With Canada getting a 25% tariff on exports, is the price of natural gas and oil about to go up, or can the US make it just fine without our energy?
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VWO = Voluntary Workforce Option. Basically people were the given the option in 2020 to walk for favorable severance pay.
I agree that this likely won't happen again. But if there are layoffs, I hope that it affects our Canadian colleagues less so than Americans, as Republicans are the ones who voted us into this mess...
What is VWO situation?
"I hope it’s a VWO type situation so we have options vs blind layoffs"
VWO is not done when layoffs are required. It happens when reductions are desired, but not imminent. It is not coming back. If you didn't self-select then, you missed the window. The packaging terms will never, ever be as generous as they were under the voluntary program.
But I would not worry about immediate layoffs. If I were a betting man, I'd put 80% of my chips on no oil and gas tariffs.
The other 20% would be on the Canadian government messing it up by trying to use fuels as leverage.
Trump has stated he doesn’t need oil and gas from Canada. What is our premier Ms. Smith going to do? I’m also worried that PP won’t do much and will cave into Trump.
As you know Alberta pays more into the federal coffers which is then redistributed to the provinces on an equalization based. Without supporting Alberta now the rest of the country will not have these payments. This may cause a downturn in the Alberta economy, but will cause a recession in the rest of Canada. Where is Ontario and Quebec in all this? Premier Ford is trying to take advantage of the situation more than 18 months before a scheduled election. Right now is not the time to be an opportunist. Canada needs to stand united. Why are the cons in Ontario going to call an election right now? We know we will have a federal election in a few months. This lack of unity is really sad.
We must rally together to protect our economy. We know our largest export is oil and gas, followed by other resources.
I’d like to see leadership with the other provinces including opposition parties and federally. Now is not the time to cause a problem.
Check this article on Trump
https://globalnews.ca/news/10973971/donald-trump-canada-tariffs-oil-gas-davos/
Tariffs equal immediate layoffs. Guaranteed. I hope it’s a VWO type situation so we have options vs blind layoffs.
It also equals significant operational budget cuts. I’m sure they are prepping for the worst case scenario behind the scenes right now.
"...being the most arrogant and elitist in all of North America...."
Have ever been to Montreal? :) Just poking gentle fun.
Pointing out that Albertans are larger contributors to Canada's federal coffers than others isn't being anti-Canadian. It's just a statement of mathematical fact. And Albertans are generally okay with it.
https://financesofthenation.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Figure1v2-1536x845.png
It's a little hard to swallow when citizens of other provinces feel entitled to this distribution while badmouthing the people that fund it.
I understand blocking pipelines due to ethical objection. But still taking the blood money is hypocrisy. And hiding it in bureaucracy doesn't make it better.
What is PeePee going to do for Alberta? Is he going to avoid questions and eat an apple to questions he doesn’t like? He is a career politician for goodness sake!! He is going to rake in a platinum pension no matter what. Others are still struggling.
What has PP done for us in Alberta? I’m really worried as it looks like he doesn’t have a backbone. He will sell out to trump and musk.
We need real leadership in Ottawa. All I hear is axe the tax. I have yet to hear any decent policy. Has he ever introduced even a simple private members bill for anything (even something non partisan)?
Nationally the conservatives take advantage of Alberta because they know they can win most if not all seats provincially.
It really looks like Ms. Smith is the only one who is standing up for the rights of all Alberta. Remember if Alberta sneezes the rest of Canada catches a cold. We are the jugular vain - the main life line for Canada. Have we ever seen any premier really truly support Alberta?
Helping Alberta is and must be the main driving force to deal with trump and his tariffs.
Trump has said they don’t need our oil and gas. Where is the rest of Canada in our time of need. When the rest of country? We have shared our royalties with the rest of the Canada. Our taxes and equalization payments go to fund Quebec and its distinct society with is restrictions on speaking English (language police) and minority rights. We don’t do any of that yet you still give handouts to them. What about Atlantic Canada and Ontario?
Alberta has always given its blood to help the rest of the country. When has the rest of the country helped us other then tossing a few coins at us?
Canada - It’s time you step up to the plate for Alberta this time so we don’t have a national crisis on our hands.
We need to standup for Alberta and its natural resources. The rest of Canada cannot do without Alberta and its resources or the money from federal equalization payments. Quebec always is first in line with their “distinct society” hands out, then we have the lefties in BC, Atlantic Canada, and yes even the conservative government in Ontario has their hands out.
This all needs to stop. When will the rest of Canada see you look after Alberta you look after the entire country.
The last two posts show why Albertans are being criticized for being anti-canadian and for also being the most arrogant and elitist in all of North America.
