Thread regarding 3M layoffs

The beginning of the end

Well folks, it is that time - the endgame has begun.

To quote Nine Inch Nails:
"We think we climb so high, All up the backs we've condemned, We face our consequence, This is the beginning of the end"

Just purely from his resume, Bryan looks like a decent pick for SpinCo. Coming up in sales and medical consumables I think is a good thing to drive SpinCo's future growth.

The board has made clear Monish is next in line to bury... I mean lead RemainCo.

Based on this I'm updating my predictions:

  • The Spin will with high certainty happen, the date is the only open question now. (Q2?)
  • A Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing for RemainCo is near certain, 95%+ chance.
  • A Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing by RemainCo is a very small, <10%, but now conceivable possibility.

My highest odds, but speculative, outcome is this:

  • Spin happens
  • Monish sells and spins off as much of RemainCo as he can in under 12 months. I could see another 2 divisions worth of business being sold off.**
  • Once the fire sale is over, Monish declares Chapter 11, ditches the lawsuit liability and the new 3M is born. New 3M has around $15B in annual revenue after sell-offs and sales erosion.

My advice for 3Mers.

  • If you can get into SpinCo, do it. It is a lifeboat off the Titanic.
  • If you are destined for RemainCo - be aggressively looking for a new job. I don't care what rank, which retirement plan, or how 'high potential' you are. Unless you are Monish, you are not safe.
  • From reading above one can probably guess what I think 3M stock is worth.

On a personal note, I've found my lifeboat and it isn't SpinCo. I'll hang around still to give what advice I can. Best of luck to you all.

** I'd start by trying to sell off TSD, IMPD, and maybe non-fluoro AdMD. A big stretch would be to try and get CBG mostly sold off as a group or packaging AAD, CHIMD, ASD as a group.

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| 4321 views | | 17 replies (last August 25, 2023) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+1oeQGRdh

17 replies (most recent on top)

Honestly I can't really advise joining either company at this point. I just got laid off of my new IT position at SpinCo there after 3 weeks. No warning, no indication of what I did wrong, no reviews, nothing. I can't forsee either remainCo or SpinCo lasting very long at all. Nobody seems to have any indication of what is going on, who is doing what, etc. I don't see how a company like this can last

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Post ID: @3nyk+1oeQGRdh

Varys, thanks for taking the time to answer the question about pensions.

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Post ID: @1qln+1oeQGRdh

"@varys i think ur self inflated self image is starting to crack. The face that u want to hang here after leaving is pathetic! May your life be eventful."

Well done Varys...... struck a high level nerve deep within the heart of the toxicity that is contributing heavily to the sinking ship. Bravo and godspeed.

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Post ID: @1vko+1oeQGRdh

Thanks for the kind words. Maybe in a few months maybe I'll do an "Ask me Anything" thread.

I think the comments of a new 3M around 2026 or soon thereafter are probably right.

@hid+1oeQGRdh

I'm don't know the laws that govern pension buyouts, but my guess is:

  • Current employees - Possible, but unlikely. The odds SpinCo keeps a pension isn't zero, but it isn't much higher than that. For RemainCo my guess is that they announce a pension freeze in the second half of 2024. (i.e. they will quit adding to people's pension funds and move portfolio 1 and 2 people to portfolio 3 for future funding)
  • Retirees - No chance. My understanding is that money is mostly or entirely off 3M's books already. (They buy annuities for people's pensions when they retire.)
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Post ID: @swl+1oeQGRdh

Varys-
Do you think there is any possibility that Remainco would buy out pensions of current employees?
How about retirees?
Best of luck to you

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Post ID: @hid+1oeQGRdh

Varys, congrats on escaping the Titanic and thanks for all the insightful commentary. Always enjoy reading your comments.

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Post ID: @art+1oeQGRdh

Varys -

Congrats for finding a way to get off the Titanic. I keep hearing of people I know who are top performers being laid off. It has not been easy for them to find a new job.

I appreciate the information and insights you have provided to this group. Most of us are sad, angry and scared and yours has been the voice of reason.

As for Spinco, I am glad to see someone not from 3M as the leader. My concern for Spinco is the fact many of the other leaders come from 3M and there is no way in my opinion to change how they will lead. I fear Spinco be the same toxic and abusive culture as 3M but with a different name.

Also, there will be no money to do what needs to be done. 3M did not just trim fat. 3M cut into the bone of every business and the healing will take time. Sometimes the wound never heals.

Just a few thoughts! Good luck Varys!

I

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Post ID: @sgi+1oeQGRdh

Thanks for hanging around, Varys. I’m a fan

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Post ID: @muu+1oeQGRdh

Well if NIN said it… what an absolute joke!

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Post ID: @qyd+1oeQGRdh

Remember last year when MR told us to be patient on the pension decision. Did you believe that? Do you still believe that the pension decision has not already been made for Remainco and the spin?

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Post ID: @inj+1oeQGRdh

If you do leave take your pension as a lump sum - I don’t think it will be there over the long haul!

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Post ID: @umf+1oeQGRdh

Varys is right. This is the beginning of the end. Pension freeze, more job eliminations, stock price plummet, spin that has inflated value, more gas lighting from HR, dividend cut, attempts to spin more businesses, continued bad news from our 2 major lawsuits, leadership continues to declare we are headed in right direction, more job eliminations, greater recognition from investors that Remainco will not have sufficient cashflow to satisfy billions of dollars in liability, then Chapter 11. The end. When Remainco emerges from reorganization 2026-2029 there is hope.

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Post ID: @sci+1oeQGRdh

@yzs+1oeQGRdh

I'm not going to give specific advice, I don't know anyone's specific situation to give it intelligently.

What I will say:

  • $200 isn't happening again in the foreseeable future, I got mostly closer to $240 and I'm glad I did.
  • Today I think 3M stock is really worth the value of SpinCo plus dividends for a year-ish after spin. Until the SpinCo financials get finalized it is hard to put a specific value on SpinCo.
  • Dividends will get reduced for sure at Spin. 3M will rightly use Spin as the excuse and save a lot of cash. I don't think it will go to zero until BK. In fact I would say cutting dividends to zero would be a signal for near-immediate BK.

@ubq+1oeQGRdh

My self image is fine, I know I'm just a squeaky little cog in a very large machine. I've spent decades (plural) trying to make 3M and the World just a tiny little bit better. You will forgive me if I continue trying in my own way. My life is quite eventful these days thanks for asking.

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Post ID: @dhy+1oeQGRdh

@varys i think ur self inflated self image is starting to crack. The face that u want to hang here after leaving is pathetic! May your life be eventful.

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Post ID: @ubq+1oeQGRdh

Remainco will be wrapped up by 2026

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Post ID: @oax+1oeQGRdh

@Varys, what advice would you give to retirees still holding considerable shares of 3M stock? My father was McNerney'd in the early aughts. He's enjoyed the dividends as a very healthy income supplement for the past 20 years. He unfortunately didn't heed my advice to sell once it was hanging in the $225 - 250 range. Now he gripes about the share price and says that if it ever gets above $200 again he'll be sure to sell. It's more likely to hit $20 than to ever sniff $200 again. If/when will dividends be KO'd?

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Post ID: @yzs+1oeQGRdh

im sticking around Vary's, think you are correct on a most levels there, but I honestly think there is a solid five years left in RemainCo even with the BK threats, I am in mid 40's and have gave my all for the last 21 years to this company.

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Post ID: @qwk+1oeQGRdh

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