I know two people tenured people one who was pushing 35+ years and another close to 30.
The 35+ one was impacted a few cycles ago, super nice person very personable but the work has passed them by. I don’t think they ever had any intentions of retiring which is a testament to who they are but in my department they were reserved to light task. The new leadership ended up severancing them, I was pretty sad about it but I think this was probably the best situation for them. If they had retired on their own, they wouldn’t have gotten a massive package that they gotten. Sure it’s probably unexpected but I can’t imagine they weren’t prepared for this moment.
For the other tenure person, every cycle they hope to get let go and never do. They basically are disgruntled at this time and have been for the past 8 years. Financially they can probably retire early but are hoping someone to show them the door. They also have no intentions leaving. They’ve told me several times, I really hope I get let go.
So make of it what you want, everyone’s story is different. The only difference is we get to know them and go through some of the same trenches.