Buddy, sometimes you just can't tell.
I've seen 'slackers' who are well connected with leaders get preferential treatment.
And I've seen quiet worker bees get shown the door because they didn't have the right people looking out for them from above.
I'd be ok with employee separations if it was genuinely low performers. But in the truest sense. Employees that were told that their is a problem, given an improvement plan, and then were not able to make the necessary corrections.
During this recent round of terminations, I knew if people that had been exceptional performers for decades and all of the sudden received one review that said they had not met expectations - nothing more specific than that - and were let go without any performance improvement plan.
I'll always believe that in this current economy / climate, these recent (and future) terminations are targeting highly compensated / pensioners / higher medical costs / older / etc team members. But since that's mostly not legal to call those things out, they'll just say 'poor performance' and then show them the door.
The comment about 'if you have to ask - then you know the answer's isn't entirely true. I think it applies if you know that your leader(s) haven't been happy with your work lately or ongoing. But even if you're a stellar performer, you may still be targeted for all those other reasons.