Give your opinions on whether or not you think America is in a recession.
52 replies (most recent on top)
Let it all crash.
Everyone can make money in an up market, even the stupids. But when the tide goes out, you see who doesn't have swimsuit bottoms.
High tides raise all boats. Low tied exposes all the amateur's. Grit, grind, and knowledge, is gained from the low tide, not the high tide.
Unfortunately it's going to be greater than a recession and great recession this time around. We've likely been in recession for nearly two years now, but they won't acknowledge it. The bubble of all bubbles propping it up. That is the power of the podium to hold it off, but the noose is tightening.
I have no horses in anyone's race. I care not if you come out of this on top or not, but I do know that this coming event is going to deliver a grand humiliation unto a multitude of people. I remember in my youth, hearing from people how they lost 50-75% of their 401k value, at a specific time they needed to retire. 2001, 2008, and now 20XX. It's always in the timing. With enough time you can earn it back sure, but when you want or need to retire and no more years left in yourself, is the value going to be there? Timing.
The OEMs and Tier ones (1) are in downsize mode now, I know a few eliminating starting this coming Monday, and not as a first attempt at downsize. Surprise, just in time for the Holidays. Most OEMS received record raises this year, UAW, etc. Most of the tiers did not. Most of the tiers received zero (0) in salary increase, and the hourly workforce was reduced. Does this not ring a reminder of a 2007 / 2008 repeat? Concession time for the unions...
Stellantis, fell on it's face these last two quarters. How does a stock fall 50% with as large as a behemoth as it is globally? It's the first domino to fall among many.
And now, a specialty of mine. Made a few record calls here on this one. Feb 2020, "GO buy some TP", shts about to get real. How did I know? Enter March 2020 covid fcking bs. I know how to read stock market charts and anticipate boons and busts, and could link back to those posts if I wanted. I don't like you all enough these days, sorry. You will either investigate, or do nothing and find out. I care not, not my horse in the race. The school of hard knocks is always accepting students.
Yeah, sure, don't believe you... But, markets are at their all time highs. Ready to roll over. All the indicators and overlays suggest this. Do you chart read? Do you TA? Could you tell whether they're ready to pull the rug on unsuspecting people? Most people can't. "2030, you will own nothing and be happy." If they fleece your wealth away in the market, that seems pretty self evident.
Buy the dip...
Buy the dip...
Buy the dip...
Stock will always go higher...
Buy the dip...
Buy the dip...
Stock will always go higher...
Until it's not the dip any longer.
Off subject:
Vaccines are good.
Vaccines are good.
Vaccines are good.
Covid 19 vaccine likely ki-led as many or more than the virus.
Sorry about that. The science wasn't accurate, will you forgive us?
They wait on that one point in time, where trust is at ITS HIGHEST, to rug pull the public for a grand fleecing.
It's going to be exciting. You will end up where you are, exactly as prescribed by your accumulation of knowledge and intellect. Your boon, and your failure will be yours to own.
It's fair. It's just. It's not like they don't warn us what's coming.
"The US labor market added far fewer jobs than expected in October as weather disruptions and worker strikes weighed on the labor market.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the labor market added 12,000 payrolls in October, less than the 100,000 expected by economists."
Beyond this... more downward revised jobs to the tune of over 100,000!
Don't worry though, if Mr. T is at the helm, suddenly the real jobs and inflation data will be shocking. From that point on, it will be terrible and it will be his fault.
No, definitely not in a recession.
#yolo
@Disk+1uDjiIgK
100% true and the kind of information that upsets people here who have a poverty mindset.
They YOLO it up with cruises, McMansions and expensive cars and lose everything in a crash when they lose their jobs. Then the smart people buy it all up for pennies on the dollar. The sad thing is that they repeat the same mistakes again and again while blaming whoever is president or "the billionaires".
Down-voting gives them comfort.
Post ID: @8iod+1uDjiIgK
Because it's an opportunity to do things you couldn't do while times were good.
Second, you can make more money in a crash than you can during a run up.
Third, because if you are holding cash of any kind, the crushing deflationary effect that results, while temporary, will increase your purchasing power in that moment and for a short while after.
Fourth, because it will reign in the high prices a bit, forcing manufactures and producers to slit their own throat to make a sale. The 200-300% run up in prices may recede back down to only 100% from where it all started. The economy will stumble as the monetary velocity stalls, and then it will give the FED a new excuse to print.
There's a silver lining in every tragedy. You only have to position yourself to take advantage of it. Or like most people, not. One way or another, it's going to happen.
@Chkk+1uDjiIg
"People who live every day in fear of..."
This isn't a confessional. Please repent for your intolerant, repulsive views.
People who live every day in fear of brown people and g-ys think everything is terrible, despite facts to the contrary.
The same people who live in fear every day of a layoff also think everything is awesome.
@qhsf+1uDjiIgK
"poorly managed business"
According to a survey released Thursday by Bankrate, a financial analytics firm, 37% of American credit card holders have maxed out or nearly maxed out on their card limits since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022.
