To paraphrase Reagan, here we go again. Our stock hits 12 month highs, completely due to our genius management, so they pat themselves on their backs until they get blisters.
But this isn’t my first rodeo, so I’ll make some predictions here:
At the annual meeting, watch management show a historical stock graph and brag this is due to their strategic plan “coming to fruition” with dispositions, portfolio optimization, and, left unsaid, executive brilliance.
Watch 1st quarter costs (especially capital) closely. Management doesn’t comprehend how much costs go up when crude oil prices go up. First quarter will be the start of a bad 2018 year regarding costs.
Watch for executive changes this summer. When the stock price jumps up, executives leave and lock in their stock options with their special three year severance packages.
At the annual meeting, watch for no accountability/mention of zero actions on ECO, no slides of benchmarking vs. our peers on costs or manpower metrics per BOE, no post-audits of exploration, and no talk of deep water.
Watch management talk of people assets (which they really have no way to defend with morale at an all-time low) and Safety/Environmental (which management micromanages to such a degree that if they dropped 20% of the paperwork, productivity would increase 80%).
Watch them brag/explain resources/reserves while we know the true metric is earnings: remind me again how much ATNI our company has cumulatively made since the split?