It’s the economy stupid!
Economy is going to slow significantly - whatever your political leaning there is zero doubt about that - it’s already underway. What does this mean? Well when the economy was doing ok (last few years) there were large layoffs. Now they have a great excuse to chop more:
- Budgets for most teams account for a 20% labor reduction in 2025. Where BUs have large customer facing roles (ie contact centers) 20% is the MINIMUM. That’s so the SVPs of those areas can get massive bonus payouts at your expense. JP and his AI push is gonna eat you all alive
- Regardless as to how #1 goes, there will be another 5-7% RIF before EOY 2025. Why? so SVPs and up can get even larger bonus again. If anyone wasn’t already aware of this people like John Gibblets get massive payouts for cutting expenses (ie jobs)
- The upcoming recession will allow them to make it sound like it’s due to economic reasons. They buy billions back on stock each year. It’s not. It’s to boost the stock
- Don’t expect much bonus for this fiscal year. You’ll already start to hear things in Q3 like ‘market conditions’ ‘economic outlook’ etc. Bonus pool will be massively reduced
- For those of you with options vesting in 2026 good luck on coming out ahead
TLDR: The sinking economy will provide even more excuses to cut heads and offshore to India. NOONE is safe. Get out asap