Summary
Truist Financial's management has failed to deliver on the promises of the SunTrust deal, resulting in four downward revisions in four months and damaging its credibility.
Another Guidance Cut, Another Hit To Credibility
Management once again lowered guidance for the remainder of the year, lowering the revenue growth target from 3% to 1%-2%. Management blamed higher deposit betas and weaker loan growth, but I find the notion that these drivers are "surprising" to be hard to accept - I've been writing for close to 18 months that deposit betas in this phase of the cycle where likely to be higher than expected, and management has had plenty of time to adjust.
I'm frankly more troubled by the expense guidance, as managed increased its opex target to the high end of the range. At this point, then, Truist could well top out as the highest of its peer group in terms of opex growth in 2023 (around 7%) and operating leverage is actually looking negative at this point.
Management has absolutely not delivered on the promised synergies of the SunTrust deal in my view - the efficiency ratio is almost 900bp above the target given at the time of the deal (around four years ago now), and while management is talking about taking steps to drive improved operating leverage, it sounds like little more than "trust us" at this point, as management's comments suggests they're only now starting to formulate a new plan.
Truist's second quarter results missed expectations, with lackluster net interest income and shortfalls in fee-based income and operating expenses (and operating leverage).
Management once again lowered revenue and operating leverage guidance, and it is debatable as to whether management has a concrete plan to drive necessary improvement.
The valuation of TFC shares looks low now below $40, but there's a real "value trap" risk as the company must start executing better.