I never would have believed that Noble could be in such a position that it’s stock closed at $3.02/sh. That equates to a market capitalization that probably doesn’t even cover the Houston Ivory Towers cost. Time to Re-boot the entire management/ BOD and get some fresh innovative thinking. I feel so sorry for the current employees. Time to give real internal thought to a career change. It’s looking like the glory days of the oilfield is over.
8 replies (most recent on top)
I'm glad that you aren't a fan of cutting. However, don't delude yourself into thinking more cuts will make this company viable. It won't. Instability is the hallmark of this management. Even during the good times it was clear to anyone mildly astute that this "leadership" was in over their heads. Instead of developing a sustainable business plan they wasted their time chasing the analyst recommendation du jour and groveling in the lowly weeds of GAP.
Now we have a new crisis. Yet, the current situation was entirely predictable. Not the trigger, but the big downward price swing certainly was. It's simple math, you can’t keep over producing in an industry over producing and not expect anything different. This simple fact should have been evident, especially when the industry has a long history of similar events. But still, Noble management didn't see it.
Now the bill has come due. Sadly, you’ll get your wish. It’s unavoidable. They’ve already unloaded most of the marketable assets. The only thing left to slash is the staff. It won’t be done for some noble plan (pun intended) to make the company viable either. No, they’ll do it just to maintain control. That’s how DS and his boys roll, they’ll do anything to achieve that end. It’s the only business plan they’ve every had.
It didn’t have to be this way.
not a fan of cutting but I can read and count. WTI is $23.50 this morning. I assume that I will not be getting a Noble payday much longer. It would be foolish for anybody to think they are "safe".
Since you're such a fan of cutting, I don't think anyone would mind if they started with you.
Because of Leviathan, Noble is much better off than most small oil companies. Cut expenditures to the bone & then cut some more. Cut execs, cut high level employees, cut low level employees, and cut exploration again.
I'm not certain buying right now would be a good idea, given the parlous status of Noble's finances. Remember that Noble has been going to be "cash-flow positive next year" for the last 5 years. Leviathan was going to save Noble ("we'll have more money than we know how to spend"), but that was dedicated to debt service and share buybacks to pump up the stock. The market will probably come up with some way to dismember the company without having to take on the debt. Maybe spin off the Eastern Med and have a fire sale for the rest.
Mr/Ms Buy,
You’re comment illustrates the problem: “If I were a betting person”.
The oil business isn’t gambling or at least it shouldn’t be. It’s a risk management business. But Noble leadership and people like you (an employee I presume) don’t understand managing risk. You choose instead to gamble. Just like Vegas, success comes rarely from that strategy.
That reality is vividly reflected in Noble’s results. This company destroys value, over and over and over again. Marcellus, Falklands, ABU, Nevada, East Med, GOM, on and on and on. The market recognizes that fact and has assigned an appropriate value to the company because of it.
But never mind. Go ahead and gamble your bonus. Your job’s already a gamble, why shouldn’t your savings be too.
Me? Smart money sticks to investing.
Noble is heading to the trash bin. Have been ever since DS took over. The guy should be stocking shelves at Kroger.
You're ignorant if you think the BOD has anything to do with the stock price right now. You're right. The market cap doesnt even cover Noble's material assets... Billions of dollars of infrastructure. If I were a betting person... I'd gamble that the market will recognize this. So instead of spewing your BS.. take your 2015 severance pay and buy buy buy