According to the survey, more than half of the respondents who had gone deep into credit card debt blamed inflation, which has reduced the value of the U.S. dollar by more than 20% since 2021 and left many Americans struggling to afford basic necessities. The second reason, cited by 38% of respondents, was unexpected emergency expenses.
Can you please down-vote this so it's not real? You can simply decide that negative data isn't real.
By your logic, almost half of of Americans have "poorly managed" households. That's the reason they are in big trouble and struggling. Variables like inflation and high interest rates aren't applicable. Right? And 39% of Americans struggle to pay their bills. Mismanagement? By your logic, 50% drop in sales are due to mismanagement from the company's side though. Everything is awesome.
As long as you are getting paid and feeling great, sure there are no issues.
It's you against the world. Kudos for the great perspective.
39% of Americans worry they can’t pay the bills
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/23/business/inflation-cost-of-living-cnn-poll/index.html
Sounds like Stellantis is a poorly managed business.
The free market always punished such.
One company doesn't represent whole economy.
Stellantis sales down 50% YOY.
CEO announced pending plant closings and brand reductions.
Definitely not in a recession.
Great time for the UAW to make threats.
Wake up people.
We get to decide whether or not inflation is real, jobs are inflated, and whether there's a recession or not.
By down-voting facts that contradict our feelings, we shape reality.
Everything is awesome. Please don't rain on our parade.
“ Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says”
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/nonfarm-payroll-growth-revised-down-by-818000-labor-department-says.html
———————-
“ Doesn't sound like a recession.”
LOL okay Jan
To see the future, we need only look to the past, which is playing out in precisely the same manner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXg24HoMGBU
Comparing October 2007 with October 2024, not only are the interest rate numbers the same, the playbook from the is Fed the same, same DOW record high, but also the mainstream media's reactions and talking points. A scripted playback of 2007-2009.
Cash for clunkers, $5 foot longs, McDonalds dollar menu etc. are going to reappear in 3...2...1...
@drtg+1uDjiIgK
"Proof that the numbers are rigged?"
New data shows US job growth has been far weaker than initially reported
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/21/economy/bls-jobs-revisions/index.html
U.S. Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported Earlier
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/business/economy/us-jobs-economy.html
Because you down-voted my reply without any retort, I'm assuming you had a good dose of Kool-Aid. That's why I posted CNN & NYT. There are MANY, MANY more reports and this has happened with each report during this administration. At one point, the bottom will fall and you will be deeply affected. At that point, you will remember this conversation.
Proof that the numbers are rigged?
@cmxl+1uDjiIgK
Since 2021, every jobs report going back for years has been artificially pumped up and then revised downward.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/04/economy/us-jobs-report-september-final/index.html
@9uth+1uDjiIgK
K-pop all day my friend.
I just want my student loans paid off and I don’t want to hear about single mothers who never went to college having to foot the bill.
Tell us who you're voting for without telling us who you're voting for.
Why would any decent person root for the destruction of the economy?
In this article about the potential port strike, the NYT admits that inflation rose collectively 24%.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/business/economy/port-strike-ila-dockworkers.html
The dockworkers are demanding $45/hour. If the strike happens, half of all goods will not be shipped, causing scarcity and yet higher inflation on everything from medicine to car parts right at the important holiday season.
I hope the strike happens. I don't eat bananas or take medication. The stock market volatility is crazy as it is. Would be funny to watch all of the 'on paper' 401k millionaires lose 50%. Psychologically speaking, it will decimate the entire economy once people realize the magnitude and of course would accelerate job cuts. Only the strong will survive and I'll all in. So let's hope we hear about a port strike at 12:00am on Tuesday.
@7htn+1uDjiIgK
There’s nothing theoretical about the Federal Reserve printing trillions into existence (inflating the currency!) or the government spending trillions more on pork and stimulus. Further, people were locked down so production (supply) was limited as demand increased. People were given stimulus, spent like drunken sailors, which also contributed to inflation.
If you are having a “companies are greedy” fever dream, discounting all other facts, also remember that there was port congestion on both coasts, causing supply chain problems. Something we are likely to see after Tuesday. The fun is about to begin again!
So are you saying that's why companies raised their prices in America during the pandemic, causing inflation?
Or are you saying those things theoretically could have caused inflation over the last couple of years, even though they didn't?
@6fzy+1uDjiIgK
"Businesses set their prices, not the government."
Here are ten reasons you are wrong:
- Regulatory Pricing: Governments establish maximum or minimum prices for specific goods or services, such as rent control measures or price caps on essential goods like water or electricity.
- Taxes: Governments impose taxes on certain products or services, which can increase their prices. For example, a sales tax on luxury items or a carbon tax to encourage environmentally friendly behaviors.
- Subsidies: Governments provide financial support to specific industries or sectors, reducing their production costs and allowing them to set lower prices. Examples include farm subsidies or low-interest loans for small businesses.
- Tariffs: Governments impose tariffs (taxes) on imported goods to protect domestic industries or promote local production. This can lead to higher prices for consumers if the tariff is passed on through the supply chain.