For the rest of Canadians we apologize for all short comings and the zero benefit we provide to you as citizens.
Kindly shut the door on your way out - the draft from your province is giving us colds.
That silly debunking article boils down to the idea that "Alberta" as a government isn't contributing disproportionately. But as soon as you change it to "Albertans", they are. Add it all up, including health care funding, and Albertans pay the most per capital for the least in services.
But to the comment about building east to the refineries in Canada, there's not much point. There is not enough refined products demand in Canada to absorb all of that transformed crude, and the US is not interested in buying it. We would be sitting on gasoline we couldn't sell.
Uh, not really debunked, Eh?
It's simple, the people of Alberta pay far more in federal taxes than they receive back in benefits from the goverment. They are therefore supporting the other provinces who receive MORE in benefits than what they pay in taxes.
Just think what Alberta could do for it's population if all those taxes stayed home in Alberta?
https://albertaworker.ca/politics/debunking-the-conservative-myth-about-equalization-payments/
Debunked buddy.
"Could the Canadian Government nationalize the pipeline assets and take control if necessary?"
If they did, it would fail swiftly. The flight of capability would leave them unable to operate it. Not to mention the damage it would do to the general climate of business in Canada. Once the Canadian Government shows themselves willing to abandon contract law and basic protective rights for businesses, the flight of capital and investment would commence.
The only play they have would be like Transmountain. Buy it legally. But that has been a debacle and there's no reason to think a larger, more complex entity could be absorbed any better.
"Bye, Bye Alberta - good riddance. You didn't want to be a part of Canada."
Well, you say that now... but your standard of living would drop. Considerably.
Western separatists have a better case to make than, say, Quebecers. And yet they never got similar traction. Most Albertans don't want to leave... but we're also tired of being an abused piggy bank.
I would say no. Liberals took a beating on this for many years for buying a pipeline - and with the blue bomber PP getting ready to take office I don’t expect he has the will power nor patriotic outlook to do this in Canada.
The hook IMO isn’t that US needs our oil for domestic purposes but that a lot of refineries and products derived from refineries need this oil. This means that US Oil Refineries would have to pay premiums and pass that back on to the customer. These products are major exports for the US and you can be sure retalitory tariffs can and will be put on US exports.
This means all those countries craving US oil will get hit with double whammy, including Canada and look to other energy sources - which will hasten the decline of fossil fuels. Maybe for the better? I’m sure the earth will appreciate it.
O’Leary and Smith are involved obviously cause of Greggy and the AI plant they are touting.
I agree with a few other statements here - this will be a closed door transfer of money from CEOs to various levels. The US can risk their dominance in oil exports and the game they are playing is dangerous.
Could the Canadian Government nationalize the pipeline assets and take control if necessary?
remember - starting monday, all our company has to do is contribute to financially to the US republican party. That's it - that's all.
Our leaders do not respect anything but dollars - there are no borders, there is no canada, us, etc. in the eyes of western business leaders anymore.
They will buy their way out these tariffs, just like every other major corporate leader is doing right now. I guarantee this comment will get down voted 1000 times, but that is the reality.
starting monday is the start of corporate led western world, governments are just pawns of these institutions now - and i guarantee our business leaders have greased enough wheels politically to avoid tariffs. The precedent was already set in Ontario when they greased the conservatives to reverse unfavorable decisions for the company - they will do it again.
What Canadians don't understand is that all that oil in Alberta belongs to the US. It's just sitting in Canada untill it comes home to the US.
Wanna change this? Build that pipeline to the refineries in eastern Canada, cause if you don't, the only one on the planet who can buy Canadian crude is the US. There are NO other markets you can get to.
Did you see the picture of Greg with Danielle Smith on E-Link? We have obviously bought our way into the politics on this one and Alberta will align with the US against the rest of Canada.
No worries - US will not apply tariffs to Alberta as bought their way out of this with the republican party in the US.
Bye, Bye Alberta - good riddance. You didn't want to be a part of Canada. It's obvious that the release of Enbridge backed export statements by Provincial government and it's stance that it will not join solidarity in fighting Trump means the companies interests are protected against Tariffs.
The U.S. isn't logistically ready to forgo Canadian crude oil. The U.S. won't apply tariffs on it either, for that reason. The danger is that some Canadians try to turn off the taps as a bargaining chip for other tariffs,.
In the short term it might work, but the U.S. would then pursue independence from Canadian crude. Once they build infrastructure to move around their own supplies, they can detach from Canada, leaving stranded assets all over Alberta, and a gaping hole in the federal budget.
It's like when the Saudis tried to flood the market with supply in an attempt to drive the shale companies in the U.S. out of business. Instead, they forced them to become better run and more efficient. Complete backfire,