Thread regarding Humana Inc. layoffs

Detailed analysis of Humana Stock

Here is my analysis.

Pros

  • Humana has been doing the Medicare business for a long time.
  • Has a necessary infrastructure developed to serve the customer

Cons

  • A company or institution with a rigid system for making decisions and enacting changes
  • Incompetent leadership at most levels

What Humana needs badly to turn around before it can attract investors

  • Cut the cost significantly and run as a startup
  • Humana needs to reduce the cost and provide a better service
  • Win customer confidence by delivering better value for the service
  • Why would a company need 67400 employees to deliver the same services? They significantly have to reduce their costs by reducing the employee count.
  • Make major changes to the leadership at all levels.
  • Bring in young and bold people in leadership with a customer-centric perspective.

Analyst Downgrades

  1. UBS analyst Kevin Caliendo Lowered the price target - From $380 to $250
  2. Piper Sandler analyst Jessica Tassan - from $392 to $274
  3. Deutsche Bank analyst George Hill from $349 to $250
  4. Oppenheimer analyst Michael Wiederhorn from $400 to $280
  5. BofA lowered Price Target to $247 From $376
  6. Leerink Partners from $400 to $250
  7. Stephens from $400 to $250
  8. Wolfe Research price target - $342 From $400 (BEFORE the NEWS - 12 days ago)
  9. RBC price target - $385 From $400 (BEFORE the NEWS - 30 days ago)
  10. JPMorgan Adjusts Price Target on Humana to $396 From $332

And many more downgrades even before the news.

Overall, the health sector is getting softer (Sector Warning)

Some news (Humana specific warnings)
BofA- Humana's 2026 Results Could Take 'Significant' Hit From Potential Medicare Star Rating (For People who don't know why their is a significant downfall)

CONCLUSION

  • Humana stock and overall Healthcare sector is going through lot of uncertainties.
  • USA Election is adding more uncertainties
  • Humana is significantly overvalued since their star rating is cut to 3.5. This will result in loss of lot of business overall.
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| 1081 views | | 8 replies (last October 6, 2024) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+1uQIae6n

8 replies (most recent on top)

It's not that bad because wall streets can keep shorting this stock to pile up profits next year until 2026's star rating deduction becomes effective to really hurt its earnings from decrease in Medicare bonus payments. Medicare is Humana's 95%+ business now.

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Post ID: @5wrw+1uQIae6n

Humana Medicare Part C has been on the ropes for a while and near bankruptcy as have other Medicare Part C providers. The comon thread among them is that they mispriced the product. They have to raise the rates as well as cut the fat and expenses.

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Post ID: @1cns+1uQIae6n

Humana is just a middle-man eating govt commission.

I would not be surprised if Amazon or other companies would replace them in the blink of an eye.

They keep spending money on technology without having to create any new features. It's running so inefficient that startup like CLOV is giving them competition, isn't that embarrassment?

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Post ID: @1bda+1uQIae6n

The government pays for Medicare claims.

So if you are getting poor services then it's a greed of Insurance companies and government to blame.

On a lighter note
$175 Billion for Ukraine.
$150.7 Billion for illegal aliens.
But $750 for Americans.

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Post ID: @1xnr+1uQIae6n

Yet my mom is on Humana Medicare Advantage and last week they decided they no longer want to pay for her care. So they take her money every month from the only income she has (SSA) and now say....yeah well, we don't see the value in continuing paying for anything but the two cheap dr-gs she is on. So now I have to pay for her care out of her meager income. Yep, looking at switching to a company that actually cares about people. Wait, is there one?

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Post ID: @1evx+1uQIae6n

Anyone can start insurance company, specifically selling govt Medicare policies. That’s what CLOV did.

Govt Medicare policies are sold heavily by agents, who sold that for heavy commission.

One makes more money on getting new customers and one gets less for a recurring customer.

Why would agents selling Medicare policies want to sell bad policies to their clients? This agents will now begin the process of switching the insurance companies.

There is lot going on. This are the known risks of companies doing business heavily with government agencies only.

Humana had a great opportunity to establish as a full blown health insurance.

Believe me or not there is a lot more uncertainty involved. Risk is more compared to reward and that’s why heavy downgrades.

Only way Humana can survive this storm is to make a significant employee count and offer value for the service. Competition for getting govt business is heating up and it is only going to get worse from here.

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Post ID: @1rxm+1uQIae6n

I honestly do not care what Wall Street thinks of Humana stock. Humana could take the 1.8 billion hit without mitigating losses and STILL make profit in 2026. I don’t care if Joe from JP Morgan gets his estimated return.

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Post ID: @1cxj+1uQIae6n

Cut the cost significantly and run as a startup

Why would a company need 67400 employees to deliver the same services? They significantly have to reduce their costs by reducing the employee count.

These 2 points are a joke. Unless Humana has a significant (or any) loss in membership, there are still over 8 million members that need to be served.

Humana, in a lot of areas, is already running at a low head count, those are insane points.

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Post ID: @1lhg+1uQIae6n

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