We just went through a surplus and leadership is saying no more for our group this year. Truth or fiction?
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I would rely on the truthfulness that you've experienced in the past. If they have been truthful in the past, they're probably being truthful now, with the caveat that maybe they're not being told the truth from higher up.
But don't ignore another measure. If people are sitting around, twiddling their thumbs, a layoff is possible. Lack of work is the top reason for layoffs.
Let's try some logic. They can now execute a surplus in 3 months from the point of notification to the last day on the payroll. This means they can do 4 per year. However, it doesn't make sense to hit a particular group back to back. Why not just double the percentage on the first one? My guess is that your group will have two per year with a gap between each. This will allow you to adjust workloads or reduce work efforts ; and will continue through 2019.