A few different and unrelated things to say here so I’m going to bullet point my post.
- Nike said severance costs will be $400M to $450M. Even using the most generous assumptions of $400M and six-figure packages for all (LOL!) that is a MINIMUM of 2,000 people. Don’t believe me? Do the math yourself. That is a lot of money for severance which can only mean a lot of people.
- There hasn’t been a WARN notice yet. I expect to see that right after January 1. Unless Nike has cleverly figured out a workaround. I wouldn’t put anything past them.
- I’ve always thought “JD was brought in to be the bad hatchet man after which a Nike lifer will take the CEO role.” I still believe that. After the largest layoff in Nike history in 2024 I think HON will be coronated.
- While I don’t want to see anyone lose their job Nike employee numbers have been bloated for a long time. 15,000+ corporate employees is way too many.
- When layoffs begin don’t expect it to make any sense. I learned that between 2017 and 2020 as I saw well-respected, well-liked, hard-working people tossed aside like last week’s garbage. I lost track of how many times I said to myself “Wait, they let XXXXX go??? He/She was a rockstar and is still badly needed. That doesn’t make ANY sense!” I’d guess Nike has some set of criteria for selecting people for layoffs but I’m not sure even AI could figure out what that formula is. It did seem to me that having tenure of more than 10 years put a target on a lot of peoples’ backs. Then again I saw a number of <10 year employees let go so who knows. Whatever the case NO ONE should think “They can’t or won’t get rid of me. I’m too valuable, well-liked, needed, whatever.” Trust me…in a company with tens of thousands of employees no single person is irreplaceable or that important. Nike existed before you arrived. It will still exist if you are let go.
- All of that said I expect “middle managers” to get hit hardest. I also think this round of layoffs will impact orgs that have historically been immune to layoff losses. For example I’ve never heard of anyone in Nike Aviation (yes that’s an actual org) get let go. I think this time no orgs will be sparred.
- Ask yourself honestly “How much of my job could be automated if someone just put some thought and elbow grease into it?” Because I know of A LOT of roles within Nike that genuinely don’t need as much of a human touch as they get. Even if only part of your job could be automated that may mean Nike doesn’t need as many people doing it. Nike is already behind the times when it comes to leveraging AI and other tech to perform any number of roles and tasks. I’d imagine the consultants have informed Nike of this and asked “Why are you paying XXXXX six-figures with of salary and benefits when 50%+ of his/her job could be automated, consolidated or just gotten rid of?”
- As a reminder it’s never a good idea to invest too much of your identity into a job or company. With previous layoffs the people I saw who took it hardest were the ones with the Swoosh license plate covers, the ones who thought their loyalty, long hours and eating & breathing everything Swoosh were buying them reciprocal loyalty, and the ones who never imagined ever again working at any other company. When you walk into a conference room and are told “We’re sorry but today is your last day here” - sometimes after many years of insanely dedicated service - that’s when the realization hits you that it was ALWAYS just a job at a large corporation. At that point all those years of fun offsites, parties, bonding with coworkers, and thinking “This is home for me” are gone in moments when Security escorts you out the door as if you’re some miscreant who snuck on campus. It’s humiliating.
- Good news is 95%+ of you won’t be let go. This time. Except we all know that large layoffs have a long lasting negative impact on morale. That isn’t just my opinion. I once read a study claiming that mass layoffs have a long term measurable impact on productivity, retention and how people broadly feel about working at a company. So there’s that to look forward to!
- Regardless of any impact to your own job you should always be thinking “What would I do if I didn’t work here?” Because even if your job is saved there’s something to be said for leaving the madness behind and doing something else. When you work at Nike long enough you sort of forget that there are a lot of other great companies where you can make your mark. Hopefully not too many people need to learn this the hard way.