Expect Extreme Layoffs in November, $519 million Left and most likely will be paid out over the next few weeks

This summer there was a rumor of 1 billion being floated around by the Oracle execs for severance packages. From the latest 10q we know that number was finalized at $888 million. Plans are in place and it's up to figure out what they are.

This summer in August the layoff number was approximately $369 Million, and we know $519 million remains. The big question is when and where exactly will the layoffs take place. I expect the lions share of the layoffs to be in November as Oracle has pretty much admitted failure in OCI and is looking for a Multi-cloud structure. The expectation is to run Oracle software in other clouds much like Heatwave (MySQL) in AWS and Azure.

When?
I believe the Layoffs will be sporadic, some have started now some will happen November 1st and some will be in mid November. I don't see a reason to wait until May except for maybe the sales Account Executives. AE's are a sunk cost and base salary can be covered if they close anything of substance.

For the rest that means get ready! Start interviewing and prepare as best you can.

Who is targeted?

If you have been with Oracle for some time and you have a relatively high salary and you are a top performer, double so if you have travel expenses.
You are a recent hire for OCI or some other division not directly related to running database products in the cloud.
If you live in the Bay Area, Seattle or another expensive tech hub. Oracle is now head quartered in Austin Texas. I expect this layoff to shift momentum and employees to Texas.

Why? Oracle OCI is not selling and it's time to go into maintenance, survival mode.

What is new is that the OCI "Golden Child" is now seen as the "Red Headed Stepchild." The DNA test came back from the market and the chid only has 2% of the "winning" market share. Clearly not Oracle DNA. All bets are off as that was the big bet Oracle was making on its future.

https://www.crn.com/news/cloud/oracle-cloudworld-2022-ellison-says-an-internet-of-clouds-is-imperative

In his hour-plus-long keynote at CloudWorld 2022—held in person in Las Vegas and streamed online—LE said enterprises want an “internet of clouds” to facilitate more customer choice and prevent vendor lock-in.
He made his usual boast-that Oracle’s MySQL HeatWave offering is faster than Amazon Web Services’ Aurora. And he gave database services rival Snowflake an uncharacteristic compliment in working with multiple cloud vendors first.

Previous comments from LE on existing legacy product acquisitions:

Jun 22, 2019 — LE explains Oracle's restructuring and layoffs: Some of our business units are 'melting away' and 'we just don't care'.

What caught me off guard was that included on premises sales of Oracle Database licenses. It still does. So what does this mean? It means OCI is on the list too. It means the new golden child is selling MySQL HeatWave and Oracle database licenses in other clouds. I expect a lot of work to be done to get this working for things like Oracle RAC and Exadata. But I do expect license changes (cost effective changes) to get Oracle Enterprise edition running in AWS, GCP and Azure as soon as possible.

I used to work at Oracle (5 years) and I predicted my own layoff. It was quite easy, I was a top performer that had a lot of travel expenses in a division that was no longer in favor. I've made several anonymous predictions and now branded myself as Harbinger. Because Iw as able to see the writing on the wall I was able to plan very well and had a job lined up after receiving my severance. No hard feelings. I just want to help others plan as well. Especially now with the economy and the world in the state its in.

This post is based on my own conjecture and not insider information as of today. I do have some phone calls to some buddies still working at Oracle to get their view points. I will update this post as things develop. I will make a new post if I have substantial change in information.

Original posts: @OP+1jkBKFBp, @OP+1iZo94uF, @OP+1iPdT0Uf and @OP+1gPG2i8V. I've been pretty close on my predictions in the past.

Best of luck! Get ready!

Comment! It's anonymous!

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I foresaw it too. I think eventually, Oracle will just be a DB provider and applications while customers by them. I don't see much innovation in the applications either and once Oracle decides to let them ride as well - because they don't care - those people are going to be without a job. He Cerner as a way to get into health care applications. The issue is going to be fixing it. Also, EPIC has the larger installations. What happens when EPIC decides to compete more where Cerner is? It would make sense to try to have a more seamless interaction across all health care companies, hospitals and providers. It is probably a matter of time before that acquisition fails too. This is what happens when you are not innovative anymore. Just buying pieces. I remember an application in GBU where Oracle got rid of the key people who knew it. Left a skeleton crew and real innovation was difficult. Still was running on premise.