- Price Controls: Governments set maximum prices for specific products or services, aiming to reduce inflation or ensure affordability. However, price controls can sometimes lead to shortages or black markets if suppliers are not able to recover their costs.
- Monetary Policy: Central banks, like the Federal Reserve in the United States, use monetary policy tools (e.g., interest rates and reserve requirements) to influence overall economic activity, including prices. Lowering interest rates, for example, can stimulate borrowing and spending, potentially leading to higher prices.
- Public-Private Partnerships: Governments collaborate with private companies to deliver public services or infrastructure projects. This can lead to price setting through contracts or agreements between the government and private partners.
- Regulatory Fees: Governments charge fees to industries or individuals for specific activities, such as licensing fees for businesses or environmental permits. These fees can affect prices by increasing costs or creating new revenue streams.
- Price Supports: Governments provide financial support to farmers or other producers to maintain stable prices and ensure a steady supply of goods. This can be done through programs like crop insurance or agricultural subsidies.
- Government Procurement: Governments purchase goods and services from private companies, setting prices for specific contracts or tenders. This can influence prices in the broader market if the government is a significant buyer.
Thank goodness the 'Inflation Reduction Act' made life livable for millions of Americans.
It's all part of the great success of the current administration. We can't go backwards from the greatest economy ever.
Businesses set their prices, not the government.
Businesses decide how much they pay their employees, not the government.
Are you arguing for socialism, comrade? Do you want government control?
@5ugt+1uDjiIgK
"It's not price cuts, which a lot of people seem to be expecting."
65%+ of Americans say they live paycheck to paycheck and there are senior citizens that can't cover rent and buy food or medicine.
I'm sure your thoughts on year-over-year inflation would be comforting to them.
I know a single mom with two daughters in High School. She's about to lose her house. She told me she is in 30% in the red with each paycheck (owing more to cover costs than what she's bringing in). The deadbeat dad is suing her for alimony and she keeps getting laid off. Her one daughter wants to go to college and thinks the mom can help with car repairs, clothing, etc. One real example from the real world where everything is awesome for the nouveau riche that are a layoff away from having the Tahoe repo'd.
Low inflation is a slower rate of price increases.
It's not price cuts, which a lot of people seem to be expecting.
"Why does a Pepsi cost more than it did in 1954? Bring back the old prices!"
@5bze+1uDjiIgK
“Why is inflation coming down?”
- You cited CNN. Not credible.
- You cite Qanon, which is a CIA fabrication. It’s not real.
- Almost no one believes inflation is coming down.
Very weak troll effort.
As for the QAnon theory of inflation, did the money supply or national debt get reduced?
QAnon blamed those things for inflation in present day America.
Why is inflation coming down?
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/27/economy/us-pce-inflation-august/index.html
If GM’s stock dips again due to their wasteful spending, they will just do more stupid stock buybacks and come up with some lame excuse to cut more people.
@3umv+1uDjiIgK
It has worked for over 100 years.
Besides, we are a tech company now.
We can fail fast and break things to make the world a better place.
Selling poor quality cars at premium prices isn't a winning business model.
https://eletric-vehicles.com/ford/morgan-stanley-cuts-rivian-gm-and-ford-price-targets/
https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/chrysler/2024/09/24/stellantis-uaw-worker-layoffs-external-market-conditions/75362821007/
“Soft landing”
The narrative will pivot 180 after the (s)election.
Moody’s just downgraded GM, Ford and Stellantis.
Also, car maker Stellantis has announced mass layoffs across it's entire footprint as the car market continues to show signs of weakness including falling prices, struggling sales, and a buildup of inventory.
The shoe dropped.
Americans are struggling but that struggle is invisible to people making higher incomes.
There is little seperating these lower and higher income classes other than "the job".
Both classes are living paycheck to paycheck.
When the layoffs and hiring freezes start, the arrogant people that flaunt fake wealth will get humbled. If this is you, please downvote this.
@1qtw+1uDjiIgK
"To get excessive inflation you have too much money chasing too few goods."
Inflation can also be caused by other variables, including money printing (INFLATING THE CURRENCY!) & government spending:
*Government policies (fiscal and monetary)
*Expectations - If people expect prices to rise...
*Supply shocks - Weather/natural disasters, wars, trade disputes, bio-w3apons funded by Marxists that cause lock-downs
*Global factors - Oil price shocks, exchange rates, financial crises, etc.
*Demand-Pull & Cost-Push Inflation - What you tried to cite; aggregate demand vs supply but also rising wages, raw material cost increases, energy costs etc.
@1uew+1uDjiIgK
"US inflation being caused by printing too much money is a QAnon idea."
That is perhaps the d-mbest thing I have ever seen on this board.
And that is really saying something.
"Read the Wikipedia article as the start of educating yourself."
LMBO That's too good. Thank you for that.
To get excessive inflation you have too much money chasing too few goods. It’s well established so for heavens sake quite spreading falsehoods.