Just cause the Fed indicated they would cut rates, doesn't mean it's going to happen right away. Most likely sometime in May or June if Headline inflation continues to decline cause Core inflation remains sticky at 4%. Remember, the interest rates are still high. Anything above 2% will be considered high. And Feb policies have a lag effect. Covid funds have finally run out (hundreds laidoff from Washington's Department of Health), and pandemic savings have also run out leaving people with debt (high interest rate payments) on their credit cards. At this moment, majority of the people working in USA still have jobs, but as inflation decreases then unemployment will increase. Many companies are starting to layoff workers and many companies have a hiring freeze due to the upcoming AI technology which will start to replace jobs such as financial professionals, software engineering jobs, creative design jobs, routine jobs, even lawyers, etc. Amazon recently laid off hundreds of works who were working on Alexa because AI replaced those jobs (google it). And AI is going to pick up starting in 2024. Those jobs that get replaced by an AI application (tool), won't ever be coming back.
I'm not sure if a recession will occur as long as many people have jobs (enough earnings) where they can pay the bills (even if it's the minimum required amount). But if corporate earnings start to decline causing more layoffs (and not enough hiring) which would cause debt accumulation for people living in USA which leads to an increase in crime rate. And then there are many geopolitical issues between countries. And OPEC+ is going to cut 2 million barrels of oil per day in 2024 instead of the current 1 billion barrels a day, which could cause oil prices to increase. Also, USA Special Purpose Reserves (USA oil reserved used during high inflation 2022-2023) have not been refilled. And then there is still student loans, CRE (commercial real estate) loans of 1.5Trillion due by 2025, increasing USA debt where every American owns $200,000 and don't even know it since the can of debt is being kicked down to future generations, etc. etc. etc. But the stock market continues to increase as if live was really great as long as the dollar can be printed. However, BRICS and CBDC currency is getting popular by the day. And 56% of Americans have a literacy of a sixth grader. Happy New Year!