Thread regarding Intel Corp. layoffs

The stock is drifting upward along with the market, but both face some headwinds as tariffs take hold, and are also being used for debt reduction. Consumer (tariff) tax and debt reduction are good for the country, but not good for the market bubble.

Think of the tariffs as a consumer tax, only different from a VAT tax in that it is focused on imports. This makes the US more like the majority of major economies, instead of being welfare for those other economies.

Market may or may not get some kind of upside surprise on Intel, if the administration decides to nationalize the company or maybe just Foundry.

Absent that, and the stock is at risk of a lower high, then being dragged down with the market in the Fall, and this Fall may be more of a Fall than usual.

If IFS is spun off, the announcement might push the stock to $30 or something, but good luck trading that (and it will just be a trade) in the Intel Stock Fund, or RSUs, unless they are open for trading. That is, if you are under insider rules.

Same is true if Ch11 filing is part of the strategy, of IFS or Intel itself. Many would be trapped.

Better to use OTM options, going out at least a few months but probably don't need to go out a year. Just see where the implied volatility cost becomes too high and stay just inside of that. Buy some puts and buy some calls, then volatility is your friend, because one way or the other (and maybe both ways), it is coming.

@fr My individual semi picks are up way more than that, but nothing wrong with using a reasonable cost actively traded fund to diversify across the sector.

I have a list of funds to go after, when the market valuation has swung the other way for a while.

@fm vvvv Correction, +60%

@fm I've been in this fund for almost 3 years. I'm very aware of how it can move aggressively in either direction. Currently up ~50%.

@fg There are a bunch of similar semi funds.

I've been focused on trading individual stocks but would shift most of that to funds if and when the gov't allows inflation to abate enough to enable a recession, and I won't touch a passive fund because they are all invested in the same dozen stocks regardless of what they claim is their objective.

Remember, those same passive funds work in reverse in a downturn. They will outperform wildly to the downside.

@be Hilarious!

@fg Thanks for calling that out. Fantastic chart!

@a2 I have over $300K in FSELX. Phenomenal fund!

@a2 the best semi etf for intel people is SMH, because that's what they generally do when they look at INTC.

@aa I wouldn't worry about ESPP. Your shares are created when they give them to you, so you are not holding shares the entire period.

RSUs and the stock plan are where a person should give some thought, especially for the people who (for whatever reason that makes no sense to me) have chosen to just let both of those grow over years.

This will be resolved likely within a month or maybe even days, then look at the situation and reallocate.

Early on in investing I learned the very hard way not to pile into a stock just because it was going down in price, and that is because there is a reason even if I don't understand what it is. New lows beget new lows.

The bottom on all stocks is $0. Some get there sooner than others.

You can buy intel $0 dollar stock for a 15% discount and quick sell for $0 😂

@aa Your question should be: "when is bankruptcy?"... None of us here will know exactly when that is, by design.

ESPP next week in jeopardy?

@a4 Sage advice. If an Employee isn't thinking about this already, then what are you thinking about? That upside scenario has HUGE risk built into it. So if it's FU money, do the cr-p-shoot!

btw, whether anyone owns or doesn't own the stock means nothing to the price.

All the workers could sell and some hedge fund will buy, and it nets to a few pennies difference.

This is about considering risk at a time when that risk has become substantial.

@a1 Thanks, I trade the stock but never held it while employed.

I really liked what LBT was doing, till I saw how DJT was reacting.

There are many stories out there about PGE linemen who are still working 20 something years later because they lost everything and were not diversified.

The stock fund limits the holding to 20% but that can still be far more than someone can risk if the risk of holding it suddenly goes way up, as it now has done.

A person could ease out, then come back later if the worst case scenario doesn't pan out. I don't think this is going to go on for much longer, one way or the other.

Intel is at best following the market, so a person who thinks this is still a good time to be in semis could do just as well owning a semi ETF. Fidelity has a good one (FSELX?), but there are many others. I think semis are being set up for big cyclical downside, led by AI.

@OP Thank you for the advice FY!