U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) increased by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 523.2 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.
the storage filled faster in the US because no exports of crude were allowed, yet global storage is full as well.
additions to the strategic reserve in non-OECD countries are not reported and hence are part of the missing barrels.
not all the uncompleted wells will be completed (they were drilled on $100 economics and across the play - not the sweetspot).
@GrT9SwL-6mrb So you mean to tell me that we are the only country exporting ... Never mind Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia etc. yes we are exporting but we are not exporting heavy oil we are only exporting sweet oil , higher API oil, the only country that likes importing that stuff is China and to an extent Europe. Now we are also competing with countries that also have sweet and heavy oil exports and their costs are lower to produce. So I ask you this if we are not exporting heavy oil, and we have few countries importing our sweet oil but not in large quantities, and any uptick in oil their is a surge in oil production. Does that mean that we will work off these inventories in the US in a short period of time. Keep in mind there is also between 3000-7000 drilled uncompleted wells in th US so just because you don't see and increase in rig count doesn't mean we don't have wells being completed on every oil spike. This is going to take a long time to draw down these inventories.
The glut started in the US and storage built here fastest as exports were not allowed. The implication of lower storage is that it will take less time to work off - lower for longer is overstated.
@GrT9SwL-5nge So if the glut overstated can you enlighten me and tell me why all of lower 48 has 3 rigs going for the entire upstream assets. Is it because these missing barrels are fantasy? You f---ing moron you know nothing about the oil and gas business. Put your damn headphones on and keep streaming music while you are at your desk!
Yes, I think the oil glut is overstated as half of it is catagorised as missing. The "actual" demand, supply and OECD storage numbers are in reality the official forecast which is subject to revision. "Missing" barrels that go into strategic petroleum reserve storage in non-OECD countries is not storage as it is not available to the market. The glut is overstated.
@GrT9SwL-4amm So what are you insinuating that the overwhelming oil glut doesn't exist? What are you some kind of moron. You must be some kool-aid drinking dumb ass that thinks oil will be going back up.. Its not! Its going down right now.
Rig count going up?
Take a look at the "miscellaneous" balance item - half the storage is either due to errors in demand numbers, supply numbers, because the barrels are in strategic reserves or because its being stored in unknown locations. The numbers you see are really forecasts as the real numbers for deamnd, supply and stirage take a year to confirm if ever. There was a reason for excess supply in North America (shale) but how did this excess storage find itself worldwide. I think the demand / supply balance is overestimated and that the "missing" barrels never existed ...
I wish I was high!
Not yet. But it will. Keep an eye out for the bankruptcies and that one phone call that's coming to an office near you!
The sky is falling the sky is falling. ....
Yep. Also if oil prices continue to go up then drilling, completions, and production will increase across the entire United States. It's a double edge sword folks unfortunately we will see another leg down on prices high 20's, Cop will forced to cut the dividend soon for a second time, and there will be more cuts to opex. More layoffs to come stayed tuned. Inventory amounts are not declining!!!!