The Truth is that what we are seeing from Chevron is the inevitable result of having an accountant instead of an engineer at the helm. Watson listens far more to the analysts and Wall St than he does to those of us who actually understand the oil and gas business. O&G is cyclical, more so than most other industries, and while everyone says that, only those of us who have lived in the business for all of our careers really understand what that means. It means that you often have to take a contrarian view and, sometimes, deliver the hard message to your shareholders that, no, they will not be getting a fat dividend for a while, because you need to invest that money into your base business right now. It also means that you don't waste a year of everyone's time and productivity in a painful, prolonged downsizing effort. From a business perspective, I agree that some areas of Chevron, particularly the corporate offices in San Ramon and Houston, had developed a fairly thick layer of fat. However, that is some pretty experienced fat, and, rather than paying for limousines to ferry those folks home from the office because they are distraught after you fired them, they could be far better distributed to some of those failing projects that could really benefit from the help, such as Gorgon, Big Foot, Wheatstone, and a dozen others. Btw, on that note, isn't it funny how the analysts never seemed to talk about or even notice EGTL? It slipped under the radar, somehow, in one of the most impressive vanishing acts that I've ever seen. 15 years and 12 billion USD to build the most complex plant in the company's history, out in the middle of a Nigerian jungle, that may someday produce 30k bbls/day of diesel? And it's STILL not fully online? I don't even need a cocktail napkin to do the math on that one. No wonder Kirkland was pushed out, as that was his pet project.
The Truth is that now is the time to start investing, not cutting the very talent that brought you this far to begin with. Chevron is still sitting on a mountain of cash from the last decade of sustained record commodity prices. GE Oil & Gas, for example, is snapping up companies right and left. Remember the 90s and $12 dollar oil? Drilling rigs were stacked up in the yards, and investment all but dried up. But, what did ExxonMobil do? They went on a drilling frenzy, because they could get the rigs and the best talent for a fraction of what Chevron has been spending for it over the past decade. As a result, XOM's mega-projects of the mid to late 90s came to fruition just as commodity prices took off. Crazy, right? Yeah, like a fox...
The Truth is that in five years, Chevron will want all these people back, and then some, right about the time that the the Board is handing Watson his gold watch and even more golden parachute. Well, guess what boys and girls? They won't be coming back, especially all those bright, young millennial horizons kids that the company invested five years of training in, and who never expected to spend their careers with one company anyway. Chevron's next CEO had better be one tough, bold, and highly experienced oil man or woman, because anyone less will simply continue riding the downward spiral.
The Truth is that Chevron still hasn't proven that they can deliver mega-projects to production. Gorgon is already a year overdue, and it will be a not-small miracle if it even comes online within the next 12 months. Even Chevron's NOJV projects, like ALNG, haven't delivered, and have turned into the butt of the industry's jokes. And, God help them if they have a major leak at CDB, and tons of H2S go rolling down the mountain into a city of 100,000 people. You thought a handful of management staff losing their passports in Brazil over a subsea leak was a big deal? Remember Bhopal, folks? I'm sure the Chinese government will understand...
And, finally, for all of you Chevroid PGPA trolls who are posting on this site about how great your company is, The Real Truth is that Chevron is simply turning itself into an attractive takeover candidate. There is no other explanation for the current executive decisions being made. Nobody, and I mean nobody, regardless of ego, money, power, or fame is that incompetent. Yes, sir, there is indeed a method to the madness. And, yes, Chevron was a great company a few years ago, back when people who actually had an opinion and delivered real results were rewarded for it, but all that is gone now, so wake up and smell the litter box folks. For those of you who are left, take my advice: when you are not submitting glowing CSOC Feedback to your boss, filling your Outlook calendars with nonexistent meetings, padding your PMPs with a bunch of b.s. that you haven't actually done, or walking the corridors of the ivory towers singing "Everything is Awesome", you should be praying that XOM really does take the bait, and start learning about OI rather than OE (look it up, it's on XOM's external website). That may be the only option left to end the suckfest charade, and save what's left of San Ramon's failed attempt to stop the bleeding.
One day you'll thank me for the advice. You're welcome.
Oh, look at this. XOM is up 7% over the last month? Well, how the hell about that?