The WARN notice is a joke when it comes to Remote workers. Companies don't have to report layoffs if the are not a large office site.

Most layoff numbers are kept secret that way.

LJE spent 95% of his entire keynote talking about healthcare.

What else could he talk about? OCI being a total failure is not a good topic for Oracle Cloud World. He did talk about OCI Gen 1 being a total failure he had to fight to ki-l.

The reason he didn't say anything about OCI Gen 2 is left to the viewers.

The writing is on the wall.

LJE spent 95% of his entire keynote talking about healthcare. Cerner is also noted as a merger and the missing piece. It’s clear this is the priority and LJE notes the mission is about connecting to partners on something bigger than themselves. It seems less around beating others in cloud but leading in a specific industry sector where it’s enabling national infrastructure than simply the same corporate clients. It’s the next momentum shift.

In theory: if you’re not in health or centered around that in some fashion, or in an area of clear revenue growth (ie NetSuite/ERP) then it’s likely your job will eventually be deprioritized.

I heard of a 10% cut before New Years, and a further 10% across the board in the New Year.

For what its worth I did reach out to some old colleagues still at Oracle at the director level. They expect layoffs in November to finish before Thanksgiving. But not all of it will be November, they expect more after the holidays.

Note sure if its 70% November 30% next year? I still think the majority will be first two weeks of November.

I think you’re on the money. I feel like people saw it coming, but as it’s happening, it seems to be much larger and much more continual than we could have imagined. A bit hyperbolic but I wouldn’t be surprised if entire teams and products just melted away.

Updated Notes, while checking for warn notices. Oracle doesn't really hit the 60 day mark when doing a warn notice, My guess is the severance package usually includes 30 days of employment.

For the October 3rd 2022 Layoff the Warn notice was posted September 30th... Thats a whole 3 days of notice. I'd expect the same here for the November lay offs. We might get 3 days (over a weekend). That was Friday September 30th... Workers were notified the next Monday October 3rd...

The reason I post this is we can't rely on Oracle warn notices to prepare for a layoff.

https://www.crn.com/news/cloud/oracle-lays-off-201-employees-in-california

Oracle Lays Off 201 Employees In California
DAVID HARRIS
OCTOBER 12, 2022, 06:37 PM EDT
The cuts affected workers at Oracle offices in Redwood City, Calif., home to the tech giant’s former headquarters. The jobs that were affected included data scientists, application developers, marketing specialists and software developers.

Oracle has laid off more than 200 of its workers in California months after reports surfaced that the tech giant was considering “thousands” of job cuts on the heels of its $28 billion Cerner acquisition.

The Austin, Texas company cut 201 jobs in total on Oct. 3 from its Redwood City, Calif. office, according to its Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) filed in California. The job cuts took effect Oct. 3 and was received by the California Employment Development Department Sept. 30, according to the WARN.

In a letter to the state obtained by CRN, Oracle said the layoffs would be permanent and said that its Redwood Shores campus would not be closing as a result of the job cuts. Oracle formerly housed its headquarters in Redwood City, but moved it to Austin at the end of 2020.

Among the jobs cut in this round, according to the Aug. 4 letter to the state from Anje Dodson, senior vice president of human resources at Oracle: data scientists, application developers, marketing specialists and software developers.

As of this past May, Oracle employed approximately 143,000 full-time employees, of which about 48,000 are based in the U.S. and the rest internationally, according to a regulatory filing.

Oracle closed its acquisition of healthcare digital information system provider Cerner in June. The company began to notify employees of layoffs in early August, according to a report in The Information at the time. That matches with the date on the WARN notice, which states that this crop of employees received notification about the layoffs on August 4.

The company is the No. 1 employer in Redwood City, Calif. with over 6,500 workers there, according to the city.

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Expect Extreme Layoffs in November, $519 million Left and most likely will be paid out over the next few weeks

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