exposure to China.
There's a large split in what people believe to be factual reality, based on the extreme differences between conservative and "mainstream" media reporting and opinion.
This sharp difference means a larger-than-normal number of people are simply wrong about what has happened, therefore have a diminished ability to predict the future with any accuracy.
The stock market thrives on this, because it makes s—ers out of those believing the less accurate media.
Gravity can only be defied for so long, however, so the people believing garbage are going to be making bad bets that will turn out to be called in quite suddenly.
@cwq "Don't Fight the Fed" You're spot on and many of us have made a lot of money in our 401k because of QE!! Possibly another 25 basis points (.25%) next week?
The Federal Reserve is hard at work resuming the printing of money (Quantitative Easing #4) in order to maintain an asset bubble in stocks. They do it by keeping interest rates low, by manipulating the debt markets. What they do is use this printed money, purchase Treasuries and put it on the books of the Fed. With that debt removed from the debt markets, there is less debt chasing funding and interest rates stay lower. Lower interest rates generally result in larger P/E multiples.
The policy is good for dividend paying stocks. It's also good for debt laden companies, because interest rates stay low.
OP - Not sure why you plagiarized "forexlive" word-for-word at https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/sp500-could-we-be-in-a-stealth-bear-market-jaw-drops-20191022." You want credit for what the Eamonn Sheridan, the true author wrote. Next time refer to the websit. It's not nice to steal other people's work.
There is no general right or wrong. The change in the market depends upon what your goal is and when you need money. Down markets are useful for more buys and dividend reinvestments. When they go up, money is made. In a balanced portfolio, like 50-50 stocks-to-bonds, it's an opportunity to sell some bonds and buy at the lower equity value. When the stocks pop back up, sell and rebalance to 50-50 buy acquiring bonds. This eliminates risk and trying to predict the market. If your a day trader, throw this info out the window because it doesn't apply.
So.....if your financial guy... figured thing will be going south in 6 monts, the downturn already started, because data documenting the state of the economy is not immediately available and then takes time to accurately analyze. On average, a recognition lag lasts between six and ten months.
He lied to you, LOL
Recessions happen on average once every 6 years. So EVERYBODY is on the edge of there seat waiting for a sniff of when to began to shift assets. We are in the 10th year of a bull market. "almost every other measure"? Is pretty vague. Perhaps you could expound on that. Just returned from a conversation from my financial guy....they suggested we are good for the next 6-12 months.