Well folks, it is that time - the endgame has begun.
To quote Nine Inch Nails:
"We think we climb so high, All up the backs we've condemned, We face our consequence, This is the beginning of the end"
Just purely from his resume, Bryan looks like a decent pick for SpinCo. Coming up in sales and medical consumables I think is a good thing to drive SpinCo's future growth.
The board has made clear Monish is next in line to bury... I mean lead RemainCo.
Based on this I'm updating my predictions:
- The Spin will with high certainty happen, the date is the only open question now. (Q2?)
- A Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing for RemainCo is near certain, 95%+ chance.
- A Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing by RemainCo is a very small, <10%, but now conceivable possibility.
My highest odds, but speculative, outcome is this:
- Spin happens
- Monish sells and spins off as much of RemainCo as he can in under 12 months. I could see another 2 divisions worth of business being sold off.**
- Once the fire sale is over, Monish declares Chapter 11, ditches the lawsuit liability and the new 3M is born. New 3M has around $15B in annual revenue after sell-offs and sales erosion.
My advice for 3Mers.
- If you can get into SpinCo, do it. It is a lifeboat off the Titanic.
- If you are destined for RemainCo - be aggressively looking for a new job. I don't care what rank, which retirement plan, or how 'high potential' you are. Unless you are Monish, you are not safe.
- From reading above one can probably guess what I think 3M stock is worth.
On a personal note, I've found my lifeboat and it isn't SpinCo. I'll hang around still to give what advice I can. Best of luck to you all.
** I'd start by trying to sell off TSD, IMPD, and maybe non-fluoro AdMD. A big stretch would be to try and get CBG mostly sold off as a group or packaging AAD, CHIMD, ASD as a group.