When I was just starting out I was very young and only now do I see that I have stayed longer than needed in the company. I guess one becomes complacent and doesn’t think long term about career, and then after a few years finds themselves in trouble. In essence, no matter what the atmosphere in the company is, whether it is toxic or not, whether the company is stable or not, I would not recommend any new hires to stay here for too long. To keep our skillset evolving we need to change jobs regularly every few years. Would you guys agree?
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It really depends on what your skillset is. Nike is management heavy, so people with those types of skills tend to reap the most benefits. If your skills tend to fall under the "individual contributor" umbrella, you will probably see your industry pass you by while you spin your wheels. You'll either have projects that go nowhere or end up being asked to do more and more outside of your area of expertise. The trick is to figure out how to get the most bang for your buck for your time at Nike and use it to land your next job (most likely somewhere else).
If you'd gotten hired as an IC 15-20 years ago you would've had a totally different experience, but Nike is a different company now.
OP, I do not think there a specific "formula" to determine how long one should stay at a given job. There is no right or wrong answer either because it truly depends on the individual and those unique circumstanced of such individual. As far as skills and keeping sharp, those do not have to only be acquired on the job; there are several other methods. Once acquired or maintained you map apply them to your job as much as possible or, at that time, determine if you want to move on to a different job. Really, it all depends on you and your situation. Another scenario: what of someone is, say, 8 years away from retirement? Should I seek another job? Will it be worth it? Do I stay until I retire? It all depends.